2022 Deliveries? I'm not so sure...

[jayhawkco]

Obviously there have been some frustrations aired on these forums about B&P date, lack of 2.7 manual, lack of white top, etc. But, I figured I'd try to inject some positivity. I was trying to do some calculations to figure out when I should expect my Bronco with a 10/1 order date, and there has been a ton of talk about delaying a lot of the later reservations until 2022. But, I made a little chart to help myself visualize exactly why people might be thinking that.

Right now, if what we've heard from some dealers is to be believed, Ford has ~185,000 reservations and hopes to have a 75% conversion rate. I personally think that's high, but for the sake of this discussion, it doesn't matter. It results in ~140,000 trucks to be made. The Michigan Assembly Plant can produce 5,300 vehicles per week (the number I pulled from Wikipedia) and I tend to think Broncos will be somewhere in the 60-65% range (the remaining production going to Rangers) of total production. At 60%, that would be 3,180 Broncos per week. It will take 44 weeks to produce 140,000 Broncos, which, if we say production starts on 3/15/21, puts us basically right on New Years.

This obviously doesn't take into account commodity issues and whatnot, but this chart below lets you put your own assumptions for how many orders actually get placed as well as the % of production capacity that the plant will put towards Broncos. Obviously if you think the whole plant will only run at 80% efficiency and Broncos will be 50% of production, you'd look at the line for 40% (80% x 50%). The numbers in the body of the chart are how many days after production begins that all reservations be complete. Anything highlighted in red means that production would be complete within 291 days, or the time between 3/15/21 and the new calendar year.

Again, a little attempted positivity for these forums. Now we just need March '21 to stick.

Chris

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[Squatch]

How dare you bring positivity here!

 

[Tre]

Again, a little attempted positivity for these forums. Now we just need March '21 to stick.

Chris

I sure hope you're right!

 

[jonwithanelcamino]

Obviously there have been some frustrations aired on these forums about B&P date, lack of 2.7 manual, lack of white top, etc. But, I figured I'd try to inject some positivity. I was trying to do some calculations to figure out when I should expect my Bronco with a 10/1 order date, and there has been a ton of talk about delaying a lot of the later reservations until 2022. But, I made a little chart to help myself visualize exactly why people might be thinking that.

Right now, if what we've heard from some dealers is to be believed, Ford has ~185,000 reservations and hopes to have a 75% conversion rate. I personally think that's high, but for the sake of this discussion, it doesn't matter. It results in ~140,000 trucks to be made. The Michigan Assembly Plant can produce 5,300 vehicles per week (the number I pulled from Wikipedia) and I tend to think Broncos will be somewhere in the 60-65% range (the remaining production going to Rangers). At 60%, that would be 3,180 Broncos per week. It will take 44 weeks to produce 140,000 Broncos, which, if we say production starts on 3/15/21, puts us basically right on New Years.

This obviously doesn't take into account commodity issues and whatnot, but this chart below lets you put your own assumptions for how many orders actually get placed as well as the % of production capacity that the plant will put towards Broncos. Obviously if you think the whole plant will only run at 80% efficiency and Broncos will be 50% of production, you'd look at the line for 40% (80% x 50%). The numbers in the body of the chart are how many days after production begins will all reservations be complete. Anything highlighted in red means that production would be complete within 291 days, or the time between 3/15/21 and the new calendar year.

Again, a little attempted positivity for these forums. Now we just need March '21 to stick.

Chris

I concur. Everyone has an opinion and none of them are right....until they are...or aren't. We'll know come February. But I like you, don't think it will be as dire as folks make it out to be.

 

[Ksm]

Obviously there have been some frustrations aired on these forums about B&P date, lack of 2.7 manual, lack of white top, etc. But, I figured I'd try to inject some positivity. I was trying to do some calculations to figure out when I should expect my Bronco with a 10/1 order date, and there has been a ton of talk about delaying a lot of the later reservations until 2022. But, I made a little chart to help myself visualize exactly why people might be thinking that.

Right now, if what we've heard from some dealers is to be believed, Ford has ~185,000 reservations and hopes to have a 75% conversion rate. I personally think that's high, but for the sake of this discussion, it doesn't matter. It results in ~140,000 trucks to be made. The Michigan Assembly Plant can produce 5,300 vehicles per week (the number I pulled from Wikipedia) and I tend to think Broncos will be somewhere in the 60-65% range (the remaining production going to Rangers). At 60%, that would be 3,180 Broncos per week. It will take 44 weeks to produce 140,000 Broncos, which, if we say production starts on 3/15/21, puts us basically right on New Years.

This obviously doesn't take into account commodity issues and whatnot, but this chart below lets you put your own assumptions for how many orders actually get placed as well as the % of production capacity that the plant will put towards Broncos. Obviously if you think the whole plant will only run at 80% efficiency and Broncos will be 50% of production, you'd look at the line for 40% (80% x 50%). The numbers in the body of the chart are how many days after production begins will all reservations be complete. Anything highlighted in red means that production would be complete within 291 days, or the time between 3/15/21 and the new calendar year.

Again, a little attempted positivity for these forums. Now we just need March '21 to stick.

Chris

how do I read this chart? Also I just want to caution about the number of weeks: having worked at FCA there's usually a shut down in the summer and/or around xmas for tooling, maintenance, etc. so that could factor in there as well.

 

[sootie007]

Im thinking closer to 50% will actually follow through ...its really easy to plink down $100 on a dream .......its another thing to align financing, sign on the dotted line and not get cold feet during the wait . IMO.

 

[jayhawkco]

how do I read this chart? Also I just want to caution about the number of weeks: having worked at FCA there's usually a shut down in the summer and/or around xmas for tooling, maintenance, etc. so that could factor in there as well.

Take however many Broncos you assume are converted to orders and use that column. Take whatever % of capacity you think will be dedicated to Broncos and use that row. Where the two meet, that's how many days to complete production.

Chris

 

[RLW]

I agree with most that Ford's prediction of a 75% conversion rate of $100 refundable reservations to actual bronco seems crazy high. So high maybe they were high when they predicted it.

I wonder how they got 75% conversion rate?
Any science behind that?
or Just a hopeful guess by Ford?

 

[coolrain]

 

[Ksm]

Take however many Broncos you assume are converted to orders and use that column. Take whatever % of capacity you think will be dedicated to Broncos and use that row. Where the two meet, that's how many days to complete production.

Chris

Ah so the number in each cell is the number of days in production. Got it. Very picky but is there any way you can post a pic to this reply where it's shown in weeks (So prob divide by 7 and throw in the round function for good measure) and change your formatting on the number of orders to comma style? Thanks for building this!

 

[jayhawkco]

Ah so the number in each cell is the number of days in production. Got it. Very picky but is there any way you can post a pic to this reply where it's shown in weeks (So prob divide by 7 and throw in the round function for good measure) and change your formatting on the number of orders to comma style? Thanks for building this!

Ask and ye shall receive.

Chris

 

[Studawg]

Here is the scenario that I cant square.

Customer A reserves Bronco X at small dealer in Mississippi in July.

Customer B reserves identically optioned Bronco X at big dealer in Atlanta in October.

Then, both customers ORDER their Bronco on same day in December (or whenever that process goes live.)

So Ford is going to build and send the Bronco to the customer that ordered from the big dealer, just because that dealer has more reservations and/or has sold more Explorers or something in the past?

Why does Ford care which dealers the orders are coming from? They are both ordered. Makes sense to build the one that was reserved first considering they were both ordered at the same time. Right?

Now if the customer that reserved his Bronco in October actually ORDERS his Bronco before the guy that reserved his in July, I can understand them building/delivering that Bronco first.

It would seem to me that the actual "allocation" of Broncos wont happen until all the 2021 model year Broncos have been reserved, ordered, built to spec and shipped out. (ALL 2021 model year Broncos will have been reserved and ordered by retail customers, not speced out by dealers.) Dealers would be allocated 2022 Broncos based on what they did with the 2021 models.

Everything until then is just building whats been reserved and ordered in a logical sequence, with trim level and options being the only other factor affecting when it gets built.

I dont know, just sayin

 

[jayhawkco]

Here is the scenario that I cant square.

Customer A reserves Bronco X at small dealer in Mississippi in July.

Customer B reserves identically optioned Bronco X at big dealer in Atlanta in October.

Both customers ORDER their Bronco on same day in December (or whenever that process goes live.)

So Ford is going to build and send the Bronco to the customer that ordered from the big dealer, just because that dealer has more reservations and/or has sold more Explorers or something in the past?

Why does Ford care which dealers the orders are coming from? They are both ordered. Makes sense to build the one that was reserved first considering they were both ordered at the same time. Right?

Now if the customer that reserved his Bronco in October actually ORDERS his Bronco before the guy that reserved his in July, I can understand them building/delivering that Bronco first.

It would seem to me that the actual "allocation" of Broncos wont happen until all the 2021 model year Broncos have been reserved, ordered, built to spec and shipped out. (ALL 2021 model year Broncos will have been reserved and ordered by retail customers, not speced out by dealers.) Dealers would be allocated 2022 Broncos based on what they did with the 2021 models.

Everything until then is just building whats been reserved and ordered in a logical sequence, with trim level and options being the only other factor affecting when it gets built.

I dont know, just sayin

My take is that Ford doesn't care that much. Tie goes to the big guys. If they're processing x amount of Badlands with y amount of reservations between 7/13-7/15, that first shipment, more will go to the big guys than the little guys. But then the little guys are next. I don't think it appreciably will back anything up "out of order" more than a couple of weeks.

Chris

 

[Sean47]

Just have patience. We all who order will get their Bronco. Don't drive yourself crazy with predictions and over analyzing.

 

[Lab00Rat]

Here is the scenario that I cant square.

Customer A reserves Bronco X at small dealer in Mississippi in July.

Customer B reserves identically optioned Bronco X at big dealer in Atlanta in October.

Then, both customers ORDER their Bronco on same day in December (or whenever that process goes live.)

So Ford is going to build and send the Bronco to the customer that ordered from the big dealer, just because that dealer has more reservations and/or has sold more Explorers or something in the past?

Why does Ford care which dealers the orders are coming from? They are both ordered. Makes sense to build the one that was reserved first considering they were both ordered at the same time. Right?

Now if the customer that reserved his Bronco in October actually ORDERS his Bronco before the guy that reserved his in July, I can understand them building/delivering that Bronco first.

It would seem to me that the actual "allocation" of Broncos wont happen until all the 2021 model year Broncos have been reserved, ordered, built to spec and shipped out. (ALL 2021 model year Broncos will have been reserved and ordered by retail customers, not speced out by dealers.) Dealers would be allocated 2022 Broncos based on what they did with the 2021 models.

Everything until then is just building whats been reserved and ordered in a logical sequence, with trim level and options being the only other factor affecting when it gets built.

I dont know, just sayin

Only because there is a truck full of other cars headed to the big dealer more often than the little guy. Nothing personal to the little guy, just logistics.


Signed,
Customer A

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