Prediction: Ford US Bronco Sales Will Flatline in 2023

[Rspayde]

There is overwhelming fear of a market downturn. AKA the single biggest threat to all car makes and model sales flatlining or regressing. The combined current interest rates and inflation do not help either.

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[Dads_bronze_bronco]

Incredible to think about, but my analysis of Ford's own data indicates that they'll sell somewhere between 109 and 111K Broncos in the U.S. in 2023, compared to 117.1K units last year.

That's as much as 8K fewer units YoY, even though production has pretty much stabilized.

Although commodities remain a problem this isn't a production or availability problem. The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

Take a look at my analysis and let me know what I've missed or misconstrued. Here's the Google Sheet with the data and check out the May 2023 analysis tab to see my crude model.

There may be silver lining for some of the B6G members who have been waiting a long time: If the demand is softening and--as long as commodities are available--perhaps Ford will shift effort toward pre-ordered vehicles and away from the lot stock, Big Bend, mid, 4 dr softies that I believe they've been prioritizing.

My analysis of the May 2023 production and sales figures is over here.

And if they release a mid cycle refresh with competitive (to Jeep and Toyota) max towing capacity and rear seat A/C vents? Not to mention finally selling the Mod Top? There are a lot of 2021 four door soft top daily family drivers out there who would likely consider trade ins, especially the leases.

 

[Shazamalingo]

I have no idea where sales will go. But your sheet is missing many factors that affect car sales. First, 2022 was a bolus year - i.e., they could sell every unit they made because it was to satisfy pent up demand. 2022 also includes what would have been 2021 sales. Imagine if Ford could have actually built Broncos in 2021. You would have seen X sales in 2021, X+ in 2022, and a trend for X++ in 2023. That's because your 2022 numbers would have been lower and 2021 would be higher.

You also are missing the interest rate jump, which is the first in a decade.

So, while I have no idea where sales are going - I assume they will stabilize - I do not think your sheet has enough of the relevant data.

 

[Rayz Garage]

I don't know. With the data I've got, I could predict 2022 sales within 0.8% as of end of month of May. Applying that model to this year is how I came up with the range for 2023.

However, the model doesn't take into account anything about higher interest rates, softening economy, or higher inflation. (Or, on the positive side, perhaps really nice weather for off-roading, etc.)

I heard there was going to be a production shortage the end of this year and in 2024 which would help hold the value of the one I just purchased last month

 

[Sherminiator]

Ford will favor Bronco production over Ranger Production because its a more profitable vehicle then the Ranger....with everything else being equal.

I know someone who works at the plant and they can't even support OT without running out of parts..if OT is scheduled for the week, they get sent home early on Thursday instead of working the whole week.

They can't even add a 3rd shift because of supply issues...so a slow down or keeping the current production numbers for the Ranger and Bronco is "good" for Ford because they won't have to put incentives on them.

 

[lawber]

Incredible to think about, but my analysis of Ford's own data indicates that they'll sell somewhere between 109 and 111K Broncos in the U.S. in 2023, compared to 117.1K units last year.

That's as much as 8K fewer units YoY, even though production has pretty much stabilized.

Although commodities remain a problem this isn't a production or availability problem. The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

Take a look at my analysis and let me know what I've missed or misconstrued. Here's the Google Sheet with the data and check out the May 2023 analysis tab to see my crude model.

There may be silver lining for some of the B6G members who have been waiting a long time: If the demand is softening and--as long as commodities are available--perhaps Ford will shift effort toward pre-ordered vehicles and away from the lot stock, Big Bend, mid, 4 dr softies that I believe they've been prioritizing.

My analysis of the May 2023 production and sales figures

Incredible to think about, but my analysis of Ford's own data indicates that they'll sell somewhere between 109 and 111K Broncos in the U.S. in 2023, compared to 117.1K units last year.

That's as much as 8K fewer units YoY, even though production has pretty much stabilized.

Although commodities remain a problem this isn't a production or availability problem. The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

Take a look at my analysis and let me know what I've missed or misconstrued. Here's the Google Sheet with the data and check out the May 2023 analysis tab to see my crude model.

There may be silver lining for some of the B6G members who have been waiting a long time: If the demand is softening and--as long as commodities are available--perhaps Ford will shift effort toward pre-ordered vehicles and away from the lot stock, Big Bend, mid, 4 dr softies that I believe they've been prioritizing.

My analysis of the May 2023 production and sales figures is over here.

Thank 9% interest rates, a change you can belive in!

 

[Mr Bacon Jr]

The buyers are there but not with the huge ADM on top of the price increases Ford has made.

This- I put in an order just to not pay ADM/MAP. I've probably talked to 20 dealers (and trolled AutoTrader and 100 dealer websites), and anything on the lot that looks like what I want has a 3-15k ADM on it. If they were MSRP, I would have bought one a month ago. I agree the market for hard core versions will soften this year.

 

[js31pilot]

Y’all can read your tea leaves……….I’m goin wheeling

 

[Wardognal]

Yep. I can't see the fancy people staying away from the Audi Q8 or whatever for too long.

There is a larger market that you are not taking into account that could crossover to the Bronco. The Pickup Market , which I belong. It was my intent to purchase a new Chevy High Country or GMC PU, but instead chose the Bronco. The Jeep fails to offer the same leg and head room that this market is accustomed. Chevrolet does not offer anything that compares. The point being the Bronco market will be an amalgamation of many markets.

 

[swooshdave]

Too many falsehoods in your assumptions. Commodities constraints, ADM, interest rates and more. Unless you factor those in your model is flawed.

Until you can walk into a Ford dealer and order what you want, unconstrained, and get it in six weeks then you can’t compare it to a Jeep.

ADM is an indicator of demand. And lack of supply.

 

[markpilip]

Non-story here - Bronco is selling over 100k a year - that sounds pretty good! Doubtful it will ever approach Jeep Wrangler territory - probably settle in at between 100-125k a year for the next 5 years.

But wouldn't Ford want to sell 180-220K units, like Jeep does with Wrangler? I've got to believe they didn't get into the game to be in second place.

 

[markpilip]

Too many falsehoods in your assumptions. Commodities constraints, ADM, interest rates and more. Unless you factor those in your model is flawed.

Until you can walk into a Ford dealer and order what you want, unconstrained, and get it in six weeks then you can’t compare it to a Jeep.

ADM is an indicator of demand. And lack of supply.

Can I see your model?

 

[markpilip]

But who honestly cares about whether Ford sells 100K or 200K?

Like so many other threads on this forum, we should just be having more fun.

Agreed. I kind of don't care, but as F is a decent chunk of my portfolio, I do have a bit of skin in the game and would rather they were closer to 200K and leading the segment than the alternative.

That being said, I'm gonna have more fun in a few weeks in the sand on the OBX in my OBX!

 

[markpilip]

I have no idea where sales will go. But your sheet is missing many factors that affect car sales. First, 2022 was a bolus year - i.e., they could sell every unit they made because it was to satisfy pent up demand. 2022 also includes what would have been 2021 sales. Imagine if Ford could have actually built Broncos in 2021. You would have seen X sales in 2021, X+ in 2022, and a trend for X++ in 2023. That's because your 2022 numbers would have been lower and 2021 would be higher.

You also are missing the interest rate jump, which is the first in a decade.

So, while I have no idea where sales are going - I assume they will stabilize - I do not think your sheet has enough of the relevant data.

Yep, as I mentioned, I don't have any factors for interest rates.

That being said, could I see your model so I can incorporate some of your modeling expertise?

 

[markpilip]

There is a larger market that you are not taking into account that could crossover to the Bronco. The Pickup Market , which I belong. It was my intent to purchase a new Chevy High Country or GMC PU, but instead chose the Bronco. The Jeep fails to offer the same leg and head room that this market is accustomed. Chevrolet does not offer anything that compares. The point being the Bronco market will be an amalgamation of many markets.

Good point. I've watched some of the TFL Truck videos and they'd been saying for a while that 2023 was going to be the year of the mid-sized truck.

There's a bunch of new products in that segment that really look great. I think you're correct in that some Wrangler/Bronco shoppers might be enticed over to the mid-sized truck segment by the new product and the additional utility in the form of the bed and higher towing capacity.

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