Will dealer allocations push some early reservation holders to 23?

[ZackDanger]

So if your in line at a bakery for blueberry (that’s all they sell) donuts. The bakery has 20 blueberry donuts for the day, there are 30 people in line. They open 10 mins early and let 10 people in from across the street they each buy a blueberry donut. No one got screwed?

Your analogy is not honest to the facts of the situation.

You're at line in a bakery. The bakery has 20 blueberry donuts available that day. There are 60 people in line.

The bakery crew showed up early that morning and were able to to make an additional 3 donuts.

They open the doors and hand out 3 blueberry donuts to people at basically random, and then hand out the remaining 20 starting with the front of the line.

No matter who they picked for the first 3, the first 20 people in line that day all got a donut, and 3 of the people 21-60 also got a donut.

Who go screwed?

Oh, and by the way, tomorrow the remaining 37 people will be back in line, but the bakery will be able to make 50 donuts.

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[Monster1926]

Right, because in that scneario Ford can only produce 10 broncos in MY21.

If you took your 50th reservation to a dealership with 100 broncos worth of allocation, you'd just end up being #500 on their list.


Allocation isn't some slimy sneaky thing Ford did to punish Bronco reservation holders... it's literally just the ratio of MY21 broncos they can produce to the number of total orders.... which equaled about 1/3... meaning only the first 30% (ish) of reservation holders *could* receive an MY21.

If you aren't in your dealership's first 30%, it only means that statistically you aren't in the first 30% nationally either... so you wont be in the first 30% anywhere.

“If you aren't in your dealership's first 30%, it only means that statistically you aren't in the first 30% nationally either... so you wont be in the first 30% anywhere.”

I disagree, say your dealers getting 10 Broncos and your the 10th according to a time stamp of 10pm . Now say my dealers getting 35 and I’m #36 because I have a 9:59 pm time stamp. The first 35 all had earlier timestamps then 9:59. Now I move my res to your dealer and I bump you out of getting built. That’s how it all works with reservation time stamp and allocations.
For the sake of simplicity we all had the exact same build.

 

[Monster1926]

Your analogy is not honest to the facts of the situation.

You're at line in a bakery. The bakery has 20 blueberry donuts available that day. There are 60 people in line.

The bakery crew showed up early that morning and were able to to make an additional 3 donuts.

They hand out 20 blueberry donuts to the first 20 people in line, and then pick 3 lucky people from the remaining 40 to also get a donut that day.

Who go screwed?

Oh, and by the way, tomorrow the remaining 37 people will be back in line, but the bakery will be able to make 50 donuts.

We’re going to disagree and bicker about this but the fact is if production was started early those are Broncos that early reservation holders should of gotten and not priority. Oh and the bakery that you’re talking about ran out of blueberries they can’t make them anymore. They can make carrot cake donuts but who wants to settle for a carrot cake doughnut.

 

[ZackDanger]

“If you aren't in your dealership's first 30%, it only means that statistically you aren't in the first 30% nationally either... so you wont be in the first 30% anywhere.”

I disagree, say your dealers getting 10 Broncos and your the 10th according to a time stamp of 10pm . Now say my dealers getting 35 and I’m #36 because I have a 9:59 pm time stamp. The first 35 all had earlier timestamps then 9:59. Now I move my res to your dealer and I bump you out of getting built. That’s how it all works with reservation time stamp and allocations.
For the sake of simplicity we all had the exact same build.

Right. Here's the deal with ratios like this... yes. You can come up with a very specific fringe case scenario where someone makes the cut at one dealership but not at another... but we're talking about things in aggregate here. The numbers are much too great and the variables much too many to be able to predict or make things totally equitable across the board. Say you bump me out of me slot on my dealership by transferring in, but then someone in front of you decides to hold out for a MOD top, now I'm back in.

I can also imagine a scenario where a dealership exists in the Radio Quiet Zone and none of the town folk even heard about the Bronco until January, and then all raced to the dealership in town, and placed 1,000 bronco orders. Under allocation, roughly 300 of those orders would all "bump" reveal night orders at another dealership out of MY21.

MY21 production is finite. Generally speaking there are only enough MY21 Broncos to go to the first 30%... when you're right on the edge of that 30%, funny things start to happen... but it's impossible to correct or prepare for. If you were able to see every single dealership and what their timestamp dispersion was, so you could pick just the right dealership to squeak in on the cut, someone else would do the same and snipe you.... and then a commodity shortage would delay someone's build and you'd just be in again.

 

[Drex]

Or else what happens to all the other Broncos coming off the line? And before anyone starts screaming zomg dealer stock!, it has already been stated that a retail order will get built before a dealer stock order if commodities allow it.

No, in fact after being repeatedly and directly asked about MY 2022, Ford has kept saying that promise is for MY 2021. The have refused to comment on anything regarding 2022 even when directly asked.

The problem is the back up and running part. The mic issues are so bad they’re replacing ALL of them. Any fix to mic will take waaaaayyy longer than Ford is letting on.

I forget where in here, but I recall seeing 3rd quarter, 2022 in a Ford statement on when replacements would be available, means they expect to have extra capacity over what they choose to produce after that.

Do the dealer stock units go against the allocation limit? If so this is very concerning. ... Sorry!

Yes, allocations for all except the FE's that carry their own (like they all originally did before allocations)

If you aren't in your dealership's first 30%, it only means that statistically you aren't in the first 30% nationally either... so you wont be in the first 30% anywhere.

This is assuming equal distribution of timestamp orders everywhere, a totally unrealistic assumption here. The earlier timestamps are far more likely to continue the aggressive effort needed to get through the website into getting a better deal, getting on forums, and the like. They will have more orders as a percentage at dealers that are trying to move volume instead of making all the profit on one sale. The allocation system specifically screws them, the early reservation people. Your statistical 'analysis' is worthless due to your underlying assumptions of nationally equal distribution of timestamps. Without allocations, each consumer would be free to order from anyone and not be penalized with additional wait times (shipping and commodity logistics aside), Ford changed that with the allocations and it absolutely affects the earlier timestamps more.

 

[ZackDanger]

We’re going to disagree and bicker about this but the fact is if production was started early those are Broncos that early reservation holders should of gotten and not priority. Oh and the bakery that you’re talking about ran out of blueberries they can’t make them anymore. They can make carrot cake donuts but who wants to settle for a carrot cake doughnut.

I know we're not going to sway each other, but I do need to point out that your dealership perhaps got *a* priority build, maybe 2, and their first delivery of Broncos didn't occur until they had 5 to put on the truck... Even if you were the #1 and then got delayed because of that line jumper, your bronco showed up at the exact same moment it would have otherwise.

I stand by my statement, with the numbers we're actually dealing with, "priority builds" are inconsequential. There are so many better things this forum should have been getting apoplectic about.

 

[Oceannomad]

Why is it some dealers gleefully tell their customers the number of allocations they have and your position whilst others hide it like the Ark of the Covenant?

 

[Monster1926]

I know we're not going to sway each other, but I do need to point out that your dealership perhaps got *a* priority build, maybe 2, and their first delivery of Broncos didn't occur until they had 5 to put on the truck... Even if you were the #1 and then got delayed because of that line jumper, your bronco showed up at the exact same moment it would have otherwise.

I stand by my statement, with the numbers we're actually dealing with, "priority builds" are inconsequential. There are so many better things this forum should have been getting apoplecic about.

How do you feel about priority/vip orders? Do you think it was wrong for Ford to give them out and allow people to jump to the very front of the line?

 

[ZackDanger]

How do you feel about priority/vip orders? Do you think it was wrong for Ford to give them out and allow people to jump to the very front of the line?

Nope.

Like I said, looking at the facts it didn't have any measurable impact on when I would receive my Bronco, and it allowed a fellow Bronco enthusiast, who may be in more of a dire need for transportation, or for whom that Bronco meant more to them, to get theirs before me.

Even if it did push my delivery back (which it wouldn't necessarily based on what I already shared, and especially not if my dealer awarded it to someone with an earlier reservation), had that person approached me directly to cut in line with a meaningful reason, I would have have personally let them cut me if I could.

There are people on this very forum who are excited about their Bronco to go on a trip with their kid, need transportation to get to and from work, or to reconnect with an aging parent or loved one... they absolutely "deserve" to get their bronco before me. I'm glad Ford provided locally-based dealerships with a way to influence something like that happen.

 

[WuNgUn]

Allocations is how every vehicle is distributed to dealers. It will absolutely continue to be used.

Too much energy is extended complaining about allocations ruining everything without really understanding how they work. It's simply a way to distribute total annual production over the country. While you can find exceptions, for the most part people are going to get their Broncos in the same general time frame as they would under a straight timestamp system.

Allocations for 22 are likely to be between 2 and 3 times as large as 21 allocations. @ZackDanger did a good job laying out some logic in here.

Well, allocations matter in the way that a small, rural Ford dealership in Butt fuck Idaho won't be taking delivery of 40 Bronco's. Lol
Allocation formula in your sense will matter with the dealer lot vehicles, obviously...
As for orders/resercations, I'm pretty sure they're gonna fill them all within commodities as soon and as best they can.

 

[BlueBronco]

No, in fact after being repeatedly and directly asked about MY 2022, Ford has kept saying that promise is for MY 2021. The have refused to comment on anything regarding 2022 even when directly asked.

But yes. Dealers will be allocated X amount of Broncos a month for MY22 with whatever formula that Ford comes up with. Within that monthly allocation, retail orders will take precedence over stock orders unless commodities are constrained. Will some dealerships burn through their retail orders faster than others and end up with dealer stock before a reservation holder gets their Bronco? Most likely, yes, and towards the end of next year you can guarantee plenty of "the sky is falling" threads on that very topic. But unless a dealership is manipulating priority codes when ordering, a reserved unit will deliver before a stock unit. I know a lot of people think the allocation system screwed people over, but whether it was publicized or whether people like it or not, it was always part of Fords plan to maintain a more equalized distribution.

 

[mmorgan]

Switch dealers to improve your odds?

While this makes a lot of sense, extracting the needed info from a dealer could prove problematic.

 

[BroncOBabe2.7]

I still have not seen this part of my post addressed.

Your dealership is allocated 100 units. Due to part availability, your build isn't getting done. Meanwhile, others with non-constraint builds continue to get produced. By April, 100 reservationist orders (most of them placed way later than you) have been built and sold. Come June and you finally get the notice that all of the parts needed for your dream ride are in and it can finally be built! Yay! But.... oh no.... since your dealership already went through their 100 allocations you're SOL. Given the serious commodity constraints how is this not a highly likely scenario?

So if your build has a lot of sins, it's possible that you could continue to be bumped down the line and when the parts do come in to build your ride... ooops! We're all out of allocations for this year!

 

[Monster1926]

Nope.

Like I said, looking at the facts it didn't have any measurable impact on when I would receive my Bronco, and it allowed a fellow Bronco enthusiast, who may be in more of a dire need for transportation, or for whom that Bronco meant more to them, to get theirs before me.

Even if it did push my delivery back (which it wouldn't necessarily based on what I already shared, and especially not if my dealer awarded it to someone with an earlier reservation), had that person approached me directly to cut in line with a meaningful reason, I would have have personally let them cut me if I could.

There are people on this very forum who are excited about their Bronco to go on a trip with their kid, need transportation to get to and from work, or to reconnect with an aging parent or loved one... they absolutely "deserve" to get their bronco before me. I'm glad Ford provided locally-based dealerships with a way to influence something like that happen.

So you got a priority order then? I know you took delivery of your bronco already. You would feel very different if you were one of the ones who just got the you’ll be getting a 2022 bronco email. My FE was always going to be built (maybe) priority orders don’t effect me but it does piss me off when Ford deviates from what they say to sling shot someone who isn’t 1/8 as invested as some people on here. I’m done replying to our conversation (not a argument and I’m not apoplectic) now.
Have a good day and weekend.

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