Delay

[timstrong20]

How many of you think that you will not get your BRONCO in 2022, but in 2023?

All bets are off nowadays. If you have a simple build (soft top, etc.) then you will probably get in 22.

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[FirstOnRaceDay]

I think that's not quite it, but I have no visibility into Ford's process, just going off of what I've gleaned from my own exposures to the inner workings of the auto industry. I think it's more like this:

1) build slot schedule defined based on staff/environmental factors
2) slots assigned to dealerships based on the allocation schedule
3) slot populated with build selected from that dealer's order list based on:
a) parts availability for a particular combo
b) reservation timestamp, if any
c) order timestamp of consumer orders
d) dealer stock orders (though I suspect these have an entirely separate allocation schedule)

the end result being that if your dealer is low on the allocation priority schedule and you have a constrained build, you may be delayed indefinitely. Conversely, if your dealer is high on that priority schedule and you have a non-constrained or lightly-constrained build, you would get scheduled very quickly. An example is the tow package - if they only have enough weekly capacity to fill, say, 10% of the demand for tow packages then only the highest priority ones will get scheduled and the rest stay in the pool for the next scheduling event.

There could be some sort of rotating priority, there could be lots of factors I just haven't considered, but I'm pretty sure this isn't too far off from reality.

That sounds pretty accurate. There are MANY factors in order. Its NOT black and white. HOWEVER you can do research to see if your order is easy or harder to fill.
1 call your dealer and see what their allocation is and how many orders they have.
2 is your configuration easy or hard to build.
Based on those factors you should have an idea on how long it will take.

from what ive read, biggest issues are from most delayed to least
1 towing package
2 hard top
3 2 door
4 high trim or lux package
5 2.7L
6 manual trans
7 Sasquatch

the less of those you have the better