Future production levels

[GPPBronco]

My assumption is that Bronco Raptor production will be included in Bronco production figures. I doubt that they will sell that many Bronco Raptors. It's much more expensive.

...and ugly. We would be remiss to let the Raptor reference pass without pointing out those fender flares.

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[Drex]

Your basic assumptions do not take into account material availability and production capacity, you assume they are not critical bottlenecks and can scale 1:1 without limit. This is not true in any manufacturing reality.

I like the math exercise and the math checks out, but as a practical prediction tool, your stuff is not helpful

 

[MnLakeBum]

They’re making expansions for the new Ranger

That is good news. I wonder how much and how quickly they can increase production. I'd love to see them produce 15,000+ Broncos each month and IMO at those levels we will have supply exceedeing demand for another 12+ months. There are so many first week reservations not scheduled yet, including mine.

 

[DirtyMike&TheBoyz]

i like the scientific approach you took here. Only 2 things I notice. Based on the R squared value not being high and overall ceiling for production, I dont see Ford producing more than 17,000 per month max. hope i'm wrong!

 

[InTheShift]

I'm a bit of a math geek. While I wait for my Badlands order to be built, I played with Ford's Bronco production numbers. It looks like real production got going by June 2021. I took the monthly figures from June 2021 through March 2022 and ran an exponential LSF extrapolation. March 2022 production was 14,953 for a total production of 90,915. Here's how it projects:

Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22
14570.68	16184.65	17916.57	19901.15	22105.56	24471.08	27181.69	30090.4	33423.46
105,486	121,670	139,587	159,488	181,594	206,065	233,246	263,337	296,760

This is NOT science. It is a "back of the envelope" SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess). Still, it projects that Bronco production will be over 24,000 per month by September and total production will pass 200,000 Broncos by the end of September.

I can dream, can't I? After all, I have to keep myself amused while I'm waiting for my Bronco.

This is my jam. Nothing quite passes the time like a good square fit model

 

[InTheShift]

Your basic assumptions do not take into account material availability and production capacity, you assume they are not critical bottlenecks and can scale 1:1 without limit. This is not true in any manufacturing reality.

I like the math exercise and the math checks out, but as a practical prediction tool, your stuff is not helpful

That’s why its a swag. Just a fun, directionally ok-ish approach to make you feel like progress is, well….progressing.

 

[CMillBronco]

...and ugly. We would be remiss to let the Raptor reference pass without pointing out those fender flares.

I agree 100%, how could anybody look past those??

 

[Snacktime]

New ranger will straight up compete with the Bronco for production. New Ranger Raptor will also bump Bronco production as I see it using similar parts.

 

[Bruzer22]

I would expect April numbers to dip based on what's happening in April build weeks.

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