NJ/NY/Delaware/Eastern Pa./MD/Ct Volume Buyers?

[PowPow]

ok. So got my headliner added (updated DORA provided and all) and am confirmed to be within Fred Beans allocations for MY21. (yay!)

so my question to you guys, before we get our delivery date in May. What is your best guess on when you think I'll get my bronco? I'm a 7/16 reservation, 4 door BD with none of the delayed items.

I understand none of us really know anything (and won't till May), but we've all got some type of timing in our heads. I'm just curious if the timing in my head lines up with others thinking.

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[EvlNvrDys]

ok. So got my headliner added (updated DORA provided and all) and am confirmed to be within Fred Beans allocations for MY21. (yay!)

so my question to you guys, before we get our delivery date in May. What is your best guess on when you think I'll get my bronco? I'm a 7/16 reservation, 4 door BD with none of the delayed items.

I understand none of us really know anything (and won't till May), but we've all got some type of timing in our heads. I'm just curious if the timing in my head lines up with others thinking.

Yeah... I just can't answer that.

My res is 7/15, and I currently sit at #91 in dealer allocations. Based on those waiting for MY22, and if I subtract for FE orders, I should drop to #63 out of 64 allocations. But I have 3 of the deadly sins, so peeps later than me could leapfrog me.

In your case, we don't know who is below you currently. That's the missing link. Sure your build doesn't have any of the sins, but if there are a ton before you with that earlier stamp, you could be late 21. Or you could be September... Just don't know. Sorry.

 

[PowPow]

Yeah... I just can't answer that.

My res is 7/15, and I currently sit at #91 in dealer allocations. Based on those waiting for MY22, and if I subtract for FE orders, I should drop to #63 out of 64 allocations. But I have 3 of the deadly sins, so peeps later than me could leapfrog me.

In your case, we don't know who is below you currently. That's the missing link. Sure your build doesn't have any of the sins, but if there are a ton before you with that earlier stamp, you could be late 21. Or you could be September... Just don't know. Sorry.

True true... but since I'm already within allocations anyone below that either is waiting till MY22 or has the delayed items, that's only going to help me.

And there certainly won't be a ton before me. I don't think the dealer converted a lot... I remember him saying back in Jan they had about 150 reservations, so based on that other post, if you go with the national average, 65% (i think) converted. So that's 98 orders. and I think allocations has been around 40%? So that's 39 Bronco's being delivered in MY21. (all assumptions!)

I think at this point, it's just a matter of my timestamp. Even if 38 of the orders before me (say I'm #39) are Day 1, that shouldn't push me back. It's not like they're going to wait on delivering early timestamps. They'll build and deliver. Get what I'm saying? i.e. #38 won't be in Dec just bc they're 2nd to last at the dealership. Hell, if my thinking is correct, these dealerships on here that offered deals and can only sell to Day 1 or Day 2 people may get a ton of Bronco's in June/July/Aug, and then won't see another till Jan. I don't think Ford is going to distribute evenly. They'll be built based on timestamp.

sorry, bit a ramble, but hopefully my point is understood?

also... it's not like i'm really expecting anyone to know. I'm just curious to what others might think. I fully know none of us really have any idea. just playing a little guessing game I guess...

gotta fill the time till may somehow!

 

[teevan]

ok. So got my headliner added (updated DORA provided and all) and am confirmed to be within Fred Beans allocations for MY21. (yay!)

so my question to you guys, before we get our delivery date in May. What is your best guess on when you think I'll get my bronco? I'm a 7/16 reservation, 4 door BD with none of the delayed items.

I understand none of us really know anything (and won't till May), but we've all got some type of timing in our heads. I'm just curious if the timing in my head lines up with others thinking.

I have a non-squatch BL with Lux and 2.7, but I think am number 6 on the list at Brewster. So while my options may cause some issues, I am still hoping to get mine this summer, hoping by July/August. But its really hard to say at this point. I could see getting pushed out to the Fall depending on how things shape up.

Since you have a base without the sins, you may sneak in before me.

 

[EvlNvrDys]

True true... but since I'm already within allocations anyone below that either is waiting till MY22 or has the delayed items, that's only going to help me.

And there certainly won't be a ton before me. I don't think the dealer converted a lot... I remember him saying back in Jan they had about 150 reservations, so based on that other post, if you go with the national average, 65% (i think) converted. So that's 98 orders. and I think allocations has been around 40%? So that's 39 Bronco's being delivered in MY21. (all assumptions!)

I think at this point, it's just a matter of my timestamp. Even if 38 of the orders before me (say I'm #39) are Day 1, that shouldn't push me back. It's not like they're going to wait on delivering early timestamps. They'll build and deliver. Get what I'm saying? i.e. #38 won't be in Dec just bc they're 2nd to last at the dealership. Hell, if my thinking is correct, these dealerships on here that offered deals and can only sell to Day 1 or Day 2 people may get a ton of Bronco's in June/July/Aug, and then won't see another till Jan. I don't think Ford is going to distribute evenly. They'll be built based on timestamp.

sorry, bit a ramble, but hopefully my point is understood?

also... it's not like i'm really expecting anyone to know. I'm just curious to what others might think. I fully know none of us really have any idea. just playing a little guessing game I guess...

gotta fill the time till may somehow!

Allow me to shoot your theory down

I talk quite a bit to a dealer who used to be on this forum. No skin in the game with him, so he has no reason to lie. And I've grown to trust him.

1. If I dealer has 40 allocations (let's say all are day 1 & 2), they don't get all 40 of them in the 1st batch of trucks. Those 40 are spread out from June/July through December.
2. I know of someone with a mid-August reservation who happens to be #1 at his chosen dealer. If he holds that #1 position, he will in fact get his Bronco well before even Day 2 reservations at other dealers because Ford isn't going to make 1 dealer wait for their allocation just because the res is later.
3. Brings us back to the beginning, really depends on your spot in line at FB and what the orders ahead of you look like.


I wish I could tell you that you'd have yours maybe late summer. But with all the unknowns, I can't. At least you got your sound deadening headliner

 

[BigBronco1]

I'm just curious to what others might think. I fully know none of us really have any idea. just playing a little guessing game I guess...

I'll take a shot:
From prior information we knew that Ford had ~ 200K reservations and that allocations were 30%. So the assumption was they could build ~ 70K in 2021.

If they begin order production in early May as stated previously, that equated to approximately 300 broncos built per day (up to 12/31).

For me, based on reservation #, I believe I'm somewhere around res # 16,000. So on the assumption all orders are equal, that would mean my Bronco would be built around day 53. using May 3rd as the start day that is June 25th for a build date. I believe it takes a day or so down the line but I have no idea. So if we then give it a few weeks to be loaded and shipped, l'm thinking I might see my Bronco around mid-July.

As for deadly sins, the only one I have is the 2.7L which I'm not concerned about...if they run into issues with those in first 2 months they're f*d anyway. On the flip side, who in front of me may have opted for MY22, dealer allocations, etc.. For sake of argument I'll assume these all wash together to no impact. So that's my answer, I'll be ripping a Race Red Bronco by mid-July.

For you @PowPow it's hard to say. Partly because when I look for your res # on the main order page it's 1 digit less than mine...I'm operating on the assumption first res # was 10114000, mine is 10130XXX.

 

[PowPow]

Allow me to shoot your theory down

I talk quite a bit to a dealer who used to be on this forum. No skin in the game with him, so he has no reason to lie. And I've grown to trust him.

1. If I dealer has 40 allocations (let's say all are day 1 & 2), they don't get all 40 of them in the 1st batch of trucks. Those 40 are spread out from June/July through December.
2. I know of someone with a mid-August reservation who happens to be #1 at his chosen dealer. If he holds that #1 position, he will in fact get his Bronco well before even Day 2 reservations at other dealers because Ford isn't going to make 1 dealer wait for their allocation just because the res is later.
3. Brings us back to the beginning, really depends on your spot in line at FB and what the orders ahead of you look like.


I wish I could tell you that you'd have yours maybe late summer. But with all the unknowns, I can't. At least you got your sound deadening headliner

heh. very interesting...

I would've assumed they'd make that smaller dealership wait, TBH. Respect the timestamp...

So if you're lucky enough to find a small dealership with no reservations, you get to leapfrog the rest of us that reserved within the first few days? that doesn't seem fair.

OH, and since this is a Northeast thread... it's Opening Day!! GO YANKEES!!

 

[brocotect]

Man I just dont know.

I have a 7/14 res at 7:43am and my only sin is the 2.7.

I'm 28 in line at Brewster and assume in the first wave allocation.

July delivery would be amazing but honestly I'm not expecting to see it before October.

If it's later then that Ill be very disappointed but I'll live....maybe.

 

[EvlNvrDys]

I'll take a shot:
From prior information we knew that Ford had ~ 200K reservations and that allocations were 30%. So the assumption was they could build ~ 70K in 2021.

If they begin order production in early May as stated previously, that equated to approximately 300 broncos built per day (up to 12/31).

For me, based on reservation #, I believe I'm somewhere around res # 16,000. So on the assumption all orders are equal, that would mean my Bronco would be built around day 53. using May 3rd as the start day that is June 25th for a build date. I believe it takes a day or so down the line but I have no idea. So if we then give it a few weeks to be loaded and shipped, l'm thinking I might see my Bronco around mid-July.

As for deadly sins, the only one I have is the 2.7L which I'm not concerned about...if they run into issues with those in first 2 months they're f*d anyway. On the flip side, who in front of me may have opted for MY22, dealer allocations, etc.. For sake of argument I'll assume these all wash together to no impact. So that's my answer, I'll be ripping a Race Red Bronco by mid-July.

For you @PowPow it's hard to say. Partly because when I look for your res # on the main order page it's 1 digit less than mine...I'm operating on the assumption first res # was 10114000, mine is 10130XXX.

YOU get the for picking my color. But it's cool we'll have (2) Race Reds in the area..... eventually.

heh. very interesting...

I would've assumed they'd make that smaller dealership wait, TBH. Respect the timestamp...

So if you're lucky enough to find a small dealership with no reservations, you get to leapfrog the rest of us that reserved within the first few days? that doesn't seem fair.

OH, and since this is a Northeast thread... it's Opening Day!! GO YANKEES!!

And YOU get for being a Yankees fan! Truth be told though, I was a Yankees fan.... BACK IN THE LATE 70's and EARLY 80's. Then I basically just lost interest in baseball.

 

[BigBronco1]

YOU get the for picking my color. But it's cool we'll have (2) Race Reds in the area..... eventually.

My 2 year old wants purple...so mine might be for sale if MY22 has purple

 

[PowPow]

YOU get the for picking my color. But it's cool we'll have (2) Race Reds in the area..... eventually.




And YOU get for being a Yankees fan! Truth be told though, I was a Yankees fan.... BACK IN THE LATE 70's and EARLY 80's. Then I basically just lost interest in baseball.

I love baseball too much. I played in college. My oldest son plays (10U) travel, loves it. and my youngest (6) is playing for his first time this year.

I'm currently rocking my Yankees sweatshirt, drinking coffee out of my Yankees coffee cup with a picture of Jeter and his 3000th hit behind me on my office wall. Not to mention my paper tickets (remember those?) framed of the game I was at when Aaron Boone hit the walk off HR to beat the Sox in game 7 ALCS in 2003.

yeah, I'm a fan.

 

[PowPow]

I'll take a shot:
From prior information we knew that Ford had ~ 200K reservations and that allocations were 30%. So the assumption was they could build ~ 70K in 2021.

If they begin order production in early May as stated previously, that equated to approximately 300 broncos built per day (up to 12/31).

For me, based on reservation #, I believe I'm somewhere around res # 16,000. So on the assumption all orders are equal, that would mean my Bronco would be built around day 53. using May 3rd as the start day that is June 25th for a build date. I believe it takes a day or so down the line but I have no idea. So if we then give it a few weeks to be loaded and shipped, l'm thinking I might see my Bronco around mid-July.

As for deadly sins, the only one I have is the 2.7L which I'm not concerned about...if they run into issues with those in first 2 months they're f*d anyway. On the flip side, who in front of me may have opted for MY22, dealer allocations, etc.. For sake of argument I'll assume these all wash together to no impact. So that's my answer, I'll be ripping a Race Red Bronco by mid-July.

For you @PowPow it's hard to say. Partly because when I look for your res # on the main order page it's 1 digit less than mine...I'm operating on the assumption first res # was 10114000, mine is 10130XXX.

unfortunately I think reservation numbers were randomly given out and have no bearing on your order in line. Definitely your timestamp is more of an indicator. When did you reserve?

 

[EvlNvrDys]

I love baseball too much. I played in college. My oldest son plays (10U) travel, loves it. and my youngest (6) is playing for his first time this year.

I'm currently rocking my Yankees sweatshirt, drinking coffee out of my Yankees coffee cup with a picture of Jeter and his 3000th hit behind me on my office wall. Not to mention my paper tickets (remember those?) framed of the game I was at when Aaron Boone hit the walk off HR to beat the Sox in game 7 ALCS in 2003.

yeah, I'm a fan.

Like who are those guys? The Yankee GREATS that I used to watch (yeah I'm not old enough for the real greats), were Munson, Nettles, Guidry, "Goose" Gossage, Jackson, Dent... and it ended around Mattingly

With my family having property in Upstate NY (near Utica), I've literally probably been to the Hall of Fame a 100+ times over the years, we used to go back before baseball became all about the money.

 

[teevan]

I love baseball too much. I played in college. My oldest son plays (10U) travel, loves it. and my youngest (6) is playing for his first time this year.

I'm currently rocking my Yankees sweatshirt, drinking coffee out of my Yankees coffee cup with a picture of Jeter and his 3000th hit behind me on my office wall. Not to mention my paper tickets (remember those?) framed of the game I was at when Aaron Boone hit the walk off HR to beat the Sox in game 7 ALCS in 2003.

yeah, I'm a fan.

I was at that ALCS game also, in the outfield where he hit it...place was insane. I must have that ticket somewhere...

 

[brocotect]

I love baseball too much. I played in college. My oldest son plays (10U) travel, loves it. and my youngest (6) is playing for his first time this year.

I'm currently rocking my Yankees sweatshirt, drinking coffee out of my Yankees coffee cup with a picture of Jeter and his 3000th hit behind me on my office wall. Not to mention my paper tickets (remember those?) framed of the game I was at when Aaron Boone hit the walk off HR to beat the Sox in game 7 ALCS in 2003.

yeah, I'm a fan.

I grew up a Reds fan.

I remember siting in a friend's house with about 12 Red Sox fans.

Aaron Boone came up to pinch hit and everyone was booing him in the room.

I (stupidly) said 'Boones cool, give him a break, I love this guy.'

I was a big fan of his when he was in Cincinnati (Paul O'neil too).

Next thing I knew a full can of beer smashed me in the head and I woke up in the front yard of my friends house the next morning .

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