Bronco production update 8/9: Commodity issues far beyond MIC tops. Chip shortage reaches Bronco supply chain (NO COVID TALK)

[PREMiERdrum]

Good to see you alive and well . Any updates on the Broncos still sitting at MAP since June? Are they waiting on chips?

To my knowledge, none of the purgatory holds are waiting on chips. MAP hasn't built any Broncos without chips awaiting further installation as other Ford plants have. I've heard of some proposals but nothing that's started yet.

@PREMiERdrum - If we have build waiting on the MAP lot for a roof but have chips, there's no reason to think that Ford will start using them as a pick and pull for new builds, is there? Steal a part from an already waiting build to kick out a freshly made one. God I hope not!

No, emphatically. Hasn't happened, isn't happening, won't happen.

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[Broncos 4 evah]

As long as you put Bronco 6g logo drum heads on it.....

Both my son's went through 4 years of high school marching band. Band camp was always a rough go. Full sun and temps in the upper 90's. At least the humidity was low.

The band dads had shirts. They read, Ours is not to reason why, Ours is just to move the band.

 

[Trueblue2296]

In all honesty, FE reservation holders are the only ones who should feel super confident about much of anything at this point.

You're good.

@PREMiERdrum Any insight on the many of us that continuously get our build dates pushed the week Pryor to them starting our builds. Some people have been pushed out to 10/4. I am personally lucky if you can even say that. I got pushed to 8/30 so far and I anticipate it’ll go further.

Why is this happening if Ford has pulled us for a VIN meaning they have the parts to build our Bronco’s? At least thats what I though it meant.

Thank you as always for continuously providing us great info.

 

[JT58Bronc]

At this point I have no idea when I will get my 7/14 reservation. I have moved on with plans to keep my current vehicles. I'll keep it on order and decide if I want it when/if it ever comes in. My son may need a new vehicle by then and he may want it.

 

[Flourman]

I don't really agree with this, Ford knows exactly how many of each commodity is being delivered every week, and they could use that information to plan a much more conservative production schedule to base ETAs off of for the tens of thousands of us in limbo. Basically I can see no legiitmate reason they still cannot have delivered on their early promise of an ETA in May of this year. It seems more like they won't deliver on that promise, probably because the data indicates bad news and they want to limit cancellations.

I’ll have to disagree with this. As you’ve read, supply chains are messed up everywhere. EVEN DOMESTICALLY. Want something made, well what happens when that person just doesn’t show up to work because they found a better job somewhere. Line level roles are extremely hard to fill. The hiring market is extremely brutal now. The loyal people on the lines are pulling more hours to cover production while the person that just got a job offer you think is starting tomorrow just called and said they found a better job.

Once the product is made, good luck getting a truck under it. Even in food manufacturing, which is slightly more important than auto manufacturing, loads of food sit because we can’t get trucks under them.

A truck shows up at the dock to pickup the product. Good. They go to unload at a dock and guess what, the dock person quit. Oh the driver ran out of hours and can’t pull in. Looks like the truck gets unloaded the next day.

Oh, well you say what about rail commerce? It takes one person not to show on a switch crew to stop a rail delivery from happening. The thin rail crews get deployed to where the immediate needs are (think oil, oil and oil then maybe grain) Intermodal shipping compounds the trucking and rail issues.

This is just domestic, local shipping routes. Now compound the ships sitting, waiting on customs clearance and then compound the same situations we are seeing here happening overseas.

Ford may know what’s supposed to show up but it’s anyone’s guess on what is actually on that truck or rail car.

I want my bronco just like everyone else but this goes beyond Ford’s control. The best thing they can do is be as transparent as they can right now.

 

[GotGOAT]

Here's the thing - Ford has tried to string everyone along and keep enthusiasm up in the face of constant delays. At this point, they need to push out a real communication to order holders AND equip dealers with real information to assist their customers. They have been overpromising and underdelivering consistently throughout this process - and maybe all due to factors they have limited control over - but at the end of the day, the product says "Ford" on it (well, or at least "Bronco", which is a Ford product!), so the buck stops with them. Start under promising and then try to over deliver. I feel bad for people who were planning on moving from a lease into their Bronco, or need to upgrade a vehicle and were waiting on this with no end in sight. Many of us, myself included, were buying this as an "extra" vehicle, so while very frustrating, it's not critical for me. If it takes too long, I may just move on to something else and think about it further down the road. But they are terribly mismanaging their customers on this, and as a Ford shareholder, this very well could have a trickle down effect of people walking away from their orders, and possibly not coming back to Ford for future purchases. And it may certainly impact other people considering an order for the launch of the F150 Lightning or other future vehicle - especially with Ford announcing they want to shift more to build to order sales. And I realize these are unique times, but as many of us in various businesses have seen this past year, how you communicate with your stakeholders through a crisis can have tremendous impact on how you emerge from it - and Ford is failing in that category, in my opinion.

At this point, I think Ford should simply say "we are having far greater supply chain and production challenges than we could have anticipated, and we know that we have not done a sufficient job of communicating that with you. At this point, our commitment for 2021 is to deliver all First Edition reservations, and all Broncos that have been built and are waiting on parts or other quality checks. If you have not received notification that your Bronco has been built, you should anticipate a MY 22 build, and we will be releasing the build & price for MY 22 on ____. If you have a Ford vehicle that is end of lease and have a Bronco on order, your dealer has options to extend that lease for you at your current payment until your Bronco is delivered." And then come up with some sort of meaningful financial incentive / discount to get order holders to stay in the queue and not bail on their orders - commit to selling at invoice, guarantee 0% financing, etc. Do something to hold onto as many orders as you can because if people start to bail, you lose so many enthusiasts that would be your initial brand ambassadors, and you the negative comments and coverage will pile up. And then maybe start MY 22 production earlier if they are able to and have cleared the units promised, but stop dragging this shit out and rip the band-aid off already.

Agree…but, it’s not going to happen. The C-suite is too afraid the stock price will fall. This is the problem with managing (certainly not leading) based on quarterly earnings reports, instead of what’s best for the company and customers in the long run.
Unfortunately, Ford is just like most companies in this regard.

 

[PecOBX]

To my knowledge, none of the purgatory holds are waiting on chips. MAP hasn't built any Broncos without chips awaiting further installation as other Ford plants have. I've heard of some proposals but nothing that's started yet.



No, emphatically. Hasn't happened, isn't happening, won't happen.

Thank you for all the updates and info. As to your first reply, if my Bronco was built (7/19 week) and now sits at a MAP lot, but does not have a MIC top (4Dr soft top, no Sas or tow) does that mean something else failed QC?

There are a few folks from the 7/19 week with soft tops sitting with me and no idea why - If the vehicles are not missing chips. Was kinda hoping that was a generic issue holding things up - but appears not to be

 

[BuzzyBud]

@PREMiERdrum
Ross, based on your current knowledge, are you able to say if MAP will stop building Broncos during any days in August? Also, are you able to tell us what the percent distribution of Ranger to Bronco may be during periods within August?

 

[RagnarKon]

That's what 'ETA' means, it's a rough estimate. I never said they know what is going to be delivered in the future, but they better know what has been delivered in the past. You take the floor (aka the bottom of a given time slice) of what has been delivered in the past up til now (so a sliding window), use that to project to the future, and build a data model to ' conservatively estimate' what quarter (or even half year) orders will be fulfilled within.

I think the problem is the past numbers are not a good forecast for the future.

A month ago they were starting to see improvements in their supply chain, things were headed in the right direction, and they started scheduling builds for August using the information they had in July.

Now that we’re in August, obviously everything they had hoped to do is out the window.

If they were to give a realistic ETA, it would probably be “sometime between now and the end of 2022”.

 

[bytheway]

Guess no one should hold their breath for Thursday emails this week.

 

[mcdoogs]

I think the problem is the past numbers are not a good forecast for the future.

A month ago they were starting to see improvements in their supply chain, things were headed in the right direction, and they started scheduling builds for August using the information they had in July.

Now that we’re in August, obviously everything they had hoped to do is out the window.

If they were to give a realistic ETA, it would probably be “sometime between now and the end of 2022”.

That's why you build a data model and provide rolling estimates based on past data, that's how all data models work. Which would be infinitely better than radio silence, realize I'm only asking for rough, wide estimates like Q2 2022 or 1H 2022 until an order is actually scheduled.

 

[Gamecock]

Imagine if we started making more products in the US instead of outsourcing to other countries

Like with the Webasto top?

 

[Bmars1127]

I’ll sweeten the pot - I’ll pay an extra $50 to get this stupid feature disabled.

I have it- it’s annoying. Sounds like I stalled out at the light. I wanna look cool… not dumb!

 

[JoeyD577]

Agree…but, it’s not going to happen. The C-suite is too afraid the stock price will fall. This is the problem with managing (certainly not leading) based on quarterly earnings reports, instead of what’s best for the company and customers in the long run.
Unfortunately, Ford is just like most companies in this regard.

But, this issue isn't anything the market / stock analysts aren't already aware of. In fact, I'm sure there are plenty of stock analysts covering Ford that check these various forums , and they all know what's happening week by week in terms of production and production issues.

 

[SpeedLimit18]

So if we don’t have build dates yet then what ?

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