Trying to understand allocations

[BlueBronco]

Ford has not given out a yearly estimate so your salesman is only guessing. Ask him where on the list you fall. If they had 400 total reservations then they should have received 100 or so allocations for MY21. MY22 should be more.

Granger has 11 for the month

Not exactly. They received 11 for 2022 Model Year production start up...

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[CPL_Rabbit]

Ford has not given out a yearly estimate so your salesman is only guessing. Ask him where on the list you fall. If they had 400 total reservations then they should have received 100 or so allocations for MY21. MY22 should be more.


Not exactly. They received 11 for 2022 Model Year production start up...

Is that not the same as first month? I'm genuinely curious. It's a learning experience.

 

[Rahkmalla]

It means for the year. You're going to have to wait.

Not exactly. Ford has stated they are not releasing yearly allocations. If the salesman took their 1st month allocation of 13 and extrapolated, he could land at 60-70 for the year, but he doesn't know for sure.

HOPEFULLY, first month or two allocations are lower than subsequent months as production increases.

But then again... name one thing that's gone well so far?

 

[MG704]

Does anybody know if there is somewhere else besides the dealer that allocation information can be found?

I'm not sure about that

 

[MG704]

Out of curiosity, can you tell us what dealer this is, or at least the size of the market there? That is a very small number for the year. Only about 5 per month, give or take.

Mark Ficken Ford Charlotte NC

 

[mbagne]

Some of the published numbers might help. We see that the number of total reservations that have converted to orders is about 125,000. To that we can add newbies walking into dealerships and ordering without a reservation. Now, subtract from all that the number of Broncos produced and delivered here in 2021. The resulting number should equal the amount of Broncos that Ford is challenged to deliver in 2022.

There are approximately 3,000 dealerships in the US. If it is true that each dealer could get an allocation of up to 60 Broncos for the year (of course some dealerships will get less and some will get more, this is an average ), that would be 60 X 3,000 = 180,000.

Questions:
1) Can Ford make 180,000 Broncos in 2022?
2) Is the number of reservations that are being pushed into 2022 PLUS newbie/ongoing walk-in orders more or less than 180,000? We can only guestimate right now.

Don't forget that all the talk about Ford "ramping up production" in 2022 is at the mercy of continuing covid unknowns and global supply chain issues, not the least of which is a chip shortage that the tech industry is saying will continue well into 2023. This could mean that Ford will have limited production capability no matter how hard they try to "ramp it up" internally. We may see "Dirt Mountain 2" looming throughout 2022. Perhaps more hammocks will be going out?

Not trying to be a pessimist here, just sharing some thoughts and numbers. If anyone has more exacting numbers to refine this, please chime in.

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