Michigan Assembly Plant Bronco Production Rate?

[Aggie2000]

If we assume there are no material or labor constraints, what would be a normal production month for the MAP? It looks like in August they produced nearly 20K units with almost half of them being Bronco. Is it safe to assume, when we get all of these supply chain and labor issues behind us, that they will be able to pop out 35-50K units a month? Are there also estimates if the split will continue to be 50/50 between Bronco and Ranger or will it scale more to the Bronco?

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[Aggie2000]

Actually per this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Assembly_Plant

" The plant currently has 2.8 million square feet of floor space and a capacity of 5,300 units per week. "

So that assumes roughtly 275.6K total units a year. If half of them are Bronco that is 137,800. Long story short, I don't think I'm getting my Bronco next year. Crap.

 

[Toccoa]

 

[Ksjrb03]

MAP is built out for a max of 1200 units a day. Thats all stars aligned and everything running perfect. It can go a little higher than that great month of August but not much. The real thing that can affect Bronco is the mix of Bronco/Ranger. Bronco can run as high as 75-80%, but thats all up to the bean counters and other forces.

 

[Aggie2000]

MAP is built out for a max of 1200 units a day. Thats all stars aligned and everything running perfect. It can go a little higher than that great month of August but not much. The real thing that can affect Bronco is the mix of Bronco/Ranger. Bronco can run as high as 75-80%, but thats all up to the bean counters and other forces.

If we split the difference between your estimate and the one I provided, that's about 5650 a week, which is 293,800 a year. If they went 75% Bronco, that's 220,350 a year.

Now for reality, if MAP can produce 8K a month for the balance of the year, that gets us to 50K for 2021. If I remember right there were 125K reservations that were converted to orders. Worst case scenario the remaining 75K (assuming all production goes to reservations) would be fulfilled by September.

 

[Ksjrb03]

If we split the difference between your estimate and the one I provided, that's about 5650 a week, which is 293,800 a year. If they went 75% Bronco, that's 220,350 a year.

Now for reality, if MAP can produce 8K a month for the balance of the year, that gets us to 50K for 2021. If I remember right there were 125K reservations that were converted to orders. Worst case scenario the remaining 75K (assuming all production goes to reservations) would be fulfilled by September.

They arent close to 75% Bronco and only about 800-900 units a day right now. Need to wait and see what the future holds but Bronco numbers will be low rest of MY21.

 

[phocion]

Last time I ran the numbers on this, I convinced myself that if they ran full tilt (I think 75% Bronco/Ranger mix) and produced all the reservations before building stock, they could get all of us our Broncos by mid-summer 2022. That's factoring in their normal holiday shutdowns and lower production numbers certain times of year.

They won't go full tilt, because of constraints on tops and chips, if nothing else. And they'll probably mix in more Rangers than 25%, and who knows what their plan for reservations vs stock is. But as a best case scenario it's not impossible.

 

[Aggie2000]

They arent close to 75% Bronco and only about 800-900 units a day right now. Need to wait and see what the future holds but Bronco numbers will be low rest of MY21.

My worst case scenario was they produce at August levels which is 8K a month. That gets you through all the reservations by September of 2022. If production ramps up to 10K/month that gets you to July/August. None of these estimates are assuming 75% mix.

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