How can Dealer Allocations vs. Reservation Affect Timetable

[Bronco23]

Does anybody have an idea how the dealer allocations vs. reservations can affect the timing on getting your Bronco built?

Say a dealership has 50 Allocations and 300 reservations. After the initial allocation number is built and sent to the Dealership, how do they determine the speed or, quantity or frequency of filling the additional reservations?

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[Trueblue2296]

If there is 50 allocations for MY21 then all they will receive is 50 allocations. For the remaining orders they will get filled each quarter of the next MY just like they are being filled now.

 

[da_jokker]

Timestamp only applies to your place in line at that dealer. Dealer Allocation is just how many folks the bouncer lets into the club in the first batch.

However @Trueblue2296 response got me thinking (which isn't good)

Say we take that 50, in your order is supposed to be in the first batch but got passed over because of constraints so Ford decided to grab some BB from the back of the line.

Does that line skipper count as part of the 50 and now you are out, even though you've been camping out to be one of the first?

In other words, Does Ford give that dealer 50 and cut them off, but instead of going by time stamp order, they're just going by "constraints" order?

 

[ZackDanger]

Timestamp only applies to your place in line at that dealer. Dealer Allocation is just how many folks the bouncer lets into the club in the first batch.

However @Trueblue2296 response got me thinking (which isn't good)

Say we take that 50, in your order is supposed to be in the first batch but got passed over because of constraints so Ford decided to grab some BB from the back of the line.

Does that line skipper count as part of the 50 and now you are out, even though you've been camping out to be one of the first?

In other words, Does Ford give that dealer 50 and cut them off, but instead of going by time stamp order, they're just going by "constraints" order?

That BB from the back counts towards the 50, but it's not like you immediately lose your chance at a MY21...

So, let's say a dealership's MY21 allocation is 50.

They will receive 50 Broncos spread out over the 6mo of MY21 production.

That is because there is a finite amount of Broncos Ford can produce. They can't give the dealership 50+1 broncos in MY21 because there physically aren't going to be that many broncos. (They came up with the allocation numbers by basically dividing the number of total MY21 production by the number of dealers... plus some funny math.) If "your" Bronco goes to someone else, there isn't another extra Bronco magically produced for you.

(Now it's not like you have just that one slot... they just go to the top of the list of ordered broncos and if they can't build it they move to the next until they hit their number for that scheduling block... at the next scheduling block they start back at the top of the list of unbuilt broncos. If you're #1 in line, and they can't build yours, and they schedule the first 10, you just become #11 in the total line now, or basically back to #1 for the next scheduling block... it's not like you become #51... does that make sense?)

Once we hit MY22, we don't know what allocation will be, but obviously Ford is going to do everything it can to fill every order left over.

Assuming production rate increases we should expect that each dealer will get more broncos every month in MY22 than they are now... Based on the back-of-the-napkin math we have, they should be on target to fulfill all outstanding orders by Q3 2022. (it seems that Ford is well capable of that... Webasto and part suppliers... that's another issue)

Bronco MY21 allocation isn't about punishing or rewarding dealers... so there isn't any extra capacity... it's about figuring out where all of the broncos they can build are going... this is also why you're ranked against others at your dealership and not nationally... so some dealerships don't get all the broncos, or none of the broncos, punishing some poor local.

Also remember, monthly allocation is total bronco production divided by dealers... if yours get's bumped, it's not like you're punted 12 months down the line... you're just delayed until they have all your parts. It's a steady stream of Broncos with a MY change thrown in somewhere.

 

[shimmy825]

I'm assuming that the larger dealers (say Galpin, in Soutern California) due to their size and volume would get a larger allocation than smaller ones yeah?

 

[ZackDanger]

I'm assuming that the larger dealers (say Galpin, in Soutern California) due to their size and volume would get a larger allocation than smaller ones yeah?

The biggest factor in determining allocation numbers is total orders… so because allocation will scale with order numbers, larger dealers will likely have more allocation.

Though, with more allocation and orders, the time stamp representation will more closely represent national averages… so even though time stamp is ranked against the dealer, the larger the allocation the less likely you are to game the system… basically a person’s time stamp ranking against national numbers will be the same regardless of what dealership you are at, especially ones with more orders.

Basically what that means, is that by being at a dealership with more allocations it’s because they have more orders… but the same relative percentage of people will receive a MY21 allocation… and your position isn’t going to change.

Dealer A: 100 orders. 30 allocation. Your rank #40

Dealer B: 1000 orders. 300 allocation. Your rank #400

Even though dealer B has 10x the allocation, it’s because they have 10x the orders and as such, your 10x later in line.

(the other factor in determining allocation numbers is that dealerships are rewarded with additional units for past suv sales and in markets with a high percentage Jeep and 4Runner registrations)

 

[Raptor911]

the simple answer is YES. Bigger dealerships get more allocation on every model. Do you think it is a coincidence that bigger dealerships tend to have 10 Raptors parked out front and 5 GT 350r and the smaller ones have 0 parked out front?

the more you sell the more you get.

OP ... don't worry .. once commodities catch up Ford will be giving out allocations like hot cakes. I bet by July of 2022, all reservations will be fulfilled.

I'm assuming that the larger dealers (say Galpin, in Soutern California) due to their size and volume would get a larger allocation than smaller ones yeah?

 

[da_jokker]

...

Yeah thats what I figured. So basically in this scenario, if you get skipped 50 times then you're out

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