When Will I Get My BRONCO?? - Granger Ford

[Granger Ford]

What? Did @Zach@Granger say some reservation holders have moved away from Granger? What type of heresy is this? Does their Dad own a dealership?

and some came back there is that 2 dealership change thing in action...

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[colintrax]

You need to add some zeros on the end of it before putting it “to work” is going to make any sort of difference. What’s the current risk free rate? T-bills have done negative yield. Long term rates were under 1%.

P/E ratios are in the 30s and 40s. So if I buy now, at constant ratios my grade school kids can make a profit when they’re in their 50s?

its worthless to invest unless you have some good connections and access to the good deals. Most of us don’t. I don’t get to get in on the ground floor for the kind of pump and dumps that are driving the current stock market.

So buying a car with cash makes some more sense. Maybe I can get some great financing terms?

Im up 22% in a month and don't have any special connections or knowledge. Just an idiot with a Robinhood account. Everyone should be investing if they have throwaway cash on hand. Even if that's just putting it in a CD or buying funds.

 

[Broncoak]

All reservation times have been converted to UTC (formerly known as GMT) so the system can account for all the different time zones. To be clear, the reservation banks opened up at 00:00 UTC or 20:00 UTC-4:00 also known as 8:00pm EDT.

Yeah, I have no idea what time it was on the 14th in AK, but I'm guessing it was after 8:00 pm, so it was after midnight on the 15th, I think. No big deal; I'm just hoping whatever dealer I finally decide on doesn't put me beyond MY21.

Not the end of the world, but it would be nice to drive my build sometime this year.

 

[AzScorpion]

Thanks for the update Zach. As long as I get mine before the DMV takes my license I'll be fine.

I'd worry more about your wife taking the checkbook away from you. ?

 

[BroncoJay]

From Iowa or lives in Iowa? I grew up in Des Moines but live in Florida...

I vote for first dibs who’s committed enough to get the word “Iowa” tattooed on their body!

I’m sleeved and legged out with tatttos so there that but I have nothing that says Iowa other than by cornfed John Deere tat...

 

[Granger Ford]

I did not say that I would share it publicly...

 

[jaspercasidino]

I can see them sharing their allocation numbers with their reservation customers only and only after conversions are completed so we have a better idea of when to expect our Bronco, but asking them to share their allocation on a public site - when thousands of other Ford dealerships aren't sharing anything at all (I mean, c'mon, most of the other dealerships aren't even telling customers what they're going to charge for these things) - is kind of ridiculous.

That would only open the floodgates on criticism from the vultures, high hopes from customers, and speculation from people who have nothing better to do. People will assume they're a MY21 and then they'll be pissed off if the numbers change and they're a MY22; or they'll be pissed off if they think they're a MY22 with Granger, switch to a different dealership, then the numbers change and they could have been a MY21 if they had stayed with Granger. And guess who they'll blame? Hint: It's not the anonymous guy on the forum who demanded those numbers, that's for sure.

Really, providing that much information to the masses doesn't do anybody any good because it's all speculation until orders are placed, not just with Granger, but with all dealerships. And even then, we have the whole commodities thing.

Thank you Sue for the support, you are correct our customers are the only ones that we will share where they stand with us in allocation, Ford has us playing by the same rules as they are and our success on the forum and Zach's business sense have made all of this possible...

That being said I do not have enough allocation for all of our reservation holders this year nor do any others...

Stephen's Auto Center announced their initial allocations and I think that is great. I appreciate what these dealers have done and they have gone above and beyond the rest by making themselves available on the forum. If they don't want to share their initial or final allocation numbers or anything else for that matter, that is fine with me. This being a public site, I feel that I can ask questions of these dealers that put themselves out there. The sword cuts both ways.

I am mainly interested in the number to see how that compares to the 1000+ reservations that Granger has implied they have.

Signed,

-Some anonymous, speculating guy a couple time zones over with some time on his hands

edit: I don't think that Granger is trying to be sneaky or hoodwink people. I'm thinking with the "math" that has been shared that overall Bronco deliveries are lower than many anticipated and this might be the best way to manage customer expectations. With all that said, I'll leave the subject alone and not further bothering anyone about it.

 

[Granger Ford]

You are fine ?

 

[Used2jeep]

Zach explained that it was Granger's policy to not modify priority of placed orders (aka reservation number/timestamp). In fairness to their current customers they choose not to expose their estimated allocation because disclosing that could allow other early reservists, who are not in the top 30% at their current dealer, to switch to Granger and bump someone out of the top 30%.

I DO NOT work for Granger. I DO NOT know if this statement is 100% true. It is just a surmising of what MIGHT be going through their business minded heads.

Like/dislike/agree/disagree - it's an idea of why they might be doing what they are doing.

 

[Booback]

First, I want to thank the large contingent of passionate enthusiasts on Bronco6G for their welcoming attitude towards us as a dealership. This reception is humbling and we will continue to do our best to be an asset to the community.

I would be remiss if I did not thank Ford as well. While it is easy to complain on the consumer side of the table. They are bringing to market a SUV that invokes passion from a wide collection of people. This has been accomplished through a set of circumstances that no one could see coming. With Covid-19, and the uncertainty that showed the automotive industry in March/April. The huge supply constraints that have faced all industries with parts backorders and short availability on new car inventory. This has been a challenging time.

But Ford has certainly gotten it right where it counts. The Ford Bronco inspires passion unlike countless examples of nameless mid-size SUVs from other brands. This is a great thing, because if no one cares you aren’t doing your job correctly. I don’t think Ford has received enough credit for this. Selfishly this has been a great opportunity for our store and we are very blessed to be a part of it. While running through the challenges that this opportunity brings can certainly be frustrating at times, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that we’re fortunate to be in this position.

Now for the Number 1 question I have received and I’m sure that is one everyone’s mind is “WHEN WILL I RECEIVE MY (insert date of reservation) BRONCO?

What do we know?

• Ford has announced on multiple occasions that they have over 190,000 reservations. There are also articles cited from July 31st that the Bronco had achieved 150,000 reservations at that point. From our data we have (pre-October special) this is the rough reservations we have by date prior to our October special.

I would think our data is a good sample of the rest of the nation. The graph above shows percentages based upon dates in July. So as you can see we received roughly 14% of our reservations on July 13th, 20% on July 14th 10% on July 15th then started to taper down to 6%, 4% then 3%. Others have posted on this in the past with a more extensive data set. But roughly 50% of all reservations were made within the 13th-16th time frame in July from our data set.

• Automotive new has quoted Mark LaNeve at one point stating that, “over 75% of the roughly 165,000 refundable deposits will be converted to sales”
• There will be commodity restrictions on high demand items. Sasquatch, Lux Package, 2.7L V6, among other items will be restrained.
• The production of cars can be a confusing process. We are a dual-franchised store with FCA as our other brand we carry. We ordered 2 Retail order 2500s for customers that are currently in-transit to our store and both in the same estimated arrival date currently. One order was placed on 11-16 the other order was placed on 9-16. The order placed on 11-16 was for an item with more “high demand” and with commodities that should be harder to get than the 9-16 order.
• Some dealers have reported approximately 30% of their reservations as their initial estimated allocation. 190,000 x 30% = 57,000 production units.

What do we do with this information?

• The number 1 impact on total allocation will be the number of reservations converted to orders and the second factor isn’t close. If 75% of reservations convert to orders that equals 142,500 Broncos or over 1 year of production capacity (roughly 15 months estimate). If that drops to 50% that would put production at 95,000 orders or 25% would put production at 47,500.

• Dealer Allocation – Dealer allocation will play a part in overall Bronco ordering. There has been some misinformation about what allocation is and how it works. Allocation is a commitment between Ford and the dealer on how many vehicles the dealer will order and get produced for that dealership. This does impact reservation holders where a dealership will not be able to get a vehicle scheduled without the allocation first. Right now, Ford’s initial allocation is based upon Ford’s best “guess” on how many orders convert. The final number will be announced in April. The conundrum for the customer is that you need to commit to a dealer before finalizing your order which ends March 19th.
• Commodity Restraints – This will absolutely play a big part in the timing of your order. Imagine a scenario with two order placed at exactly the same time on 7/14. One order is a big bend 4 door, the other a Wildtrack 4-Door with leather seating. It could potentially be months difference in delivery timeframe because of the options that someone chooses.
• It is my opinion that Ford is estimating high on the conversion percentage. I can certainly understand why, because they have to plan for that amount of production and I would estimate high if I was in that position. I see the fulfillment rate coming in close to 40-50% when all is said and done. That would put total reservations converted around 85,000 at 45% and would allow approximately 75% of the total allocation to be scheduled as 21 MY Broncos. Regardless of where you stand, I hope to have provided enough information to provide you the ability to make the determination and decision for yourself based upon the data.

In conclusion, the uniqueness and customization of the Bronco is one of the reasons that customers are drawn to the car. You can make it uniquely yours and like no other Bronco on the road. Just as unique is the motivation that everyone has to purchase their Bronco. Some want to be the soonest. Some want to make sure they get exactly what they want without compromise regardless of timing. Yet others want to find the best deal out there. This is a good talking point with your dealership of choice and I’m sure they will work with you to make sure you are taken care of properly.



For our customers we really appreciate you choosing us. As we have always been we want to be as customer centered as possible. It would be foolish of me to guarantee anything that I cannot stand behind. We will commit to working with every customer based upon their motivation to purchase as best as possible. We are excited for the ride and thank you for the opportunity to earn your business!

-Zach

This is super helpful. Thanks for posting.
It makes is clear it’s a huge guessing game too as if you order and then find out it’s a ‘22 delivery, you can’t cancel without losing your place in line and you miss out on the late availability options.

I have a 7/18 reservation, but with wildtrack or badlands, squatch and 2.7l and so for the first time ever, I’m left feeling like I should wait on order conversion given we were told we could defer wildtrack orders because of the roof delays.

 

[timhood]

I'm not really sure what the point of the numbers is. Does it make a difference if they were allocated 50 and have 100 reservations or 500 and have 1,000 reservations? It's really the percentage that matters. And more so, how far down the reservation timeline their allocation goes compared to where someone's timestamp is. And even with all of that, it hardly matters at this point until reservations become orders and Ford does its final allocation calculations.

 

[attworth]

From Iowa or lives in Iowa? I grew up in Des Moines but live in Florida...

I vote for first dibs who’s committed enough to get the word “Iowa” tattooed on their body!

If this is the case I’ll go get a new tat tomorrow.

 

[lobbs611]

Everyone from Iowa gets 1st dibs....
?

Hold up. I was born and raised in Iowa. So, I am from there originally...I need to see the fine print here...

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