Question about dealer allocations - I guess I still don't understand

[Maximus3311]

Hey everyone - so I'm making this post mainly out of curiosity because I guess that, after all these years, I still don't understand how dealer allocations work.

I'll start off by saying I haven't been waiting nearly as long as a lot of people on here (I reserved and ordered Feb 2021). Like a lot of people on here I had a pretty loaded order that I've now modified (I had Badlands SAS 2.7 LUX MIC Mod bumper TOW). When the news about this current nonsense came out I immediately called my dealer and had them remove Tow, LUX, and SAS (I was back and forth on SAS since I already had the Badlands coming and had been leaning towards removing it and installing a leveling kit and aftermarket wheels/35" tires so it didn't look like every other Bronco around here).

I was really struggling with the MIC top though - I know the soft is great but since I'm going to be turning this into an overlanding rig I wanted the hard top so I could put on something like the Trailrax roof rack with pax rak sides and a light bar...etc etc (you get the idea).

My dealer told me to hold off removing anything else since they were getting their allocation numbers from Ford Friday (yesterday).

Yesterday he called and told me they have 100 orders outstanding and that with the allocation numbers Ford gave them they have enough to get every customer's order built in 2023. I asked out of curiosity if I put the SAS and Tow package back on if it'd still be built in 23 and he said yes...just that it would likely be later in the year (I opted not to put them back on).

I didn't want to eat up a ton of his time but I guess I still don't truly understand the process. Does an "x" allocation number mean that Ford will have the parts to build *whatever* the dealership's customers have on order? My understanding was that a dealership was going to get xxx number of Broncos - but if Ford couldn't build (for instance) the 10 Wildtracks on order they'd ship the dealership one of the more "basic" models.

In the end if what I was told is correct I feel incredibly lucky. Like I said I know I haven't been waiting nearly as long as lot of people on here...but being told that I should be able to get my Bronco this year eases my mind a bit.

Sponsored

 

[KirchTX]

I'm not real sure anyone truly understands the allocation formula. Those of us that went with a dealer like Granger, Stevens, etc that went the volume order route are really just in the dark.

It's a total gamble on whether we'll actually see something in 2023 or have to reorder at a higher price in 2024. Since March 7 is the new deadline to make a decision, I'm planning on waiting until March to let some more facts come to light. On Bronco Nation forum their official post specifically referenced these sort of dealers and that they would get more allocations but who really knows. If it goes from 10/month to 15 that doesn't change a whole lot. They need more like 50 or 75/month to start making headway through their lists that I belive are still 1000+ deep and Ford will not let us move dealers.

 

[hemiblas]

At the end of the day dealer allocations mean nothing when it comes to parts constraints. If Ford doesnt have enough SAS wheels, tires, or axles...your rig may not get built in 2023 regardless of dealer allocations.

 

[Maximus3311]

At the end of the day dealer allocations mean nothing when it comes to parts constraints. If Ford doesnt have enough SAS wheels, tires, or axles...your rig may not get built in 2023 regardless of dealer allocations.

That's sort of what I was thinking. Guess it was a good choice not to throw the Sas or tow back on there. Ah well the only "constraint" I have left is the MIC top and I'm pretty close to the top of the list at my dealer. Hopefully that doesn't pooch the deal. I'm getting pretty damn impatient but I want that hard top - a good portion of my planned build relies on that.

 

[hemiblas]

That's sort of what I was thinking. Guess it was a good choice not to throw the Sas or tow back on there. Ah well the only "constraint" I have left is the MIC top and I'm pretty close to the top of the list at my dealer. Hopefully that doesn't pooch the deal. I'm getting pretty damn impatient but I want that hard top - a good portion of my planned build relies on that.

As you mentioned anyone that has a badlands on order can easily remove SAS and it isnt that big of a deal. You can do that aftermarket and come out with nicer wheels and tires.

If hard top is important than keep it. Better to have less constraints.

 

[Maximus3311]

As you mentioned anyone that has a badlands on order can easily remove SAS and it isnt that big of a deal. You can do that aftermarket and come out with nicer wheels and tires.

If hard top is important than keep it. Better to have less constraints.

Yeah ultimately that's what I came around to. I don't need to be a special snowflake or anything - but I drove by 5 Broncos yesterday and they all had the sasquatch package. Just a little too "same-y" for my taste. My plan is (if this vehicle isn't an absolute POS) to keep this more or less forever. Might buy some property for a fishing cabin up in Alaska or Montana and if I do that going to build a small A frame and when this Bronco gets pretty long in the tooth it'll be my local vehicle for up there.

Anyway yeah that's what I came around to - I'm never going to run anything larger than 35" tires so (I've been told) the slightly different gearing on the sas package doesn't really matter (I'm also not going to do any *hardcore* offroading - just need a vehicle with enough clearance/capability that I can go where everyone here and their stock subaru can't quite reach).

So tow is gone (realistically I'm never going to need to tow something with a trailer brake), lux is gone (just not worth it to me) and Sasquatch...like you said better options since I already have what I need capability-wise on the stock badlands.

 

[CPL_Rabbit]

Here's my shot at explaining it.
Note that I am not an expert. Nor did I even stay at a Holiday Inn Express recently.

Say there are three dealers in the country. Each with 10 orders and 2 allocations a month.

Dealer#1 - the first 3 orders are constrained, so order#4 gets built first.

Dealer#2 - order#8 is the first unconstrained, so that gets built.

Dealer#3 - order#1 is unconstrained and built.

This pattern starts again to fill the second allocation for each.

Note that the very first order at dealer#1 might get passed up over and over until the parts are available to build. And the next order that matches it will wait even longer.

 

[Maximus3311]

Here's my shot at explaining it.
Note that I am not an expert. Nor did I even stay at a Holiday Inn Express recently.

Say there are three dealers in the country. Each with 10 orders and 2 allocations a month.

Dealer#1 - the first 3 orders are constrained, so order#4 gets built first.

Dealer#2 - order#8 is the first unconstrained, so that gets built.

Dealer#3 - order#1 is unconstrained and built.

This pattern starts again to fill the second allocation for each.

Note that the very first order at dealer#1 might get passed up over and over until the parts are available to build. And the next order that matches it will wait even longer.

Thanks makes sense! Hopefully me only having the MIC (and even though tow isn't currently listed as a major constraint I know it at least was an issue before) as the major constraint will help.

At this point the only options I have selected above the base Badlands are 2.7 Leather MIC High. My list definitely looks a bit different than it did a week ago and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that I've removed enough to get my ticket pulled.

 

[RagnarKon]

OKAY...

Every model year dealers are provided an allocation estimate for the the entire production year. They keyword in that statement is ESTIMATE. These estimates are consider confidential information and dealers are not supposed to share those estimates with the wider public, as it could impact share price and cause all kinds of SEC nonsense. The estimate is given to dealers so they know roughly how many vehicles they can sell during a particular model year, which allows them to ensure they don't OVER sell. If they over sell, customer orders may get bumped to the next model year, which leads to unhappy customers. Many dealers won't even take orders at all without those estimates, and I believe dealers have started receiving their estimates for the Bronco the past few weeks (or at least, my dealer did). Those estimates aren't perfect. For example... the 2021MY estimates that were provided to dealers were wildly inaccurate because a gigantic supply chain crisis hit the world shortly after 2021MY production began.

The "actual" allocation numbers are provided to dealers on a monthly-ish basis. The allocation numbers they get is based on market basket analysis. The exact formula is complicated, especially for a new vehicle. So to avoid going into college-level economics, it generally boils down to previous vehicle sales. The better your vehicle sales have been, the more allocation you get.

After a dealer receives monthly allocations, Ford's scheduling system will start going down the list to determine which orders to pull for scheduling. As it begins to identify those orders, it will label them as "Previewing". There is a priority list:

1. Order Priority Code (or reservation timestamp, in the case of the Bronco)
2. Order Timestamp
3. Available commodities and/or manufacturing capacity

The scheduling system will continue to cycle through the order list until it has fulfilled all of the allocations. If, for example, you order is Priority Code 10 (the highest priority a dealer can set), and you are first in line according to order timestamp, AND Ford has the available components to produce your vehicle, you will be selected for scheduling. If not, Ford will move to the next priority/timestamp until it CAN find an order at your dealer that it can schedule. Things to note according when it comes to priority:

• All Ford overrides (priority codes 1-9) are prioritized ahead of other orders. Dealers cannot set priority codes 1-9.
• All retail orders (priority codes 10-19) are prioritized ahead of stock orders
• Stock orders (priority codes 20-80) are prioritized last
• Priority code 99 is the "do no build" code.

If for whatever reason the scheduler does not use all of the allocations, those allocations are typically rolled over to the following month.

Occasionally Ford will do "special scheduling". During these scheduling weeks, Ford will specifically pick out certain orders/configurations to built. This past week, for example, Ford had special scheduling for the Base trims, and as a result we saw a LOT of Base Broncos scheduled.

---

To answer the general question of your post. Allocations has NOTHING to do with whether Ford actually has the components to build all of a particular dealer's orders. It is simply an estimate of how many Broncos they can build that production year. And if the components to build a particular order aren't there, Ford is going to move along to the next order.

 

[Maximus3311]

OKAY...

Every model year dealers are provided an allocation estimate for the the entire production year. They keyword in that statement is ESTIMATE. These estimates are consider confidential information and dealers are not supposed to share those estimates with the wider public, as it could impact share price and cause all kinds of SEC nonsense. The estimate is given to dealers so they know roughly how many vehicles they can sell during a particular model year, which allows them to sure they don't OVER sell. If they over sell, customer orders may get bumped to the next model year, which leads to unhappy customers. Many dealers won't even take orders at all without those estimates, and I believe dealers have started receiving their estimates for the Bronco the past few weeks (or at least, my dealer did). Those estimates aren't perfect. For example... the 2021MY estimates that were provided to dealers were wildly inaccurate because a gigantic supply chain crisis hit the world shortly after 2021MY production began.

The "actual" estimates are provided to dealers on a monthly-ish basis. The allocation numbers they get is based on market basket analysis. The exact formula is complicated, especially for a new vehicle. So to avoid going into college-level economics, it generally boils down to previous vehicle sales. The better your vehicle sales have been, the more allocation you get.

After a dealer receives monthly allocations, Ford's scheduling system will start going down the list to determine which orders to pull for scheduling. As it begins to identify those orders, it will label them as "Previewing". There is a priority list:

1. Order Priority Code (or reservation timestamp, in the case of the Bronco)
2. Order Timestamp
3. Available commodities and/or manufacturing capacity

The scheduling system will continue to cycle through the order list until it has fulfilled all of the allocations. If, for example, you order is Priority Code 10 (the highest priority a dealer can set), and you are first in line according to order timestamp, AND Ford has the available components to produce your vehicle, you will be selected for scheduling. If not, Ford will move to the next priority/timestamp until it CAN find an order at your dealer that it can schedule. Things to note according when it comes to priority:

• All Ford overrides (priority codes 1-9) are prioritized ahead of other orders. Dealers cannot set priority codes 1-9.
• All retail orders (priority codes 10-19) are prioritized ahead of stock orders
• Stock orders (priority codes 20-80) are prioritized last
• Priority code 99 is the "do no build" code.

If for whatever reason the scheduler does not use all of the allocations, those allocations are typically rolled over to the following month.

Occasionally Ford will do "special scheduling". During these scheduling weeks, Ford will specifically pick out certain orders/configurations to built. This past week, for example, Ford had special scheduling for the Base trims, and as a result we saw a LOT of Base Broncos scheduled.

---

To answer the general question of your post. Allocations has NOTHING to do with whether Ford actually has the components to build all of a particular dealer's orders. It is simply an estimate of how many Broncos they can build that production year. And if the components to build a particular order aren't there, Ford is going to move along to the next order.

Thank you for the in-depth explanation - that makes a lot of sense. Guess it was a good decision not to stick the sasquatch package back on. Even though what you told me isn't really what I wanted to hear (i.e. no guarantees) I'm just going to stick with the MIC top. I figure that my build chance is at least better with 1/3 of the constrained items vs the previous 3/3 I had.

Fingers crossed...

 

[HBTFD]

The allocation formula works as follows

 

[HoosierDaddy]

even though tow isn't currently listed as a major constraint

Just curious.
What are the current OFFICIAL major constraints?
Beside the obvious MIC, Lux, Squatch and WT?


Back when mine was built, mod bumper, brush guard, Lux?, MIC, tow, ppf .... I think there were six or seven options listed.

 

[Maximus3311]

My dealer told me (take a shot!) that Tow was still considered something of a constraint. Who knows...but what I figure is if there's something I really don't need and threw it on the build as an "eh I guess would be ok to have" I'm yanking it off. The fewer things I have listed the better.

 

[Broncowski22]

My favorite is seeing basically the exact same build I ordered, including the tow package I removed and the hard top I'm not compromising on, in the inventory of a dealer less than 30 miles away from the one I ordered from (And of course it's sold immediately). Ford is really good at logistics.

Sponsored