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Strike Impacts - Orders & Production, '24 MY Change Over

Dmesser92

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I wouldn't want my build going down the line when they come back either. Let's assume they get a big raise out of this, now we are taking "quality lacking production" and inflating their heads even more by giving them more money. If everyone thought quality sucked before, wait until the entitled get rewarded for it.
It certainly won't help but to be fair, I think a lot of the Bronco's issues come from poor engineering. All the pride in the world won't solve bad design on the assembly line.
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Wardognal

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Getting off topic here, me included. Oh well there are many strike threads and I enjoy the discussion.



Sure. But beyond deciding on a single target, one must decide which singular target. That was what I was getting at.



Focusing on pay raises, which is obviously the most contentious and critical factor, the gap so far has narrowed by almost half (Initial UAW 46%, Ford initial 9%, currently UAW mid 30's and Stellantis mid teens - I can't find exact figures - it doesn't seem they are being made public yet thus (46-9) = 37 vs (35-15) = 20). Half is pretty good days before a potential strike.

I think the offers will be "serious" well before strikers have been at it for months. I also think the final pay numbers will be closer to initial Big 3 numbers than initial UAW demands.
UAW leadership will be judged on getting the 32hour work accepted. They will not budge on this until a majority of the membership balks on this demand. That will take a lot of economic pain on both parties before we see a resolution. None of the companies can survive, be competitive with other manufacturers with a 32 hour work week base pay. Time will tell, but if they strike it will be a long strike.
 
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swamp2

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...
None of the companies can survive, be competitive with other manufacturers with a 32 hour work week base pay.
I haven't ran the financial impact of this detail through my giant modeling/predictive spreadsheet (that you know the Big 3 actually have and continually use). But given that the UAW also want an immediate 20% pay bump and 32 vs. 40 is also 20%, I strongly suspect they could easily survive this change.

Time will tell, but if they strike it will be a long strike.
Nice to have a crystal ball 😉
 
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swamp2

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Lots of good information here (regardless of whether you like socialism...)

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/09/13/aomu-s13.html

1. UAW have dropped their demand for a 32 hour work week.
2. Strike plans are not all members across all facilities but a rolling/surprise/targeted approach (called a "stand-up strike). First rumored locations are not good for keeping Broncos rolling off the MAP and include the Livonia transmission plant and the Cleveland engine plant (these are where Bronco trannsmissions and engines come from).
 

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Wardognal

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Lots of good information here (regardless of whether you like socialism...)

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/09/13/aomu-s13.html

1. UAW have dropped their demand for a 32 hour work week.
2. Strike plans are not all members across all facilities but a rolling/surprise/targeted approach (called a "stand-up strike). First rumored locations are not good for keeping Broncos rolling off the MAP and include the Livonia transmission plant and the Cleveland engine plant (these are where Bronco trannsmissions and engines come from).
It is good to see they have dropped the 32 hour work week . The Leadership is being raked over the coals already. The strategic isolated plant strike was floated around a few weeks back. It would give the UAW the ability to strike longer , or provide supplemental pay longer. But this socialist article didn’t appreciate that aspect of the plan. The next few weeks will be interesting.

On the positive side, this article bodes well for those already scheduled. Thanks for sharing.
 
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swamp2

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On the positive side, this article bodes well for those already scheduled. Thanks for sharing.
I think the opposite, again cut off engines and trannies and no vehicles will get built. I'm sure those major components are pretty much JIT type production.
 

Wardognal

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I think the opposite, again cut off engines and trannies and no vehicles will get built. I'm sure those major components are pretty much JIT type production.
All engines and transmissions have already been procured for anyone Scheduled. As long as the assembly continues to run, the scheduled builds will be completed for MY23. Now MY24 is another story, but no order for MY24 has been scheduled yet.
 
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swamp2

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All engines and transmissions have already been procured for anyone Scheduled. As long as the assembly continues to run, the scheduled builds will be completed for MY23. Now MY24 is another story, but no order for MY24 has been scheduled yet.
Thanks for the discussion.

What do you mean precisely by procured? Scheduled for build, parts have been made, assembly has been completed? If the latter is the case, Ford are doing a poor job of JIT and are thus being inefficient. It would be one thing for these major components to be completed for my 18th build week, but to claim that all engines and trannies for periods through Oct-Nov are "procured" seems a bit bold. Do you have some direct or similar experience at a large auto OEM? What is your source or basis for such a claim?
 

Wardognal

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Thanks for the discussion.

What do you mean precisely by procured? Scheduled for build, parts have been made, assembly has been completed? If the latter is the case, Ford are doing a poor job of JIT and are thus being inefficient. It would be one thing for these major components to be completed for my 18th build week, but to claim that all engines and trannies for periods through Oct-Nov are "procured" seems a bit bold. Do you have some direct or similar experience at a large auto OEM? What is your source or basis for such a claim?
My experience at large auto OEM plants is limited to building them. However, we all have access to great resources right here at Bronco6G (https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...retail-unscheduled-orders-9-5-23.80893/unread) . This article indicates that not only all drive trains are already secured for scheduled orders, but all motors and automatic transmissions are available for the 10,171 unscheduled orders. How efficient Ford is would be a judgment call based on expectations. For me, I placed an order on 5-15-23, and picked up my Bronco on 9-1-23. I didn’t expect it that quick, so in my view they are very efficient. I know that others have had different experiences, and they would view Ford as inefficient.
 

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swamp2

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My experience at large auto OEM plants is limited to building them.
That sounds pretty cool!

However, we all have access to great resources right here at Bronco6G (https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...retail-unscheduled-orders-9-5-23.80893/unread) . This article indicates that not only all drive trains are already secured for scheduled orders, but all motors and automatic transmissions are available for the 10,171 unscheduled orders.
I see no references in that link as to component/subsystem build status nor availability. I'd be surprised if Ford shared data of that fidelity. Wrong link? Am I missing something? All I see is the retail USOB report that is shared almost weekly.
 

Tnkirk

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Does anyone have enough understanding to determine what impact a strike, which includes FMC, will have on orders/production and the '23 -> '24 transition? I think the model year transition is supposed to happen in Oct. or Nov. Anyone know what happened with GM in 2019? I assume that was around a MY transition as well?

Assume there is a strike against FMC and it is something like 1-2 months.

Is it likely/possible that already scheduled vehicles will be built, after a the new UAW contract, and sold as '23s, just delayed? If there were any significant model year changes to the vehicles, this seems likely, as much of the components and materials are already in process or in hand and those would need to be consumed. But '24s aren't really any different...

Instead, maybe FMC will cancel all remaining '23 MY builds and restart the line with '24s?

My build date (18th) is the week after the UAW contract expiration. Heck, I'd bet a strike would even shut down getting a completed vehicle from FMC to dealers. Someone would have to load it onto the trucks and that's probably a union person.


I have a vin #.....???????
 
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swamp2

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The Big 3 keep moving up their offers. Fain said Ford has offered a 20% increase over the four years of the deal, followed by GM at 18% and Stellantis at 17.5%. Ford started out at 9%!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/where-uaw-negotations-stand-ahead-of-likely-strikes.html
Interesting article. It appears that UAW leadership has not dropped the 32 hour work week, or if it has this article failed to report it. The wage increase is one of 8 issues. The offered increase is to frame the Manufactures in a good light with their share holders, they know the UAW is more concerned with the other issues. The entire point was to say “ look we are trying to avoid a strike, Fain would not even come back with a counter”. Tiers, Cola, Temps, ect …anre the issues that are going to be played out in the months to come . Bernie Sanders vs Ford and GM. Stalantis will just have to conform to what these two agree to. Poor working man vs Billionaires. Typical class envy diatribe that has little to do with obtaining a contract.
 

Williamoscar23

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Today is the big day for the strike - my build week is next week I don’t see that happening 😭😭. Still scheduled for production but not in production - in it for the long haul. Best of luck to everyone.
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