Delivery Reality

[FirstOnRaceDay]

So the timeline has become more clear, as well as the total reservations. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION

So there has been roughly 240,000 total reservations. And here at Bronco6G we have roughly 2,400 going to members. or 1/100
if I looked at the chart we have correctly about 2/3 (66.67%) or 1600 of you reserved your bronco within the first 48 hours (8pm 7/13-8pm 7/15) if that’s true for the entire USA we might be in for an interesting summer next year and here’s why.

figure only 2/3 (66.67%) will go through with ordering and purchasing. So 160,000. And 2/3 reserved that first 48 hours. So just over 100,000.

ford said deliveries will start in June 2021 (targeted) And extend into 2022. for the sake of this info I will guess it will end before the new year. So that’s 7 months to get all 160,000 out. Or 23,000 a month.

so it will take over 4 MONTHS (June - September) to deliver all the broncos ordered within those first 48 hours.
meaning If you ordered just 1 hour after someone else it could take a week longer to get yours.

BUT that’s we’re things get foggy.
Because Delivery’s will go in order AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to reservations.
however there are many factors at work.

1 Reservation Time - First in first out
2 First Editions - self explanatory
3 packaging (Body Style, Engine, Trim) - ford will try to build similar set ups at the same time.
4 Geographical location - where you are at will make a difference in time of delivery. People in the mid west will get their broncos before someone that orders at the same time as some one on the west cost.
5 Dealership size/ number of orders. - not a huge factor but if your ordering a bronco from BFE dealership it might take A little longer than city center mega dealer.

all of those factors aside from time of reservation could add a couple days To delivery.

dealer size and location is the main reason why you will be locked into your dealer on October 31st so ford can work out the logistics.

it will be interesting to see how long it actually takes ford to pump out all of these Broncos. Because 20-25,000 units a Month is a TALL ASK.

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[PELS82]

Not sure about the math and the percentage here that will order. I just think it would help a lot if they push the production schedule up a few weeks. Possible? I have no idea. Parts, testing, etc all are prerequisites. This could be what they expected all along.

 

[Markubis]

Well done breakdown. I also expect that vehicles that are getting sasquatch packags installed will have to be pulled out of the main assembly line and have it added before final prep stage so that will probably add more time to delivery as well.

 

[JaxGtc]

BUT that’s we’re things get foggy.
Because Delivery’s will go in order AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to reservations.
however there are many factors at work.

Nice overall assessment. I agree with you, order and delivery do get a bit foggy. While the aggregated reservation order is definitely the order to be followed, it gets disaggregated at the dealer level and then the build level where trims are grouped. I think expectations should be that you will be in a batch of maybe 5,000 similar folks in line. It pretty much puts you in the same week with those reservation peers of a couple thousand on either side of you.
I'm one of those that couldn't get in the first night, so I went to bed and did it the next morning. A good night sleep that probably cost me about 8 weeks.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Not sure about the math and the percentage here that will order. I just think it would help a lot if they push the production schedule up a few weeks. Possible? I have no idea. Parts, testing, etc all are prerequisites. This could be what they expected all along.

I assume the biggest part of why production is pushed so far back is due to government testing and approval (epa iihs etc)
As well as finalized assembly prep which was just NOW allowed to be restarted.

Well done breakdown. I also expect that vehicles that are getting sasquatch packags installed will have to be pulled out of the main assembly line and have it added before final prep stage so that will probably add more time to delivery as well.

I think Sasquatch is a assembly line package not a “add on.” Other wise ford is going to have a bunch of axles laying around

 

[Lonestar777]

Great analysis! I'm really curious to see the reservation to order conversion percentage, but I'd bet it's less than 50%. Just think about how many people here have multiple reservations! We may be converting reservations to orders before most of us have had a chance to see one in person, much less drive one, and a lot of people won't be comfortable with that.

 

[pan-y-cerveza]

We may be converting reservations to orders before most of us have had a chance to see one in person, much less drive one, and a lot of people won't be comfortable with that.

I think this will likely drop the orders even further.

 

[fitz73chrgr]

I agree that less than 50% of reservations will be turned into orders. A refundable $100 deposit is nothing and a car purchase sight unseen is a big commitment.

 

[Dmk08]

Great analysis.

My question to you. With the research you've done how many reservations do you think are before me?

I got my confirmation at 8:03p EST launch night and was one of the first posting here.

 

[Dmk08]

Great analysis! I'm really curious to see the reservation to order conversion percentage, but I'd bet it's less than 50%. Just think about how many people here have multiple reservations! We may be converting reservations to orders before most of us have had a chance to see one in person, much less drive one, and a lot of people won't be comfortable with that.

If no auto shows end up happening due to the pandemic Ford needs to do some viewing events.

 

[BuzzyBud]

Thank you for the reality check. We are all on a fascinating journey. This brings back memories of my long wait for a Chevy Citation to be delivered in 1980. What a terrible car! Luckily that experience drove me toward Ford vehicles. Times are different now and with fingers crossed I am hoping for a much better outcome.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Great analysis.

My question to you. With the research you've done how many reservations do you think are before me?

I got my confirmation at 8:03p EST launch night and was one of the first posting here.

not too many if your that early. You SHOULD get yours within the first week or so of delivery.

I agree that less than 50% of reservations will be turned into orders. A refundable $100 deposit is nothing and a car purchase sight unseen is a big commitment.

it’s hard to say. Because there has never been anything like this. A mass production vehicle you can reserve.

If no auto shows end up happening due to the pandemic Ford needs to do some viewing events.

as of right now SEMA and LA Auto are both on track to be open this November.

 

[gryphon1231]

So the timeline has become more clear, as well as the total reservations. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION

So there has been roughly 240,000 total reservations. And here at Bronco6G we have roughly 2,400 going to members. or 1/100
if I looked at the chart we have correctly about 2/3 (66.67%) or 1600 of you reserved your bronco within the first 48 hours (8pm 7/13-8pm 7/15) if that’s true for the entire USA we might be in for an interesting summer next year and here’s why.

figure only 2/3 (66.67%) will go through with ordering and purchasing. So 160,000. And 2/3 reserved that first 48 hours. So just over 100,000.

ford said deliveries will start in June 2021 (targeted) And extend into 2022. for the sake of this info I will guess it will end before the new year. So that’s 7 months to get all 160,000 out. Or 23,000 a month.

so it will take over 4 MONTHS (June - September) to deliver all the broncos ordered within those first 48 hours.
meaning If you ordered just 1 hour after someone else it could take a week longer to get yours.

BUT that’s we’re things get foggy.
Because Delivery’s will go in order AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to reservations.
however there are many factors at work.

1 Reservation Time - First in first out
2 First Editions - self explanatory
3 packaging (Body Style, Engine, Trim) - ford will try to build similar set ups at the same time.
4 Geographical location - where you are at will make a difference in time of delivery. People in the mid west will get their broncos before someone that orders at the same time as some one on the west cost.
5 Dealership size/ number of orders. - not a huge factor but if your ordering a bronco from BFE dealership it might take A little longer than city center mega dealer.

all of those factors aside from time of reservation could add a couple days To delivery.

dealer size and location is the main reason why you will be locked into your dealer on October 31st so ford can work out the logistics.

it will be interesting to see how long it actually takes ford to pump out all of these Broncos. Because 20-25,000 units a Month is a TALL ASK.

I have a solution to this problem. Ford should STOP production on the Bronco Sport and just focus on production of the Big Bronco.

 

[Dmk08]

not too many if your that early. You SHOULD get yours within the first week or so of delivery.





it’s hard to say. Because there has never been anything like this. A mass production vehicle you can reserve.




as of right now SEMA and LA Auto are both on track to be open this November.

Yeah I was kind of nuts. I had my account ready, didn't even read the packages just selected FE, and wasn't even paying attention to the launch until after I was confirmed.

 

[Jhuff]

4 Geographical location - where you are at will make a difference in time of delivery. People in the mid west will get their broncos before someone that orders at the same time as some one on the west cost.

I am hoping this is how it works, as I live about one hour from the plant. ?

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