What does % constraints mean?

[2022BD]

Greetings all., first post here and beer30
With order banks opening next week, bet it’s briefly, can someone shed some light on this? The options not available is obvious, but what’s the percentage’s of constraints? Most likely to get scheduled?, or not scheduled?

Cheers, and safe drives.
o—o

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[Deb68nc]

Watch this video…welcome and good luck

 

[RagnarKon]

The percentages is the estimated build capacity.

So, say that Ford can manufacture 1000 Broncos a month, just to make the math easy. If the commodity constraint is listed as 36% for the hard top, that means (roughly) a maximum of 360 Bronco that month can be manufactured with the hard top.

For the past several months, around 85% of the orders holders have had a hard top on their order. If we say that there are 7000 orders left, that effectively means 5,570 of all of the remaining orders are automatically ineligible for scheduling that month because they have a hard top on their order. Or, said another way, only 20.42% of orders are actually eligible for scheduling, the rest have no chance.

If Ford continues to produce 1000 Broncos a month, you chances will slowly improve...

• April - 20.42%
• May - 21.33%
• June - 22.6%
• July - 24.5%
• August - 26.67%
• September - 34%
• October - 53%

... BUT... even during the last month of 2023MY production, only 53% of all remaining orders are eligible for scheduling. This is true even though there are 7 months of production remaining, 7000 orders left, and Ford can produce 1000 Broncos a month.

So if you add the constrained items, you are rolling the dice. If you order a 2-door Bronco and only 6% of the order mix (or the orders in the order banks) have 2-door Bronco on order, you are probably fine. But if 15% of the orders have 2-door on order... that means someone ain't getting a 2023MY Bronco.

So it really is in your best interest to avoid anything on that list. If you need to have one of those options, you can obviously still try to submit an order, but just hope for the best, and prepare yourself for disappointment.

 

[JBrew]

I wonder how long 2 door models have been constrained so low. That might explain the guy in the Arby's drive-thru window last year:

"Hey, nice Bron... Wait! Is that a 2 door?!?!? They come in 2 doors?! Nice!"

 

[FleshTuxedo]

Soooo I should sell my 2dr for $$$$$$$$$?

 

[2022BD]

Thanks for the reply. Should have stated not looking to order. I converted to 2023MY from 22, first day to convert in September. 2/Dr BD no constraints. I’d think I’d be good?
Cheers.

 

[5PC24]

Going to be really fun to see people with new orders having those constraints get scheduled when others have been waiting years and don't get scheduled. Wonder how many new orders of WT + Lux + MIC will hit the lottery.

 

[Beach_Bum]

I wonder how long 2 door models have been constrained so low. That might explain the guy in the Arby's drive-thru window last year:

"Hey, nice Bron... Wait! Is that a 2 door?!?!? They come in 2 doors?! Nice!"

The 10% constraint on 2-dr models is likely a reflection of all the orders that were recently scheduled this past winter. With the mass scheduling that took place, it likely accounted for most of the capacity for the 2-dr for the immediate future.

 

[WT205]

Going to be really fun to see people with new orders having those constraints get scheduled when others have been waiting years and don't get scheduled. Wonder how many new orders of WT + Lux + MIC will hit the lottery.

If it happens- look at allocation as the rationale. Dealers were given a forecast a few months ago of what they will receive for the balance of 2023 so they know which outstanding orders are likely to be built. Of course- Ford could still screw that up.

 

[HBTFD]

Ford guessed 20% 2 door orders and set up production with that ratio. Since all 2 doors are hardtops the ~33% 2 door orders multiplied with the Webasto disaster caused (and currently causing) 2 door Broncos to be heavily constrained.

 

[2022BD]

But, the hardtop on 2/Dr has never been a constraint. If it is all of the sudden, build them with the soft now offered.

 

[Neigh]

But, the hardtop on 2/Dr has never been a constraint.

By that logic, "Bronco" would be a constraint.

Ford only details constraints for things that are options and if you want a 2 door you have no choice but to get the hard top, therefore Ford doesn't list the hard top as a constraint on the 2 door.

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