Latest Bronco Production Key Commodity Constraints (7/3/23)

[abz]

You are reading the data wrong. 79% of the ~16k outstanding orders are indeed for Advanced 4x4, the capacity to build Adv. 4 x 4 is 64% of the total remaining '23 build totals. That is about 10k/month x 4 months or about 40k (production of '23s will end in Nov. and this assumes Ranger production will not drastically affect Bronco production). 64% of 40k is ~26k. So you should compare ~13k orders to ~26k capacity (specifically for Advanced 4x4).

I thought the math is 64% - 79% = (15%), the percentage numbers are of the same base, otherwise there's no point of the 3rd column

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[NVCowboy]

Sooo if I’m correct. There’s roughly 980 B left in the order banks? I have to get scheduled soon right?!?! And I have a softie

It took 18 months and change for my BD to ship (I received the email yesterday). It appears the entire trim package was its own special constraint (I started to wonder if that was the case after a while). No matter, because I bought a Big Bend Squatch off the lot in early January, and I’m very happy. It’d be fun if my Significant or offspring also wanted a Bronco, but I didn’t marry or produce a clone, so I’ll touch it, wish it well and let it go to inventory. The only things I miss are washouts and steelies have their own special charm. I’ve grown attached to Sasquatch, Cactus, and the Sandstone interior.

 

[FloridaBroncoPipeDream]

I gotta say, if you have the option to go high or mid package go for it. Lux package is okay but definitely not worth the price. I would do the same if I could go back in time.

 

[TCB-1]

Sooo if I’m correct. There’s roughly 980 B left in the order banks? I have to get scheduled soon right?!?! And I have a softie

If it helps any, I ordered 2 B ’s less than a month and a half ago. One was a backup order. I got an email last week that BOTH were scheduled for build in 8/7. Both 2 door hardtop, 2.7, SAS packages. You know, everything they told me NOT to order.

Hang in there. They’ve been pushing a ton of B ’s through for August. Couple that with a soft top on yours, I bet you get scheduled soon.

 

[orange01z28]

So why is Ford having so many problems with the Bronco, Maverick, Lightning, etc when other manufacturers are doing fine?

 

[TCB-1]

So why is Ford having so many problems with the Bronco, Maverick, Lightning, etc when other manufacturers are doing fine?

Can’t speak for the Lightning, but I seriously think Ford misjudged the popularity of the Mav and Bronco. Add to that Covid, factories in China issues, recalls, post assembly line “fixes”. I just think the Mav and Bronco have been trying to battle out of their situations before they even began rolling down the line.

 

[swamp2]

They are not of the same base, one is a percentage of current unscheduled orders in the order banks, the other is a percentage of production capacity, obviously orders banks number and production capacity are very different. Currently there are 16,300 unscheduled orders left in the order banks to over 44k production capacity left for MY 23.
Indeed, the third column does not make sense and is a source of much confusion, it is a historical artifact, it was created when order banks numbers exceeded production capacity in previous years, so it made sense then. Ford needs to update their summary tables.

Thanks. That's even more info than I had.

That said, how do we reconcile these facts.

• Order banks closed
• 16k unscheduled orders
• Roughly 10k/month line capacity
• '23 models years to be built for ~4 more months -> ~40k capacity

Is the Ranger going to take up the large extra capacity?

 

[Wardognal]

You are reading the data wrong. 79% of the ~16k outstanding orders are indeed for Advanced 4x4, the capacity to build Adv. 4 x 4 is 64% of the total remaining '23 build totals. That is about 10k/month x 4 months or about 40k (production of '23s will end in Nov. and this assumes Ranger production will not drastically affect Bronco production). 64% of 40k is ~26k. So you should compare ~13k orders to ~26k capacity (specifically for Advanced 4x4).

Capacity is for the rest of MY23. Otherwise nothing would be balanced out. Scheduled orders are already into the 1st week of September. There is only about six to eight weeks left in MY23 to schedule the 16K+ Orders at the time this constraint list hit. Those unscheduled can change their orders to get scheduled or not. Order banks are still open for non constraint fits.

 

[Wardognal]

The way I understand capacity is that for the MY23 there is 10,450 Advanced 4x4 components to fill the unscheduled orders. There is a mathematical chance that 19,800 more Broncos can be scheduled, but the chances to meet 100% capacity is slim. 19,800 is based on 16,327 x 1.21. 21 percent is the total number of trim packages in the positive on this list.

 

[abz]

They are not of the same base, one is a percentage of current unscheduled orders in the order banks, the other is a percentage of production capacity, obviously orders banks number and production capacity are very different. Currently there are 16,300 unscheduled orders left in the order banks to over 44k production capacity left for MY 23.
Indeed, the third column does not make sense and is a source of much confusion, it is a historical artifact, it was created when order banks numbers exceeded production capacity in previous years, so it made sense then. Ford needs to update their summary tables.

But that’s a totally different argument, maybe production capacity left is for September, October and half of November that’s easily 25k production capacity left. you were arguing earlier that the percentage is from the same base of unscheduled orders, now you are just minimizing 2023 production capacity For MY 23.

so if Ford can produce 25k Broncos for the rest of MY23, which is just over 1.5x of the 16k in order banks. Multiplying 1.5 on the percentages in the 1st column: there's no constraints on anything except HE, and everyone is getting their Broncos before Christmas... as much as I like to think this way, I'm not that optimistic.

 

[Imaginary Friend]

Can’t speak for the Lightning, but I seriously think Ford misjudged the popularity of the Mav and Bronco. Add to that Covid, factories in China issues, recalls, post assembly line “fixes”. I just think the Mav and Bronco have been trying to battle out of their situations before they even began rolling down the line.

Personally, I believe Ford's allocation nonsense is their own worst enemy. I'll bet it really screws up their ability to forecast (especially with a vehicle with the option possibilities like Bronco), which ties directly into current supply chain issues. Throw in the rest of the issues stated and it's quite the pot of stew.

I think they knew the vehicles in question would be popular, maybe not to the degree they are, however. But my current Jeep JL took 42 days from order to delivery, and from what I hear there are plenty of contraints and demand for them as well. Something doesn't add up in Broncoville.

 

[Wardognal]

It appears that Ford is going to be within 5% of maxing out capacity with order banks. From their perspective that is as good as it gets. It’s great for Dealerships also, they are selling at MSRP without a dent in their floor plan.

42 days from order to delivery; that baby was already built hope to find a home.

I can go down and get any dog out of the pound tomorrow, but if you want a pure bred you have to wait.

 

[OrlandoOBX]

it also seems that they aren’t getting the orders they thought, we all thought the order banks would be open for only week or two and be closed, with all the MY22 rollovers and reservation holders putting in first then retail orders, they may not get enough orders to fill out year, possibly.

 

[Sgroll]

The way I understand capacity is that for the MY23 there is 10,450 Advanced 4x4 components to fill the unscheduled orders. There is a mathematical chance that 19,800 more Broncos can be scheduled, but the chances to meet 100% capacity is slim. 19,800 is based on 16,327 x 1.21. 21 percent is the total number of trim packages in the positive on this list.

Still standing fast though. I think they hate price protection orders and are just making us sweat it out hoping we tap out.
Bronco love + Ford hate = PAIN

 

[Bronco_Parkin]

Can’t speak for the Lightning, but I seriously think Ford misjudged the popularity of the Mav and Bronco. Add to that Covid, factories in China issues, recalls, post assembly line “fixes”. I just think the Mav and Bronco have been trying to battle out of their situations before they even began rolling down the line.

I think this is half true for both. Initial demand caused the issue, we are far past constraints being as much of a factor as they were even 6 months ago. In my opinion, a lot of this is self inflicted or designed.

Personally, I believe Ford's allocation nonsense is their own worst enemy. I'll bet it really screws up their ability to forecast (especially with a vehicle with the option possibilities like Bronco), which ties directly into current supply chain issues. Throw in the rest of the issues stated and it's quite the pot of stew.

I think they knew the vehicles in question would be popular, maybe not to the degree they are, however. But my current Jeep JL took 42 days from order to delivery, and from what I hear there are plenty of contraints and demand for them as well. Something doesn't add up in Broncoville.

Agreed, allocation is messing with a lot. Its not just wranglers, just about anything can be ordered and built within 2 months now.

It appears that Ford is going to be within 5% of maxing out capacity with order banks. From their perspective that is as good as it gets. It’s great for Dealerships also, they are selling at MSRP without a dent in their floor plan.

42 days from order to delivery; that baby was already built hope to find a home.

I can go down and get any dog out of the pound tomorrow, but if you want a pure bred you have to wait.

I disagree, other than Toyota every one seems to be able to build just about anything at this point within the 2-3 month mark from what I am seeing. Ford seems to be having the most issues.

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