Prediction: Ford US Bronco Sales Will Flatline in 2023

[dbattle]

Incredible to think about, but my analysis of Ford's own data indicates that they'll sell somewhere between 109 and 111K Broncos in the U.S. in 2023, compared to 117.1K units last year.

That's as much as 8K fewer units YoY, even though production has pretty much stabilized.

Although commodities remain a problem this isn't a production or availability problem. The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

Take a look at my analysis and let me know what I've missed or misconstrued. Here's the Google Sheet with the data and check out the May 2023 analysis tab to see my crude model.

There may be silver lining for some of the B6G members who have been waiting a long time: If the demand is softening and--as long as commodities are available--perhaps Ford will shift effort toward pre-ordered vehicles and away from the lot stock, Big Bend, mid, 4 dr softies that I believe they've been prioritizing.

My analysis of the May 2023 production and sales figures is over here.

The buyers are there but not with the huge ADM on top of the price increases Ford has made.

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[vrtical]

The only trend I care about is putting more miles on my braptor. There are definitely a couple of driving factors, I would say increased MSRP and interest rates are putting a dent in it specially when you start moving the needle a bunch.

 

[FJ 432]

As one of the first owners of an FJ Cruiser your analogy played out for that vehicle as well (on a much smaller scale). Sales dwindled to nothingness.

I also look at the damage created to their brand and wonder how many Ford Loyalists have been turned off by the issues (e.g. long delays, warranty issues, dealer ADM BS, etc.)

As a Toyota Loyalist the 2 door Bronco converted me on what I felt was a bold move by Ford (making a 2 door when conventional wisdom says it would not sell). I now find myself in need of a new truck and my first choice would be a Ranger Raptor. But do I allow myself to go through the same trail of tears from Ford or do I go back to Toyota seeking the Trail Hunter.

An interesting time for the almighty Ford.

 

[Krimzun]

I didn’t have time to loon over your numbers yet, but what I think is the biggest issue that has driven buyers away. Is simply dealerships charging crazy ADM’s hard to know how many buyers are waiting for that to go away.

 

[Mike Kleen]

It's really hard to establish any trend with the variable model constraints (specifically entry point low end units). A lot of people, myself included, would consider a $35k vehicle vs a $45k vehicle. Also we have no idea what things will look like when a consistent selection of Broncos are actually sitting on lots when people are car shopping. I don't disagree with your prediction it's just hard to know what the coming conditions will be.

 

[Finbox]

“With the fuel prices, etc. you mention above, I suspect a lot of the rich folks that bought the car as a "look at me" toy early on might start to dump them. Good for the enthusiasts here.”

rich folk do not care about fuel prices

 

[Gizmo]

I am one of the rare ones, that does not care about the doors, or roof coming off-just Like a lot of things on the Bronco, but if the model I have on order is not in by the end of the year, The 2024 Tacoma i put a deposit on should arrive, and hopefully will be less stress of waiting out the Bronco.

 

[timhood]

Although commodities remain a problem this isn't a production or availability problem. The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

First, I think your statements contradict themselves. Second, I think commodities are a problem. Ford wouldn't have told people they can't have certain options and packages if that wasn't the case. And those options and packages are very popular. So, even if Ford is producing the Bronco in significant volume, those units may not be what much of the market actually wants to buy. There are only so many customers willing to forego those options. The others are either willing to wait or looking elsewhere.

 

[Superstition]

I'll offer two things to consider here:
1 - the new Ranger is out and I bet Ford is giving priority there on parts for the moment
2 - My BL/SAS/MIC/2.7/LUX went into production on April 11. It wasn't built until May 31! Clearly it was waiting for a part(s). Interestingly enough, it STILL hasn't shipped as of today Jun 8.

Ford is still having fulfillment issues. I don't think it's having demand issues. And Ranger is now adding to the parts issue since so much is common with Bronco.

 

[Broncofly]

to the OP......

 

[KillerPenz]

Maybe when Ford decides to stop raising the MSRP 5-10% every 6 months or so, then sales will pick up again. I got mine back in 2021, and honestly, prices where they are now, I probably would've passed it by. Same build I got for $43k is now pushing $50k. And as much as I love the truck, that extra money isn't worth it, especially how others have already stated interest rates and everything that's gone up last few years.

 

[timbits588]

I'll be interested to see this play out, as I'm sure a lot of others are too. Seeing how the Ranger does and the shared parts come into play has me watching.

 

[PrepVet]

I didn’t have time to loon over your numbers yet, but what I think is the biggest issue that has driven buyers away. Is simply dealerships charging crazy ADM’s hard to know how many buyers are waiting for that to go away.

I would agree, that keeps people outside the door. BUT those of us inside are now being pushed away by the poor quality. I have been a huge Ford guy my entire life, my grandfather worked for FOMOCO for over 50 years so I grew up in them and working on them and started buying them. But now with their stupid starting prices and piss poor quality, not just build quality in terms of fit and finish, but parts quality. Not just mechanical engineering but material types on the interior.

Anyway, my Bronco has been mostly trouble-free. I accept it being the first model year of a brand new car it would have issues, but the infotanment and driver aids has been annoying with their issues. However, knock on wood, Ford has quickly fixed them and it hasn't been an issue again after the big issues.

 

[Wardognal]

Through May 2023 Bronco sales is up 8+% over 2022 , with 50K + sold. ”If” that continues at 10K per month then 2023 sales would 120k+ for 2023. For your analysis to hold water the sales would have to average 8,142 for the next 7 months. That would be a 20% drop over the first 5 months of 2023. I don’t see that happening. It appears that 2023 will be 8% increase over 2022.

 

[peterh]

Big question for me will be whether the aftermarket develops if your flatline prediction comes true - I was hoping to see more good stuff by now, like additional wheels and soft top options!

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