My Calculations: About 3500 Domestic Bronco Raptor Orders Outstanding - Annual Production Estimate: 4,000

[swamp2]

Some great demand and capacity data for most of the Bronco line here in this 6g thread.

Interpreting the jargon there and doing some math, I calculate there are about 3500 Raptors on order yet to be produced. That is:

(100% - 60% - 23%) = 17% x 20,769 = 3531

No data is given for the 3.0 engine, but the other engines are stated and the total outstanding is also provided. Unfortunately, there is absolutely no information on capacity to build Raptors.

Other than the Heritage (purposefully limited production), all models seem to have capacity to build orders, but hard tops remain the highest constrained option (unbelievable...). If we assume this is the key constraint for Raptors then, I'd calculate Ford will be able to build.

(67/87.8) = 76% = 2694 (of the Raptors on order).

Probably a WAG, not even sure if this is the way to interpret the numbers. Seems reasonable.

If we have about 4 months of production left, this would put the annual Raptor production at about:

(12/8) x 2694 = 4041

Not terribly far off from prior WAGs for total annual Raptor volume of 3k.

Perhaps, I continue to see the world through rose colored glasses as to my chances of getting a '23 allocation.

Discuss!

Sponsored

 

[GroovyGeek]

3 years later and the hard top cluster***k is still ongoing. Last time I checked there are no semiconductors in those. And what kind of production and viability audits did they do with the sub supplier that were so badly foobar'd that 3 years later there is still no resolution? Did someone in the Ford planning office really say "We don't think we can outsell a 13 year old design, and will be perfectly happy with third place in the off-road battles"

 

[swamp2]

Am I the only obsessed Braptor nerd here? I know not. Talk to me peeps.

 

[350vudu]

Am I the only obsessed Braptor nerd here? I know not. Talk to me peeps.

I think a lot of us are out enjoying our Braptors. Lol. Every time I look out the window I make an excuse to go drive it.

 

[Spooled]

I'd be happier if production was closer to 3k. I want this thing to hold value. I'm not the type to keep vehicles long.

 

[najay]

I would still like them to release production numbers for 2022. We still don't know how many were built.

 

[raptorusmaximus]

I love driving mine... BUT, I would of preferred a soft top, the doors and top are off mine and I drive 12' raptor when it's raining. I really don't know why they won't allow soft tops seeing as they DO fit.

 

[JetG]

I love driving mine... BUT, I would of preferred a soft top, the doors and top are off mine and I drive 12' raptor when it's raining. I really don't know why they won't allow soft tops seeing as they DO fit.

I am thinking about buying a soft top for mine just for this purpose. The stock one seems to fit that a lot of folks are selling just need them to provide the brackets.

 

[swamp2]

I'd be happier if production was closer to 3k. I want this thing to hold value. I'm not the type to keep vehicles long.

I have no idea how close my SWAG may be... Looking for additional/independent SWAGs...

 

[swamp2]

I love driving mine... BUT, I would of preferred a soft top, the doors and top are off mine and I drive 12' raptor when it's raining. I really don't know why they won't allow soft tops seeing as they DO fit.

Not to get too OT, but why do you prefer soft top over hard top? Esp as the hard top is modular and piece-wise removable.

 

[computertom]

I would love something easy. Only thing I miss from my 392XR is the Sky One Touch top. So easy. Loved it. Have never taken the top / pieces off our Raptor. Want to though…

 

[Peter_benton]

I gave up waiting for raptor and bought a 22 maxlider

 

[5PC24]

Not to get too OT, but why do you prefer soft top over hard top? Esp as the hard top is modular and piece-wise removable.

For me its being in Pac NW and that even on sunny days you can get rain. No good way to carry around the mid panel to be able to put it back in if you're out and it starts raining. When I'm able to get the last 2 brackets I need for the soft top I'll use it during summer time and the hard top from mid Sept-April.

 

[vrtical]

Not to get too OT, but why do you prefer soft top over hard top? Esp as the hard top is modular and piece-wise removable.

I basically live in a rain forest environment we get pop up shows locally all over the place some times. Having just the front panels off is easy to store, the rest not soo much. I think I could solve it by running a non mesh cover over my mesh and something for the cargo area just haven't got around to that yet. The soft top is an option, but I actually off road so thats a no go and its a bit of PITA with the bracketry to keep swapping.

 

[swamp2]

I finally have a totally independent calculation that nicely verifies this.

• Total '22 annual production was 117.1k per Ford Authority, here.
• 3.2% of tracked (forum reported) Bronco's were Raptors in this consolidated build week tracking spreadsheet (11-2022 - 4/2023). Assuming that there is the same % of Raptors in the forum and non-forum audience.
• This places annual production at 3750
• This is within 7% of the estimate in my OP
• I'm getting more confident in a 3500-4000 number

Sponsored