Coronovirus discussions

[kdm_42089]

WAPO lead story:
In hard-hit areas, testing restricted to health care workers, hospital patients
As cases spike, health officials are saying the battle to contain the virus is lost and are hunkering down for an onslaught, directing scarce resources where they are needed most to save lives.

I get what they're trying to do, but still, if you're showing symptoms and could need treatment, you should probably be tested to know for sure, instead of "staying home to save resources" How would they be able to know who needs to be hospitalized at that point? Seems counter-productive. Just my .02 cents.

Good info to have/know though. Thanks for sharing!

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[securitysix]

The high death rate is due to us still being in fairly early stages, and that the first outbreaks were retirement homes. Not overly concerned on the current fatality rate, expect it to start dropping in a week or so.

We're also looking at a low test rate. I know Oklahoma is so short on test kits that we've started to export samples to a lab in Dallas to have them tested.

If we're not at least testing everybody that is symptomatic, our number of cases is going to be skewed to the low side. If our total number of cases is skewed to the low side, our number of recovered cases is also going to be skewed to the low side, which means that our mortality rate is going to be skewed to the high side.

 

[JimmyDean]

We're also looking at a low test rate. I know Oklahoma is so short on test kits that we've started to export samples to a lab in Dallas to have them tested.

If we're not at least testing everybody that is symptomatic, our number of cases is going to be skewed to the low side. If our total number of cases is skewed to the low side, our number of recovered cases is also going to be skewed to the low side, which means that our mortality rate is going to be skewed to the high side.

Here in Louisiana our increases are linear every day, which tells me we’ve reached testing capacity, far below infection rate. Some contacts confirmed we’re over 5 days behind on tests, and the samples are only good for about a week. So.....yeah

 

[Nickp]

Interesting post:


If you're taking the "this is all stupid" approach you should be required to post your assumptions:

- acceptable death toll
- value of a human life
- expected GDP decline
- alternative measures
- number of grandparents/parents over 65 you have alive

 

[Nickp]

Well we’re about to find out. Trump going to open up the country again next week it sounds like pretty much regardless of what he’s told. So either we’re saved or we’re even more fucked than we currently are.

 

[RupertH]

Well we’re about to find out. Trump going to open up the country again next week it sounds like pretty much regardless of what he’s told. So either we’re saved or we’re even more fucked than we currently are.

That's the spirit!

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

So Now NAIAS is cancelled and metro Detroit is becoming a hot spot.... what’s everyone’s timeline???

Reveal, July
In person shows, August
Dealership arrival January Sport, April FSB??

 

[securitysix]

So Now NAIAS is cancelled and metro Detroit is becoming a hot spot.... what’s everyone’s timeline???

Reveal, July
In person shows, August
Dealership arrival January Sport, April FSB??

I hope that's accurate, just because I want more information now.

As much as it would suck for release to be delayed, it doesn't change my personal timeline. I wasn't going to be able to afford to buy at release anyway. I was going to be looking at buying during the 2nd model year at the earliest.

 

[BroncoBuckaroo]

Well we’re about to find out. Trump going to open up the country again next week it sounds like pretty much regardless of what he’s told. So either we’re saved or we’re even more fucked than we currently are.

Why do you think your screwed.? In reality do any of you know where the orginal numbers came from for the total number of infections and deaths?

The WHO (world health Organization) ..a United Nations outfit. Here is how it went down in January ..(don't worry this is of no concern it is spread by animal to human) Then in February (we expect millions to die in the United States) ..wow ..so where did they get their info? From china that said not to worry it's not spreading between humans, when china knew it was and so did the WHO. Now the models that Fauci is using are based upon the WHO numbers that were crazy to begin with..so they went from projecting millions of dead in the USA which is why we closed up the country to hundreds of thousands dead (ok lots less but still country must be closed) to now 60,000 by Aug.

Regular seasonal flu season starts in Nov and ends May 1 (7 months for counting purposes) Coronavirus started in Dec and they are saying 60,000 by August (9 months) a light flu season is 25,000 deaths, average is 45,000 and a bad flu season is 60,000 + deaths. At the rate of declining infected nationwide ..this is Coronavirus is not going to hit 40,000 by Aug..that's remarkable ..on the advice of two doctors Fauci who has been wrong a bunch of times and Dr Birx based on faulty WHO numbers convinced the President to shut down the country .

In addition, numbers of dead are showing 99% of those who died as reported all have some pre-existing conditions, wow nearly the same profile as the regular flu. And now a death rate and infection rate about the same as the regular flu.

The decline in infections and deaths probably no doubt has been affected by social distancing, but so would the regular flu and a whole host of other diseases we have that we don't Social distance for. The major drop though is not social distancing ..going from millions to a projected 60,000 deaths by Aug, its because they have revised the models they are using downwards 6 times in one month.

So ... I would just wait till the week before May 1st, and i am guessing the Fauci models will again get revised downward to around 40,000 deaths.

Germany is reopening and they are smack in the middle of the pandemic (why? Because the numbers were wrong) other countries are now talking about doing the same.

 

[guernsej]

Why do you think your screwed.? In reality do any of you know where the orginal numbers came from for the total number of infections and deaths?

The WHO (world health Organization) ..a United Nations outfit. Here is how it went down in January ..(don't worry this is of no concern it is spread by animal to human) Then in February (we expect millions to die in the United States) ..wow ..so where did they get their info? From china that said not to worry it's not spreading between humans, when china knew it was and so did the WHO. Now the models that Fauci is using are based upon the WHO numbers that were crazy to begin with..so they went from projecting millions of dead in the USA which is why we closed up the country to hundreds of thousands dead (ok lots less but still country must be closed) to now 60,000 by Aug.

Regular seasonal flu season starts in Nov and ends May 1 (7 months for counting purposes) Coronavirus started in Dec and they are saying 60,000 by August (9 months) a light flu season is 25,000 deaths, average is 45,000 and a bad flu season is 60,000 + deaths. At the rate of declining infected nationwide ..this is Coronavirus is not going to hit 40,000 by Aug..that's remarkable ..on the advice of two doctors Fauci who has been wrong a bunch of times and Dr Birx based on faulty WHO numbers convinced the President to shut down the country .

In addition, numbers of dead are showing 99% of those who died as reported all have some pre-existing conditions, wow nearly the same profile as the regular flu. And now a death rate and infection rate about the same as the regular flu.

The decline in infections and deaths probably no doubt has been affected by social distancing, but so would the regular flu and a whole host of other diseases we have that we don't Social distance for. The major drop though is not social distancing ..going from millions to a projected 60,000 deaths by Aug, its because they have revised the models they are using downwards 6 times in one month.

So ... I would just wait till the week before May 1st, and i am guessing the Fauci models will again get revised downward to around 40,000 deaths.

Germany is reopening and they are smack in the middle of the pandemic (why? Because the numbers were wrong) other countries are now talking about doing the same.

You don't know what you're talking about. Not everything you're saying is wrong, but most if it is and your conclusions are wildly off base.

 

[Jook13]

The way everything shut down you would think we are dealing with a disease that kills half of it's victims, not 1-3% (of which most have pre existing conditions). It doesn't add up.

 

[OX1]

You don't know what you're talking about. Not everything you're saying is wrong, but most if it is and your conclusions are wildly off base.

Then post up what is wrong and the un-disputable facts of why.
The reality is, there is a lot of information not being divulged, that someone
in charge of even closing the country down in the first place, absolutely should
have known. And if they didn't have it up front and were just being cautious,
they better tell me what they didn't know, how they are working to get it, and how
long we will be all closed up due to "just being cautious".

There are 1000's of real consequences that are happening right now that need to
be weighed against real data.

 

[frinesi2]

Okay listen up you numbskulls because I'm only going to weigh in on this once.

For every person who dies from COVID-19, there are ~10 people who need to go to the hospital, some for 2 - 3 weeks and some will require intensive care.

It spreads far more rapidly than any other disease we've had to deal with.

This causes a large influx of patients, in ADDITION to patients with every other reason for being the hospital (flu, car crashes, falling off ladders, heart disease, etc.)

The healthcare system cannot handle this influx of patients.

Patients who cannot receive care have a much higher chance of dying. The country is shut down to slow the rate of hospitalizations to allow the healthcare system to keep people from dying.

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