What forum members are ordering (based on build week data)

[RobBob22]

Curiosity got the best of me while looking at the data from the Consolidated Build Week Sheet maintained by @66Fan and looking at all that information I wanted a narrowed down view of how different models were being spec'd out. I don't think anything below is too surprising or unexpected, but some results are at least interesting.

Some highlights:

• 33% (1/3) of all 2 door orders go with a manual transmission (not shown above)
• 7% of 4 door orders go with the manual transmission (not shown above)
• 67-80% of BB, BL, WT, OBX, and BD orders go are 4 door, however...
• only 31% of base models are built as 4 door models
• 0% of BASE Bronco orders reported here selected the 4 door with a manual *Edit: and for good reason, it's not even offered!
• 39% of Base model Broncos are manual, other models with the manual option top out around 17-20%

I think the most interesting result is the switch in base model preference towards two door vs. four door on all other models. This probably speaks to 1) ordering the cheapest vehicle possible 2) wanting more creature comforts in larger "family" vehicles that come on the high trims levels.

Obviously, this data is probably skewed to the population of folks interested in discussing their vehicles on online forums, but interesting nonetheless. Also, I pulled the data last night, so this only represent orders entered from early August to September 5th.

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[Blackcat]

Not being a smart ass, but isn’t the 0% 4 door base due to it not being offered?

 

[RobBob22]

Not being a smart ass, but isn’t the 0% 4 door base due to it not being offered?

No, you're right! I didn't even notice or check that they didn't offer manual transmission on the 4 door base model, good catch!

 

[Blackcat]

No, you're right! I didn't even notice or check that they didn't offer manual transmission on the 4 door base model, good catch!

I would’ve ordered one had it been available.

 

[Tricky Dick]

The manual take rate is still crazy high compared to the rest of the industry. to everyone that's keeping the manual alive.

 

[RobBob22]

Same, manual is very unpopular on the 4 door in general, and I would expect even less popular on a 4 door base if it was offered. Assuming Ford made that decision based on how few base broncos in 4 door are ordered. Simplifying manufacturing.

Going up to a BB would be a reasonable compromise I think.

 

[Funkdoobiest]

Interesting to me is BB is only at 3% take for customer orders yet that's what you see most on dealer lots when you find them.

 

[Blackcat]

I think Ford omitted the 4 door base MT so you’d be forced into a higher trim.

 

[RobBob22]

The manual take rate is still crazy high compared to the rest of the industry. to everyone that's keeping the manual alive.

YES!

Interestingly enough, in the models that do offer 4dr/2dr and the manual it seems pretty evenly split. A manual BL,BB,BD is just as likely to be a 4dr as a 2dr. I would have expected the larger engine to skew this away from the 4 door, but you can't really tell that here.

 

[RobBob22]

Interesting to me is BB is only at 3% take for customer orders yet that's what you see most on dealer lots when you find them.

I think that may influence why so many BB are on dealer lots, fewer retail orders of that model leave more resale available.

 

[AZ_Liberty]

Data is skewed due to to manual on the 4-door Base.

I might have considered a 4-door Base to get my Bronco faster. There was no way I was going to pay another 5-7 grand to get a 4-door manual Big Bend with a sqishy top I didn't want instead of my 2-Door Base.

No Stick-Shift, no Bronco. Not even in the running with the auto-matic.

 

[Potatomafia]

The manual take rate is still crazy high compared to the rest of the industry. to everyone that's keeping the manual alive.

 

[66Fan]

I like!
Well done. The whole 4 door base manual thing just shows the level of confidence in the data.
If they don't make it, it should likely be 0.
Data on the Consolidated sheet will now contain up to 24 October week as it is entered. That sheet is real time replicated with all of the underlying weekly sheets.

A long way back - like on the 22 August sheet - there was a pivot table tab that had some of this broken out in sheer numbers (for the week), but didn't relate it to overall numbers and take rates/percentages.

I was thinking of doing some kind of Geo map with the US rail vs. convoy to show delivery type boundaries, but Google's geo offerings don't make it simple. I could do it with Excel in about two minutes.

 

[66Fan]

Data is skewed due to to manual on the 4-door Base.

I might have considered a 4-door Base to get my Bronco faster. There was no way I was going to pay another 5-7 grand to get a 4-door manual Big Bend with a sqishy top I didn't want instead of my 2-Door Base.

No Stick-Shift, no Bronco. Not even in the running with the auto-matic.

Correct me if I'm wrong @RobBob22, but the data shouldn't be skewed due to the 4Dr. Base Manual thing.
If there's nothing related to that model in the numerator or denominator, it can't skew the numbers. The only way it could skew is if it were hard coded to exist as a model and then the total numbers were to be divided by that errant assumption. I thinks here, the model is simply a text category representation with all of the related numbers being zero, since it doesn't exist.
This is done using actual counts and dividing by actual totals, correct?

 

[RobBob22]

I thought about geofencing to see what colors, transmission, door count went where more. A bit above my pay grade on excel skills though

Correct me if I'm wrong @RobBob22, but the data shouldn't be skewed due to the 4Dr. Base Manual thing.
If there's nothing related to that model in the numerator or denominator, it can't skew the numbers. The only way it could skew is if it were hard coded to exist as a model and then the total numbers were to be divided by that errant assumption. I thinks here, the model is simply a text category representation with all of the related numbers being zero, since it doesn't exist.
This is done using actual counts and dividing by actual totals, correct?

Correct, the right most column is total count/all broncos and the center column is total count/model.

I also wouldn’t say it’s skewed just by the fact that a 4 door base manual was not offered, its the same reason you don’t see any manual WT or OBX, they weren’t offered. That’s not to say people would not have bought them if they could. However I can see why Ford made the decision to not offer a 4 door manual bronco.

Here’s an assumption: If 250,000 Broncos we’re sold 2021-2022 only 13% would be a base, of those 31% would have the 4 door, and if manual was an option 8-10% would have the manual based on other models. Only 800-1000 manual 4 door base broncos would be ordered.

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