Strike Impacts - Orders & Production, '24 MY Change Over

[swamp2]

Does anyone have enough understanding to determine what impact a strike, which includes FMC, will have on orders/production and the '23 -> '24 transition? I think the model year transition is supposed to happen in Oct. or Nov. Anyone know what happened with GM in 2019? I assume that was around a MY transition as well?

Assume there is a strike against FMC and it is something like 1-2 months.

Is it likely/possible that already scheduled vehicles will be built, after a the new UAW contract, and sold as '23s, just delayed? If there were any significant model year changes to the vehicles, this seems likely, as much of the components and materials are already in process or in hand and those would need to be consumed. But '24s aren't really any different...

Instead, maybe FMC will cancel all remaining '23 MY builds and restart the line with '24s?

My build date (18th) is the week after the UAW contract expiration. Heck, I'd bet a strike would even shut down getting a completed vehicle from FMC to dealers. Someone would have to load it onto the trucks and that's probably a union person.

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[HBTFD]

If there is a strike the schedule will be pushed out the length of the strike. Once the UAW agrees to come back to work the schedule will pick back up where it stopped. 2024 model change will be pushed back.

 

[Wardognal]

The UAW could strike all 3 or just strike 1 of the three, or strike some plants of each. The UAW has 3 months of strikes benefits if it is an all out strike. Their demands will not be meet or even close. Some sort of strike is going to occur.
I expect this one to last 5 to 6 months, maybe even longer.

 

[HBTFD]

Back in Fall '21 there were lots of production delays and people were asking questions about the '22 model year transition. Some people said once the VIN is assigned, then it has to be built as that model year. And people said the blend date (body + frame) had to be done before New Years I think.
During a strike might be different ?

All the 23 parts are ordered/ford is committed to purchasing. It would take a cataclysmic event to change the schedule drastically.

Ford and the UAW membership cannot survive a prolonged strike. The strike pay is not sustainable for most members.

 

[swamp2]

If there is a strike the schedule will be pushed out the length of the strike. Once the UAW agrees to come back to work the schedule will pick back up where it stopped. 2024 model change will be pushed back.

Thanks. Sounds logical and this certainly helps me maintain some optimism about my own order. That said, can you tell us how you know this to be the case?

All the 23 parts are ordered/ford is committed to purchasing. It would take a cataclysmic event to change the schedule drastically..

Also, as I noted, '24s are nearly identical to '23s. So, the parts ordering doesn't really have to change/adjust/transition, just things like Lux and screen sizes in different quantities.

 

[HBTFD]

I worked for ford for a while. There are multiple part and programming changes transparent to the consumer that happen at model change. Ford could call the remaining 2023s 2024 models but the old 23s would stay in sequence until all were run.

 

[daddycreswell]

The UAW could strike all 3 or just strike 1 of the three, or strike some plants of each. The UAW has 3 months of strikes benefits if it is an all out strike. Their demands will not be meet or even close. Some sort of strike is going to occur.
I expect this one to last 5 to 6 months, maybe even longer.

I work for local government, in the process of ordering 10 trucks right now. I was told by every dealership I contacted..... good luck all the manufactures are going on strike.

 

[Donovan_93]

I heard that all remaining 23' orders that haven't gone into production will be canceled come October to make way for the new 24's. There is no more base, every model is now getting the big 12" screen, and there are a bunch of other upgrades coming for 24'. I really hope this stupid strike doesn't last long... I want my 24" Badlands!

 

[Wardognal]

I work for local government, in the process of ordering 10 trucks right now. I was told by every dealership I contacted..... good luck all the manufactures are going on strike.

Yep the UAW has a good hand right, but they will over play it. Right now the leadership has over 90% support. It will take months of missed paychecks for the membership to pressure the leadership to settle .

 

[flip]

Sure as hell wouldn't want my build going down the line the afternoon of the 12th....that would suck.

 

[NatureMan]

All the 23 parts are ordered/ford is committed to purchasing. It would take a cataclysmic event to change the schedule drastically.

Ford and the UAW membership cannot survive a prolonged strike. The strike pay is not sustainable for most members.

I don't see many UAW workers surviving on $500 a week.

 

[swamp2]

Ford could call the remaining 2023s 2024 models but the old 23s would stay in sequence until all were run.

That is a huge practical difference, as it would cancel all of the in MY price protections. For me it would mean well over $10k in price bumps. It doesn't matter if the actual parts were meant to be in a '23 vehicle, if FMC calls them a '24 then it is a '24. This sounds a bit opposite from your initial post #2... Can you clarify your hypothesis? Thanks again.

 

[laudra]

Does anyone have enough understanding to determine what impact a strike, which includes FMC, will have on orders/production and the '23 -> '24 transition? I think the model year transition is supposed to happen in Oct. or Nov. Anyone know what happened with GM in 2019? I assume that was around a MY transition as well?

Assume there is a strike against FMC and it is something like 1-2 months.

Is it likely/possible that already scheduled vehicles will be built, after a the new UAW contract, and sold as '23s, just delayed? If there were any significant model year changes to the vehicles, this seems likely, as much of the components and materials are already in process or in hand and those would need to be consumed. But '24s aren't really any different...

Instead, maybe FMC will cancel all remaining '23 MY builds and restart the line with '24s?

My build date (18th) is the week after the UAW contract expiration. Heck, I'd bet a strike would even shut down getting a completed vehicle from FMC to dealers. Someone would have to load it onto the trucks and that's probably a union person.

Ford has already said that the 23MY Bronco will be made through December Its going to be a 13 month build run. There another person who's 2022 Bronco was delivered in 2023, he was scheduled but the strike isn't going to help our situations

 

[HBTFD]

That is a huge practical difference, as it would cancel all of the in MY price protections. For me it would mean well over $10k in price bumps. It doesn't matter if the actual parts were meant to be in a '23 vehicle, if FMC calls them a '24 then it is a '24. This sounds a bit opposite from your initial post #2... Can you clarify your hypothesis? Thanks again.

To be clear, it would take a lot of heavy lifting for Ford to change every 23 to 24s after a lengthy strike. All the VINs have parts on order from suppliers and some supply chains are months long. Remember all the delays on the 21 broncos? First production units were built in May as 21s. Most ford 22 models launched in July but the broncos ran 21s until right before Christmas. It’s very difficult to coordinate 1000s of parts coming together on 1000s of vehicles. If Ford canceled the remaining 23s they are on the hook for all the obsolete parts and the costs to expedite the 2024 parts thru the supply chains. It could happen but it would take extreme circumstances to drive changing the remaining 23s to 24s.

 

[Hdscreens]

I predict GM will be hit first then Stallanis and Ford last on strikes. I don’t think they will all go at once. Helps prolong UAW funds while giving two manufactures a perspective of what’s to come.

What I’m curious about is if the manufactures can simply hire non UAW workforce and get rid of the UAW? I would think they can once contracts have expired. The average car buyer is tired of all this car shortage and supply shortage BS. They just want to buy their vehicles easily and cheaply.

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