Ford Changes How Broncos are Allocated - But Doesn’t Want You to Know

[shieldsy]

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[ZackDanger]

It's in the memo. Go back and re-read, and then concede. In the memo it's Point number 2, 3rd bullet.

Point #2, 3rd Bullet is as follows:

“As a reminder, converted reservations as of January 31, 2021 will account for 50% of the dealer allocation formula, with the remaining 50% weight on competitive registrations and your Ford retail sales as a percentage of the nation.“

Let’s break this down.

”50% of the dealer allocation formula” means that your total number of reservations accounts for half of the weight in the formula. The remaining half is a based on competing registrations and your retail sales percentage. There is nothing in this description that tells us anything about what the actual formula is.

Now, I’m not mathematician, but for all we know the formula is:

Total FY21 Allocations = Converted reservations as of January 31, 2020 + (0.5 x (Total Competitive Registrations x Retail Sales %))

So if I have 100 converted reservations, and there are 2000 competitive registrations in my area, but I only sell 1% of all Fords nationally, then the formula looks like this:

100 + (0.5 x (2000 x 0.01))

Meaning I will actually receive 110 Broncos.... which leaves me 10 extra Broncos for the lot...

Do you see what I mean?

Anyone who claims they can read Point #2, 3rd Bullet, and come to a conclusion about how the formula works, is making some assumptions, or has information not included in the memo.

 

[Pl8to]

I put 100 dollars down, and Ford said I would get my order in approximately the order of my reservation. That hasn't changed. Even if they change the formula 10 times that statement will most likely hold true.

People confuse transparency with thinking they will be told every detail.

 

[toystwo]

Pretty much, and with some assumptions made that aren't necessarily the case.

Which are?

The assumption that this was done at large dealer behest comment was preceded by “presumably“.

Maybe that “residency“ isn’t really in reference to the new allocation scheme? OK, then Ford revised their Allocation Q&A and didn’t mention they just made a huge change to how allocation works.

 

[toystwo]

Anyone who claims they can read Point #2, 3rd Bullet, and come to a conclusion about how the formula works, is making some assumptions, or has information not included in the memo.

Anyone that reads that formula and doesn’t realize a small town dealer with a huge # of reservations isn’t going to be allocated enough Broncos doesn’t understand the formula.

As has already been stated, how it effects most dealers is a big Unkown. We do know that what was once simple (rough reservation order) is anything but now.

 

[2Jeeps&PatriotX1]

or a Ford dealership that also sells Jeeps?

 

[ZackDanger]

Anyone that reads that formula and doesn’t realize a small town dealer with a huge # of reservations isn’t going to be allocated enough Broncos doesn’t understand the formula.

As has already been stated, how it effects most dealers is a big Unkown. We do know that what was once simple (rough reservation order) is anything but now.

What is the formula? The memo doesn’t say what it is.

 

[lobbs611]

I’m confused about this thread...

...Did the OP just take all the discussions and threads we’ve been having and then make a new thread with an alarmist spin?

Pretty much, yeah

 

[Gamecock]

Point #2, 3rd Bullet is as follows:

“As a reminder, converted reservations as of January 31, 2021 will account for 50% of the dealer allocation formula, with the remaining 50% weight on competitive registrations and your Ford retail sales as a percentage of the nation.“

Let’s break this down.

”50% of the dealer allocation formula” means that your total number of reservations accounts for half of the in the formula. The remaining half is a based on competing registrations and your retail sales percentage. There is nothing in this description that tells us anything about what the actual formula is.

Now, I’m not mathematician, but for all we know the formula is:

Total FY21 Allocations = Converted reservations as of January 31, 2020 + (0.5 x (Total Competitive Registrations x Retail Sales %))

So if I have 100 converted reservations, and there are 2000 competitive registrations in my area, but I only sell 1% of all Fords nationally, then the formula looks like this:

100 + (0.5 x (2000 x 0.01))

Meaning I will actually receive 110 Broncos.... which leaves me 10 extra Broncos for the lot...

Do you see what I mean?

Anyone who claims they can read Point #2, 3rd Bullet, and come to a conclusion about how the formula works, is making some assumptions, or has information not included in the memo.

Okay dude, there are more reservations that will be converted to orders than there will be MY2021 Broncos. Here is an example that someone else did, which may help you understand:

• 50% of reservations will be fulfilled based on a calculation using the dealers number of bronco reservations prior to Sep 18th that are converted to orders
• 25% of reservations will be fulfilled based on a calculation using the dealers sales volume
• 25% of the reservations will be fulfilled based on a calculation using the sales of jeeps/4Runners in market

Example
Dealer A is high volume and in huge jeep market
Dealer B is a low volume dealer

Dealer A gets 100 reservations (converted to orders) and Dealer B also gets 100. They are thus the same in that part of the formula, and are allocated 50 each for that. The rest is not the same:

- Dealer A may be able to get 50 + 22 + 20 , ie be allocated 92 broncos from the production line
- Dealer B may be able to get 50 + 2 + 1 , ie be allocated 53 broncos from the production line

Dealer A got the extra 22+20 because they did well in part 2 and 3 of the formula. Dealer B only got 3 extra, because they are rural and didn't score well at all in that part of the formula. Get it now?

Now Dealer A fills 92% of their orders; Dealer B fills 53%.

 

[Nickp]

Anyone that reads that formula and doesn’t realize a small town dealer with a huge # of reservations isn’t going to be allocated enough Broncos doesn’t understand the formula.

As has already been stated, how it effects most dealers is a big Unkown. We do know that what was once simple (rough reservation order) is anything but now.

This is my understanding as well. Granger will have 50% of its Broncos no problem, but those other 50% are going to be tough to get since I assume Iowa is a pretty low 4Runner/Jeep market.

 

[toystwo]

I put 100 dollars down, and Ford said I would get my order in approximately the order of my reservation. That hasn't changed.

Unfortunately You’re wrong. It has absolutely changed.

 

[lobbs611]

People need to chill out...if the person reserved before you, can’t decide what options to get and submits after you, should they still get their order before you? Double sided sword however you look at it...only thing you need to know is that you’re getting yours before someone else, so who cares..??? ?‍

They are taking all the orders once the window closes January 31st and arranging them as closely as possible, taking logistics and supply into the equation, to the reservation time stamp. It doesn't matter if you place your order the first day in December the banks are open or the last day of January.

 

[Pl8to]

Unfortunately You’re wrong. It has absolutely changed.

I don't think I was ever given a date. Approximate means approximate

 

[ColoradoGuy]

Been away for a couple of hours and wow....

Catching up real quick but "residency" is referring to where the dealer is located, not the buyer, right?

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