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Coronovirus discussions

guernsej

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Data, yes. Actionable, maybe not. For example - in NC 62,139 screenings have been completed, with ~7% positive. But it does not represent a randomly selected sample...ergo no good for extrapolation.
Wrong data for the wrong purpose. Results in NC to date are predominantly PCR tests conducted on sick or concerned persons to identify active infections and guide clinical response at the individual level. I'm not aware that NC, or any state, has begun large scale antibody screening studies to determine prevalence in the population and shape future policy decisions - if that's your point, I agree completely.

In general, we have LOTS of actionable data right now guiding our current response...but you're absolutely correct that available data is currently insufficient to achieve our desired and necessary end state of returning to normal economic activity.
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guernsej

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Shit is very real for me right now and I can only hold on so long ...
That sucks man, I feel for you. Hope things start getting better soon.
 

JimmyDean

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Not trying to beat up on you specifically, but

Then declare it and a newly formed gov't program will deliver your alcohol, IF you agree to get to
rehab when it is feasible once again (otherwise, no booze). Remember it is STAY HOME!!!!!!! It is SUPER
critical you stay home, right??? (unless you need some booze, then go out pretty much any time you want)....
my alcoholism is getting a bit out of control with this shit. up to 4 bottles a week again. was down to 1-1/2 - 2. and im not even working from home, I still go into the office every day.
 

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Naw man, I agree. The cases I'm talking about are really rare. It is strange what they consider "essential business". In my town we have a huge Ruger plant and they are humming away still producing guns, along with all the gun stores. I'm certainly not arguing that liquor stores should be an exception.... I was just spitting out a pointless fact.
I'm not going to argue anymore, I'm just venting a bit on this thread. I had everything lined up for success. I owe 140k on my home I built a few years ago and it's worth around 500k. I listed it for sale mid Feb (great timing eh?). I have 10 acres to build my next home but need my current one to sell. The plan was to sell my home and build my next with no debt (and a new bronco...). I'm a contractor and have 4 permits for new homes to build sitting and my investors are telling me not to start on any of them (understandably I admit). I've recently bought some equipment for the upcoming work that was supposed to happen. Shit is very real for me right now and I can only hold on so long ...
Understood, hence why I precluded it by saying I wasn't specifically trying to beat you up.
Sorry to hear about whats sounds like a financial disaster possibly looming real soon.
The new home thing sounds like it can wait without hurting too bad, but the other investment
seems like it needs to get going soon, even if you don't have buyers yet.

At this point though, I just don't see what keeping everything shut down for many more
months is going to do. Maybe some breakthough of a cocktail of currently available drugs,
to at least keep most of the hardest hit's immune system, from attacking themselves.

but otherwise, there is going to be very little difference of opening it back of May 1, vs July 1
(except country might be destroyed enough, it takes many many years to recover).
 

guernsej

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If you are too lazy to bring even one specific thing to the table, besides "you are totally wrong", then
you really aren't worth the time to discuss it with.
I should be spending time with my family on Easter, instead I'm getting sucked into a discussion about why COVID is as serious as pretty much every acknowledges it is. FML.

Disclaimer - China is completely at fault for not containing the initial outbreak, and the information they've released is certainly skewed to shape public opinion regarding the effectiveness of their response. However, they remain the only source of information available to the world for that period and we've since refined our estimates for transmissibility and lethality based on outbreaks in nearly every first world country so it is what it is. Maybe if we had a medical epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency we'd have had better information sooner, but I digress...

In reality do any of you know where the orginal numbers came from for the total number of infections and deaths?

The WHO (world health Organization) ..a United Nations outfit. Here is how it went down in January ..(don't worry this is of no concern it is spread by animal to human) Then in February (we expect millions to die in the United States) ..wow ..so where did they get their info? From china that said not to worry it's not spreading between humans, when china knew it was and so did the WHO.
Per WHO's statement in Jan, "Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented."

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19
https://www.who.int/news-room/detai...the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

US intelligence agencies began briefing the danger of COVID based on classified intelligence sources in Jan, possibly earlier.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...cted-raw-intel-hinting-public-health-n1180646
https://thedispatch.com/p/how-the-intelligence-community-predicted
https://nationalpost.com/news/world...s-sold-stock-after-january-covid-19-briefings

Now the models that Fauci is using are based upon the WHO numbers that were crazy to begin with..so they went from projecting millions of dead in the USA which is why we closed up the country to hundreds of thousands dead (ok lots less but still country must be closed) to now 60,000 by Aug.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30182-X/fulltext

TL/DR: model accuracy improves as more data becomes available and multiple models are compared for best fit. Initial projections with high death counts were "worst case" scenarios assuming no action to mitigate spread. Current projections account for observed and predicted changes due to mitigation measures including school closures, business closures, and social distancing. Initial and refined estimates for basic reproductive number and case fatality rate have held surprisingly constant, so one does not invalidate the other.

That said, determining the infection fatality rate is critical and where data is most lacking. While it's safe to assume IFR will be significantly lower than CFR for a disease with significant asymptomatic presentation like COVID, we can't make decisions for sure until we have the data. Widespread antibody testing is critical.

Regular seasonal flu season starts in Nov and ends May 1 (7 months for counting purposes) Coronavirus started in Dec and they are saying 60,000 by August (9 months) a light flu season is 25,000 deaths, average is 45,000 and a bad flu season is 60,000 + deaths. At the rate of declining infected nationwide ..this is Coronavirus is not going to hit 40,000 by Aug..that's remarkable ..on the advice of two doctors Fauci who has been wrong a bunch of times and Dr Birx based on faulty WHO numbers convinced the President to shut down the country .

In addition, numbers of dead are showing 99% of those who died as reported all have some pre-existing conditions, wow nearly the same profile as the regular flu. And now a death rate and infection rate about the same as the regular flu.

The decline in infections and deaths probably no doubt has been affected by social distancing, but so would the regular flu and a whole host of other diseases we have that we don't Social distance for. The major drop though is not social distancing ..going from millions to a projected 60,000 deaths by Aug, its because they have revised the models they are using downwards 6 times in one month.

So ... I would just wait till the week before May 1st, and i am guessing the Fauci models will again get revised downward to around 40,000 deaths.

Germany is reopening and they are smack in the middle of the pandemic (why? Because the numbers were wrong) other countries are now talking about doing the same.
Models will continue to be revised based on observed effective reproductive number and fatality rates. The former is influenced by our behavior - remove measures that prevent transmission, predicted deaths go back up. Studies are in progress to give us a better sight picture on the latter.

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preli...infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Unfortunately, even at 0.4% IFR COVID remains significantly more dangerous than the flu because 1) it's deadlier 2) it's as or more contagious and 3) there's no vaccination or herd immunity to prevent widespread infection. If we remove too many mitigation measures too early, transmission will resume previous trajectory and hundreds of thousands of Americans will die including thousands of young, otherwise healthy adults with no pre-existing conditions.
 
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Carolina Jim

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With Wuhan opened back up, we'll have some preview of life back to 'normal'. I'd guess we have a few satellites focused on that area. I have a friend with a relative living in that area & got to see some real time text-feedback. China is a different world entirely...total control of individual mobility...zero privacy constraints. When they say 'stay home' that mandate is vigorously enforced. Back when they were doing a lot of testing, if you tested pos, your entire residence building got a government text identifying you as a carrier.

I haven't been to our 'local' Walmart in 6 weeks but a friend was there yesterday. They've put one-way arrows on the floor to encourage distancing. But my friend reports arrows were totally ignored, and only 1 in 10 wore a face covering. I think a lot of the future will depend on personal behavior. Folks infected Jan/Feb can plead ignorance...but that's no longer the case.
 

Carolina Jim

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For the life of me I can't figure out why so many people can't grasp this concept.
I'm a news junkie, so I know the stress being felt in the 'hot spots'. But everyplace is different...below is today's info for the state of NC:

By Reporting Hospitals
InpatientHospitalBed.jpg


Empty beds reflects beds which are able to be staffed but do not currently have patients. These numbers reflect the current percent of hospitals reporting. These numbers do not reflect hospital surge.

Ventilators.jpg


Number of patients on a ventilator (not specific to COVID-19), as self-reported by hospitals. Ventilators in hospitals as self-reported by hospitals. This number does not reflect ventilators from other sources, including those purchased but not yet deployed to hospitals.

These data reflect 69% of hospitals reporting statewide.
 

guernsej

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For the life of me I can't figure out why so many people can't grasp this concept.
Some are conditioned not to believe it, for others maybe it's too abstract, but I suspect for most it's just a pretense - COVID isn't hurting them right now and economic instability is. They want the immediate pain to go away even if the alternative might be worse.

Also, as @Carolina Jim points out, most places are doing fine because we collectively took action to prepare for the worst, so it's easy for some to assume the worst was never really a possibility at all.
 
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MaverickMan

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Until US cases get below 100 or so active cases a total return to normal would just put us in the same situation we are now in a matter of weeks. Sure people die from all kinds of things every day. But in the last 42 days we have an average of 524 Americans dead every single day. Imagine if a cult or terrorist organization or a rogue militia was going around town to town snatching up people at random and locking them in a box with enough air for 7 days and then burying them. That is what we are up against, if that was the case we would be under nationwide martial law and people would be in camps. I think dealing with some uncertainty and worrying about advancing our livelyhood is worth it to stop the dying. We will mitigate the side affects as much and as quickly as we can. I support most of my household and have $430 in the bank and $50 in my wallet. But we have a couple week of food and stimulus and unemployment is coming. We just have to get the cases down, thats all we can do.
 

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I'm a news junkie, so I know the stress being felt in the 'hot spots'. But everyplace is different...below is today's info for the state of NC:

By Reporting Hospitals
Ford Bronco Coronovirus discussions Ventilators


Empty beds reflects beds which are able to be staffed but do not currently have patients. These numbers reflect the current percent of hospitals reporting. These numbers do not reflect hospital surge.


Number of patients on a ventilator (not specific to COVID-19), as self-reported by hospitals. Ventilators in hospitals as self-reported by hospitals. This number does not reflect ventilators from other sources, including those purchased but not yet deployed to hospitals.

These data reflect 69% of hospitals reporting statewide.
We are lucky we started shutting down early relative to when our first cases started arriving.

I sure would like antibody and virus testing to be broadly prevalent before a relaxation of rules. There are still a lot of idiots out there whose don’t get spacing or using masks etc.
 

indio22

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I was looking at this study out of a region in Germany. It indicates a COVID-19 lethality rate of 0.36%. Quite a bit less than some of the earlier estimates. For reference, I think the common flu has an average lethality rate of 0.10%. A reason for the reduced lethality could be a more accurate count of those who have been infected with the virus. See link to the study below for reference, and in case anyone has a different conclusion.

Bronco content? Well, if this German study result is born out in other populations, and we can make social policy align with the realities of the virus situation (a big if), maybe we get things rolling again earlier rather than later in terms of Bronco reveal/production/delivery.

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf
 

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I was looking at this study out of a region in Germany. It indicates a COVID-19 lethality rate of 0.36%. Quite a bit less than some of the earlier estimates. For reference, I think the common flu has an average lethality rate of 0.10%. A reason for the reduced lethality could be a more accurate count of those who have been infected with the virus. See link to the study below for reference, and in case anyone has a different conclusion.

Bronco content? Well, if this German study result is born out in other populations, and we can make social policy align with the realities of the virus situation (a big if), maybe we get things rolling again earlier rather than later in terms of Bronco reveal/production/delivery.

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf
Germany is at 2.36% lethality as of today. It will likely get worse due to the lag in the death rate.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 

indio22

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Germany is at 2.36% lethality as of today. It will likely get worse due to the lag in the death rate.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
On that site you mentioned, I don't know how accurate the 2.36% is though. As mentioned in my earlier post, a key to the more localized Germany study, was including persons infected who were asymptomatic or having few symptoms. If those persons are not including, which is the case in some other analysis, then we can see higher (possibly erroneous) figures.
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