When did they change from emissions certification driving the model year? Is it like a grandfather clause? It is been more than a few decades since I looked into it, probably a lot more rules/regs/loopholes these days.
As long as the specs don't change, they're good.
I agree with this so much! Based purely on gut feeling haha!
Appreciate the work and attitude. I'd imagine Ford has more like 170k reservations and will convert maybe 50% into sales the first year. They have barely capped out Mach-E reservations and they were only taking 50,000 of them. Ford likes to 'brag', there is a reason you can't find real Mach-E conversion numbers yet IMHO.Obviously there have been some frustrations aired on these forums about B&P date, lack of 2.7 manual, lack of white top, etc. But, I figured I'd try to inject some positivity. I was trying to do some calculations to figure out when I should expect my Bronco with a 10/1 order date, and there has been a ton of talk about delaying a lot of the later reservations until 2022. But, I made a little chart to help myself visualize exactly why people might be thinking that.
Right now, if what we've heard from some dealers is to be believed, Ford has ~185,000 reservations and hopes to have a 75% conversion rate. I personally think that's high, but for the sake of this discussion, it doesn't matter. It results in ~140,000 trucks to be made. The Michigan Assembly Plant can produce 5,300 vehicles per week (the number I pulled from Wikipedia) and I tend to think Broncos will be somewhere in the 60-65% range (the remaining production going to Rangers) of total production. At 60%, that would be 3,180 Broncos per week. It will take 44 weeks to produce 140,000 Broncos, which, if we say production starts on 3/15/21, puts us basically right on New Years.
This obviously doesn't take into account commodity issues and whatnot, but this chart below lets you put your own assumptions for how many orders actually get placed as well as the % of production capacity that the plant will put towards Broncos. Obviously if you think the whole plant will only run at 80% efficiency and Broncos will be 50% of production, you'd look at the line for 40% (80% x 50%). The numbers in the body of the chart are how many days after production begins that all reservations be complete. Anything highlighted in red means that production would be complete within 291 days, or the time between 3/15/21 and the new calendar year.
Again, a little attempted positivity for these forums. Now we just need March '21 to stick.
Chris
That would be a surprise if they arrive in CY 2021. But even if they do, the tail end of deliveries will be MY 2022 (assuming Sept/Oct MY shift).All the members who took advantage of the Granger $2000 off invoice October reservation will get a pleasant surprise when their orders arrive in 2021.
For me, that's best case scenario, yeah? I don't care if I have the "first year" and from a resale perspective, it's better to have a more current vehicle.
And I am one of them, hence my (perhaps misguided) optimism. But I figured I could rely on math to prove my gut feeling.All the members who took advantage of the Granger $2000 off invoice October reservation will get a pleasant surprise when their orders arrive in 2021.
Works for me!All the members who took advantage of the Granger $2000 off invoice October reservation will get a pleasant surprise when their orders arrive in 2021.
If I’m not mistaken, MAP could do 300,000 back when it built Focus.
