Future production levels

[Saw4Fire]

I'm a bit of a math geek. While I wait for my Badlands order to be built, I played with Ford's Bronco production numbers. It looks like real production got going by June 2021. I took the monthly figures from June 2021 through March 2022 and ran an exponential LSF extrapolation. March 2022 production was 14,953 for a total production of 90,915. Here's how it projects:

Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22
14570.68	16184.65	17916.57	19901.15	22105.56	24471.08	27181.69	30090.4	33423.46
105,486	121,670	139,587	159,488	181,594	206,065	233,246	263,337	296,760

This is NOT science. It is a "back of the envelope" SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess). Still, it projects that Bronco production will be over 24,000 per month by September and total production will pass 200,000 Broncos by the end of September.

I can dream, can't I? After all, I have to keep myself amused while I'm waiting for my Bronco.

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[Untrained Horse]

I’m curious how the Raptor production will mess all of this up.

 

[Saw4Fire]

Every month's production:

Production since June 2021, along with the LSF exponential trendline:

Extending that red line is where the projection comes from.

 

[Saw4Fire]

I’m curious how the Raptor production will mess all of this up.

My assumption is that Bronco Raptor production will be included in Bronco production figures. I doubt that they will sell that many Bronco Raptors. It's much more expensive.

 

[JHawk]

I'm a bit of a math geek. While I wait for my Badlands order to built, I played with Ford's Bronco production numbers. It looks like real production got going by June 2021. I took the monthly figures from June 2021 through March 2022 and ran an exponential LSF extrapolation. March 2022 production was 14,953 for a total production of 90,915. Here's how it projects:

Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22
14570.68	16184.65	17916.57	19901.15	22105.56	24471.08	27181.69	30090.4	33423.46
105,486	121,670	139,587	159,488	181,594	206,065	233,246	263,337	296,760

This is NOT science. It is a "back of the envelope" SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess). Still, it projects that Bronco production will be over 24,000 per month by September and total production will pass 200,000 Broncos by the end of September.

I can dream, can't I? After all, I have to keep myself amused while I'm waiting for my Bronco.

I like how you think because I want to get my order scheduled but I think that the curve has to flatten out and stabilize at some point. The question is where does the curve flatten.
I am surprised and happy that the numbers are as high as they are.

 

[DougP.]

I like how you think because I want to get my order scheduled but I think that the curve has to flatten out and stabilize at some point. The question is where does the curve flatten.
I am surprised and happy that the numbers are as high as they are.

just give it two weeks....

 

[Razorbak86]

I'm a bit of a math geek. While I wait for my Badlands order to built, I played with Ford's Bronco production numbers. It looks like real production got going by June 2021. I took the monthly figures from June 2021 through March 2022 and ran an exponential LSF extrapolation. March 2022 production was 14,953 for a total production of 90,915. Here's how it projects:

Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22
14570.68	16184.65	17916.57	19901.15	22105.56	24471.08	27181.69	30090.4	33423.46
105,486	121,670	139,587	159,488	181,594	206,065	233,246	263,337	296,760

This is NOT science. It is a "back of the envelope" SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess). Still, it projects that Bronco production will be over 24,000 per month by September and total production will pass 200,000 Broncos by the end of September.

I can dream, can't I? After all, I have to keep myself amused while I'm waiting for my Bronco.

“I love your enthusiasm and your math skills, but the plant’s capacity is currently 200,000 vehicles per year, and that includes both Broncos and Rangers. There is no feasible way to produce the number of Broncos you are projecting without a major capacity expansion project. So for those reasons, I’m out.”
— Shark Razorbak

 

[Nateandapril]

The only variables I can think of to throw a wrench into the SWAG is part contstraints obviously, but also what is peak production and taking any consideration in for intentional production throttling

 

[Nateandapril]

Another thought worth mentioning: while increased production is good for those of us who want our builds completed so we can have our rig, increased production is gonna spell financial hardship for the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) crowd. When the market has a sufficient amount of Broncos and those folks who paid 10 and 20k over MSRP are now stuck with a rig that is worth about 60% of what they initially paid for it, there is going to be an over abundance of rigs out there in the wild.

 

[Deleted member 32220]

I'm a bit of a math geek. While I wait for my Badlands order to be built, I played with Ford's Bronco production numbers. It looks like real production got going by June 2021. I took the monthly figures from June 2021 through March 2022 and ran an exponential LSF extrapolation. March 2022 production was 14,953 for a total production of 90,915. Here's how it projects:

Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22
14570.68	16184.65	17916.57	19901.15	22105.56	24471.08	27181.69	30090.4	33423.46
105,486	121,670	139,587	159,488	181,594	206,065	233,246	263,337	296,760

This is NOT science. It is a "back of the envelope" SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess). Still, it projects that Bronco production will be over 24,000 per month by September and total production will pass 200,000 Broncos by the end of September.

I can dream, can't I? After all, I have to keep myself amused while I'm waiting for my Bronco.

I think you have just seen the best production numbers for bronco in march. At 15000 units that puts them at 130k annually. That’s what wrangler numbers have been since 2018. With the ranger transitioning to the new MY’ 23 I’ll bet most of that line was broncos last month. Once the backlog is filled and new ranger comes on-line………. Well like I said in the beginning, I think you have just seen broncos best monthly production numbers.

 

[dingle87]

I think you have just seen the best production numbers for bronco in march. At 15000 units that puts them at 130k annually. That’s what wrqngler numbers have been since 2018. With the ranger transitioning to the new MY’ 23 I’ll bet most of that line was broncos last month. Once the backlog is filled and new ranger comes on-line………. Well like I said in the beginning, I think you have just seen broncos best monthly production numbers.

Agreed. 10k-12k/month clears out the reservation backlog by the end of the 2023MY if that’s what Ford wants to do. That’s assuming all reservations are converted to orders and those buyers still want a Bronco. I don’t think that’s going to be the case, so the actual reservation number is less and can be fulfilled with a couple decent years of production.

 

[Nateandapril]

I think you have just seen the best production numbers for bronco in march. At 15000 units that puts them at 130k annually. That’s what wrqngler numbers have been since 2018. With the ranger transitioning to the new MY’ 23 I’ll bet most of that line was broncos last month. Once the backlog is filled and new ranger comes on-line………. Well like I said in the beginning, I think you have just seen broncos best monthly production numbers.

I thought the same thing.

 

[drew707]

I’m curious how the Raptor production will mess all of this up.

Shouldn't really affect it. I believe the target total for Raptors is still around 7,500.

Weekly they’re shooting for around 4,200 Broncos averaged and 420 Raptors also averaged. There will be pauses through this year for Raptor specific production

 

[MnLakeBum]

I’ve read that max production capacity at MAP(no supply issues) is somewhere in that 4,500 -5,300 vehicles per week. They will start making new Rangers in May so that capacity is split between the Bronco and Ranger. In the past about 85-100k Rangers were sold each year so I’m guessing they can’t make more than about 125k Broncos each year without expanding the plant. Those are best case numbers but supply constraints will throttle that for at least the next 6-12 months. My guess is that those like me with first week reservations with MIC tops might not see there Broncos until the end of 2022. Predicting demand out for another 1-2 years is difficult.

 

[drew707]

I’ve read that max production capacity at MAP(no supply issues) is somewhere in that 4,500 -5,300 vehicles per week. They will start making new Rangers in May so that capacity is split between the Bronco and Ranger. In the past about 85-100k Rangers were sold each year so I’m guessing they can’t make more than about 125k Broncos each year without expanding the plant. Those are best case numbers but supply constraints will throttle that for at least the next 6-12 months. My guess is that those like me with first week reservations with MIC tops might not see there Broncos until the end of 2022. Predicting demand out for another 1-2 years is difficult.

They’re making expansions for the new Ranger

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