What's next?

[JimmyDean]

I agree with this, I think Tesla's long term goal needs to be to supply the batteries to the big guys. And Tesla cars will become something of a cult icon, ala delorian.

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[Rogues Gambit]

This EV craze is a kiss of death imo in the long run

 

[Nickp]

I don’t see GM, BMW, Mercedes, Honda, Nissan, or Mazda being able to compete in the electric game anytime soon. Ford, FCA, Toyota, and VAG should do alright. I think we are going to see a lot of consolidation, my guess is that Ford and GM will merge in the next couple of years.

Tesla was originally created for exactly what y’all are saying; their goal has clearly changed from being just a battery company who makes cars to a full on powerhouse in the EV market. And I do not see that changing anytime soon.

 

[Tslater1989]

If anything Tesla would buy one of the Big 4. The assets they now have are absolutely absurd, and if they keep moving timelines up and bring the Cybertruck to market they are going to absolutely fucking print money. Just figuring out if a stainless steel vehicle is as cheap and viable as they claim could put them so far ahead of the automakers it’s absurd.

Tesla doesn't have value in the traditional sense. They are like apple, its the name. The cars themselves are not that great. Quality issues galore, panel fitment, electronic demons etc. Profit margin for Tesla's is non-existent. The subsidy was they key to them making money. With that gone, its not looking good. In 2018, Tesla's revenue was 21.4 billion, ford 160.3 billion, VW 235.8 Billion. Obviously market share is a huge factor here. what I'm getting at, Tesla, is barely profitable right now. they are operating on narrow margins. Once the sales figures start dropping, they are going to have to try and get incentives and/or lower prices. this will make that margin even smaller. I know a few people who reserved the Cybertruck just to post a picture on Instagram, no intentions of buying one. So the hype may not even be there. I'm glad somebody came into the industry and is rattling the big car manufactures a bit. Competition is good for consumers. But I dont know if Tesla is going to be in the running for more than 2-3 years from now. A lot is riding on subsidies, incentives, price of oil/fuel, infrastructure, and of course battery technology.

 

[Nickp]

Tesla doesn't have value in the traditional sense. They are like apple, its the name.

I almost stopped reading here. If you think Apple is only valuable “because of the name” then lol. Just lol.

The cars themselves are not that great. Quality issues galore, panel fitment, electronic demons etc. Profit margin for Tesla's is non-existent. The subsidy was they key to them making money. With that gone, its not looking good. In 2018, Tesla's revenue was 21.4 billion, ford 160.3 billion, VW 235.8 Billion. Obviously market share is a huge factor here. what I'm getting at, Tesla, is barely profitable right now. they are operating on narrow margins.

Sure they’ve got problems. But as the Explorer has proved for Ford, issues with panel gaps and small things will not stop people from buying certain vehicles. And Tesla’s build quality has gotten insanely better and is only improving.

Once the sales figures start dropping, they are going to have to try and get incentives and/or lower prices. this will make that margin even smaller. I know a few people who reserved the Cybertruck just to post a picture on Instagram, no intentions of buying one. So the hype may not even be there. I'm glad somebody came into the industry and is rattling the big car manufactures a bit. Competition is good for consumers. But I dont know if Tesla is going to be in the running for more than 2-3 years from now. A lot is riding on subsidies, incentives, price of oil/fuel, infrastructure, and of course battery technology.

Yup once their sales start dropping. When is that going to happen again? Last I checked they have the model Y starting production in a month and they are going to sell the shit out of it.

 

[Tslater1989]

I almost stopped reading here. If you think Apple is only valuable “because of the name” then lol. Just lol.


Sure they’ve got problems. But as the Explorer has proved for Ford, issues with panel gaps and small things will not stop people from buying certain vehicles. And Tesla’s build quality has gotten insanely better and is only improving.


Yup once their sales start dropping. When is that going to happen again? Last I checked they have the model Y starting production in a month and they are going to sell the shit out of it.

Lol, calm down, I'm not trying to argue with you on this, simply a debate. What I mean by the apple reference, is the name take them further than the product. Steve jobs did a hell of a job building that companies reputation. They build nice, high-end products, but they also have very annoying nuances, and quality issues. Its very similar to snap-on tools for me. There is a name, a name that is respected, but the product leaves something to be desired. The point is, the name is carrying them further than the product itself. I like Tesla, for me its just not viable, YET. I'm not anti-EV either.

The explorer is a great argument, sales are picking back up after the initial fiasco. The point I was making, most reviews of teslas are overwhelmingly positve and praising it, when you can see the defect in the review. The explorer has been dogged by quite a few. Rightfully so I should ad.

The model 3 will sell, quite well, it very well could be the saving grace for them. A high volume seller that carries the burden of the flagship vehicles. The point I'm making, is without the subsidy, things are not looking as good. Like I said, " A lot is riding on subsidies, incentives, price of oil/fuel, infrastructure, and of course battery technology." They very well could become king of the mountain, market analytics is basically educated guessing with a big asterisk, like the local forecast.

 

[Carolina Jim]

I think Tesla's long term goal needs to be to supply the batteries to the big guys. And Tesla cars will become something of a cult icon, ala delorian.

Tesla was originally created for exactly what y’all are saying; their goal has clearly changed from being just a battery company who makes cars to a full on powerhouse in the EV market.

Tesla doesn't have value in the traditional sense. They are like apple

Musk's job for shareholders is to create value, which is defined as Share Price X #Shares. The most telling part of the article I quoted earlier is this:
"Cramer said Tesla is a technology company, “and you got to value it like a technology company now.” Tech companies generally trade at much high price-earnings ratios than car companies. Tesla trades at a multiple of more than 80 times, while GM and Ford trade at multiples in the high single digits."

We've argued about tech on this forum quite a bit. Personally, I'd be happy with a Bronco that has just a push-button AM radio. But the reality of Musk's brilliance is he has made wheels, axles, and swing gates invisible; it's all wrapped up in a binary camo.

 

[SpursFan]

Tesla isn't going anywhere but up(not talking stock) most of the negative comments sound like what you hear from someone who's had no contact with Tesla nor seen the changes over the last decade. the quality alone has sky rocketed and the service depending on what the issue is can be impeccable. the company certainly has room to I prove but when you're growing at a rate unseen in the industry for decades thats to be expected.

wanna talk quality issues I'd be glad to sit down and go through my 350s, F150, Expedition and Edges issues some that should never had left the plant..

 

[Nickp]

Tesla isn't going anywhere but up(not talking stock) most of the negative comments sound like what you hear from someone who's had no contact with Tesla nor seen the changes over the last decade. the quality alone has sky rocketed and the service depending on what the issue is can be impeccable. the company certainly has room to I prove but when you're growing at a rate unseen in the industry for decades thats to be expected.

wanna talk quality issues I'd be glad to sit down and go through my 350s, F150, Expedition and Edges issues some that should never had left the plant..

Ford has its issues but they are still definitely above par.

Tesla is going to be a dominant force and everyone in this forum who doesn’t see that just confirms that the “Big 3” are woefully unprepared. My bet is that Tesla will start outselling VAG in the U.S. within 5 years. It will probably outsell *at least one of the big 3 within 10 years. (I see GM falling from 1st to 3rd behind FCA in the next few years personally, but that remains to be seen.)

 

[SpursFan]

Ford has its issues but they are still definitely above par.

Tesla is going to be a dominant force and everyone in this forum who doesn’t see that just confirms that the “Big 3” are woefully unprepared. My bet is that Tesla will start outselling VAG in the U.S. within 5 years. It will probably outsell *at least one of the big 3 within 10 years. (I see GM falling from 1st to 3rd behind FCA in the next few years personally, but that remains to be seen.)

I love my Fords but I've seen more quality issues on 60k plus Fords than 40k Tesla's. That's one reason I passed my golden ticket 500 off till next year. The quality on the 350 was much better in year two but still not without issues.

I don't expect Tesla to outsell any of the big three(in the states) for many many years if ever. I do expect on a global stage for that opportunity to present itself. with three plants in process and 2 more coming soon their output capability is about to explode.

 

[EvlNvrDys]

TESLA SUCKS....

Next topic please

Sorry, still a bit disgruntled that we didn't get another leak this past monday. Going through a few withdrawal symptoms.
Though I will say, as Tesla was referenced with Apple I do see the connection. Both sell based on name recognition. Apple does make quality products, but you will find quite a few people purchase well above their paygrade just to have an Apple. (to set the record straight, I go Android, cuz Apple sucks!) And my step kid has the same approach. He is dying to have a Tesla, sure can't afford it, but doesn't stop him from trying... because ... it's a Tesla.... and like I said before.... Tesla sucks!!

Now back to our regular programming.... Can I please get a center console in my new Bronco?? Thanks

 

[TeocaliMG]

People have been claiming Tesla’s demise is nigh for 10+ years. I don’t buy it anymore, and I don’t think ford corporate is taking them lightly either. I think they are terrified hence the MachE.

Tesla for some reason is often painted black and white, I don't get it. They clearly have enough of a brand that they are not going anywhere any time soon. OEM's know this, at least now. Conversely they are also not worth Ford+GM+FCA+Hyundai+Nissan+whatever else... its valuation is absurd. Nothing behind it, not name, not assets, not revenue. So yea, is Tesla going to die? no, but are many millennial portfolios going to be on life support soon? You betcha

Edit: before it comes up, Tesla is not uber special in the arena of Big Data or AV or anything tech. Do they have a lead on the classic OEM's yes, but not by an order of magnitude which impossible to close. And with regard to more traditional tech/data, they have nothing on the real silly valley kings.

And regarding stainless steel, Tesla's advantage here is that Space X is planning to use tons of it in the future, and Musk can combine these economies of scale. As long as people are ok with sub PS1 level mesh quality in their body design it will work great!

 

[Carolina Jim]

its valuation is absurd. Nothing behind it, not name, not assets, not revenue.

No one has a crystal ball to see where battery technology will wind up. If you were around to experience the computer evolution of the 1990s you understand processing capability has exploded. There's no certainty battery evolution will follow that trajectory...and eliminate the 'range anxiety' now constraining EV growth. If it does - or if Musk can make some Dilithium Crystals instead - Tesla is likely to own the vehicle market for a time. Everything eventually becomes commoditized, but it could be one helluv'a a run.

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