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Coronovirus discussions

Nickp

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The statistic to me that blows me away is this: basically, coronavirus is about as infectious as the common cold. You know the one you get every year? And everybody in your office/ workplace? But instead of hospitalizing basically 0% of people like the common cold it hospitalizes 15-20% of people. Imagine the strain that would put on our hospital system if we let millions upon millions of people get infected all at once
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Carolina Jim

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Living in the "information age", we've grown accustomed to evaluating the numbers and forming our own conclusions. But with the virus, we're dealing with foreign, suspect data - making it hard to assess. For example in Italy:

"But the numbers thus far don’t tell the whole story. Provincial mayors are sounding an alarm that the virus-related toll fails to reflect a spike in deaths in the general population among those who have not been tested. Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighbouring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus."
 

RupertH

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This article is just more fear mongering.
Really? DId you read it? Seemed fairly reasonable to me. TLDR: If we do stupid things, lots of people will die, if we do smarter things, less people will die. Also, humans tend to panic, but sometimes one brave soul can save the world. Not that different than anything else really, Dumb=Dead Sooner, Smart=Dead Later. All told, a solid article with a somewhat clickbait-y headline that's probably all you read...

Living in the "information age", we've grown accustomed to evaluating the numbers and forming our own conclusions. But with the virus, we're dealing with foreign, suspect data - making it hard to assess. For example in Italy:

"But the numbers thus far don’t tell the whole story. Provincial mayors are sounding an alarm that the virus-related toll fails to reflect a spike in deaths in the general population among those who have not been tested. Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighbouring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus."
No, we've grown accustomed to getting our conclusions handed to us from our preferred vendor of opinions. Case in point, foreign != suspect.

It's not at all difficult to assess the data in that example. The point was (the article goes on, in case you didn't understand the point up front) that overwhelming the medical system had 2nd- and 3rd-order effects on the population. The lack of hospital beds and qualified caregivers caused what were likely treatable conditions to go un-treated and therefore become fatal. People who went to a hospital for an unrelated issue contract the virus and die. Etc.

Also, perhaps ironically (not in the article, just my own musing) isolation will ALSO cause death! Some guy, somewhere, who normally eats out constantly, will eat alone in his apartment and choke on a piece of steak. No one will be there to save him.

Life has risks, and humans are historically poor at pricing risk. How many people stress out about getting on an airplane the whole time they hurtle down the highway in a 2-ton killing machine on their way to the airport? Meanwhile, their time on that plane is probably the safest period they'll experience that entire day. In addition, the people in positions of responsibility are far more likely to be tared & feathered by their constituents for underreacting in the face of an epidemic that costs lives than for acting with an abundance of caution and causing stress on people's lives. For evidence, look at Katrina response. People died, partly because the government's orders to evacuate were late and poorly emphasized.
 

Nickp

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California .gov projecting 56% of it’s population getting infected over the next 8 weeks. If that happens... that’s going to be bad.

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Randy92Fox

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Living in the "information age", we've grown accustomed to evaluating the numbers and forming our own conclusions. But with the virus, we're dealing with foreign, suspect data - making it hard to assess. For example in Italy:

"But the numbers thus far don’t tell the whole story. Provincial mayors are sounding an alarm that the virus-related toll fails to reflect a spike in deaths in the general population among those who have not been tested. Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighbouring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus."
Conversely there are also an unknown number of people that have/had the virus but weren't tested because the average person doesn't go to a medical facility when they have symptoms of a common cold.

Also, there is a shortage of the test kits so only those at high risk are being tested. If only those at high risk are tested and go into the confirmed cases statistic then the numbers are highly inflated when some of those people at high risk die.
 

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Carolina Jim

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there are also an unknown number
you're 100% correct; we don't know the numerator, and we don't know the denominator. Tests are in short supply, but as far as I can tell, they are accurate. The WHO test accuracy might as well be a coin-toss...heads you have it & tails you don't.
 

Nickp

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This is a great video by one of my favorite YouTube creators. They are super unbiased IMO and everybody should watch this.
 

kdm_42089

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JimmyDean

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I don't know if this has been posted or not yet, but I'm going to share anyway (can't hurt, I suppose)

U.S
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (Active cases: 100% Mild; Closed cases: 65% death rate, 35% recover)

World
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Active cases: 95% mild, 5% critical; Closed cases: 11% death rate, 89% recover)
The high death rate is due to us still being in fairly early stages, and that the first outbreaks were retirement homes. Not overly concerned on the current fatality rate, expect it to start dropping in a week or so.
 

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kdm_42089

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The high death rate is due to us still being in fairly early stages, and that the first outbreaks were retirement homes. Not overly concerned on the current fatality rate, expect it to start dropping in a week or so.
I agree that it will likely drop. Just sharing a source to keep those who want to, posted with the numbers.
 

Carolina Jim

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those who want to, posted with the numbers.
'Numbers' are about to be passé. In many parts of the US, they've stopped confirming your diagnosis with a CV test unless you're being admitted to the hospital. So even if your spouse has it and you have all the symptoms, if they send you home to recover the numbers don't tick up.
 

kdm_42089

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'Numbers' are about to be passé. In many parts of the US, they've stopped confirming your diagnosis with a CV test unless you're being admitted to the hospital. So even if your spouse has it and you have all the symptoms, if they send you home to recover the numbers don't tick up.
I don't believe that's accurate. Actually, I would believe it would be quite the opposite and they would report pretty much anyone for the time being. It definitely feeds into an "agenda" if you want to believe there is one for media. It also helps support the request for more tests being needed. Even if you don't have all the symptoms or are admitted you can still transmit, so I would assume they would still be testing and reporting. I suppose I could be wrong though
 

Carolina Jim

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