165k Reservations might be the 2021 cut off and a tall order to fulfill.

[ZackDanger]

They don't know how many cancellations they'll have so they have to say 2022 to cover themselves in the event more people follow through with an order than the company expects.

I believe that people in that 165K number who actually place an order will get their Bronco next spring. After all, we just floated Ford a 0% interest, $16.5M loan.

My understanding is that the $100 reservation fee went directly to the respective dealers...

I wouldn't mind taking the hit for everyone and volunteering to take my delivery later... after all, it will just give me that much more time to save money for a larger down payment.

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[Granger Ford]

I believe that people in that 165K number who actually place an order will get their Bronco next spring. After all, we just floated Ford a 0% interest, $16.5M loan.

Ford Motor Company does not have the money the individual dealers do other than the transfers that the customer has the money...

 

[lobbs611]

If a third of those 165k reservations actually place an order that's 55k just to fill reservations. I think it's been mentioned before that at peak capacity they could knock 5k a week out of the plant that runs the Ranger and Bronco. So, that's roughly 11 weeks if they produce solely Broncos, 22 if they're at half capacity due to COVID. Even if they're at an 80% Broncos versus Rangers that's still only like 6 months to fill the likely actual Bronco reservation orders. You've got a decent chance to get your Bronco in 2021/early 2022 at the latest if you've got a reservation.

 

[NPBronco91]

I wouldn't mind taking the hit for everyone and volunteering to take my delivery later... after all, it will just give me that much more time to save money for a larger down payment.

I doubt it but I wonder if Ford would add some incentive or discount if we were to volunteer by taking a later delivery.

Do we know how our ranking/reservation number is compared within the 165k? Or we only know how we stack up in on Bronco6g?

 

[Granger Ford]

I understand. But your missing the point. Although Ford has already put out that information there was never a number attached to it to gauge who will get pushed into 2022. For example anything after 500k.

165k in my mind was nothing for a manufacturer to build in one year. Especially since they pump out 900k F-150s per year. But in this scenario with Covid-19 and building the Bronco in one Factory it is an issue. A chunk of 165k may get pushed into 2022 already.

Also people aren't going to stop placing new reservations from now till December the number isn't going to drop from 165k its going to keep growing. So even if you calculate people dropping out and canceling reservations its still going to be $165k ++ by Christmas. Probably much more.

Lets wait and see...

You are getting worked up over the "potential" production of the Bronco?

When did you reserve yours...

 

[cursed_hemi]

I bet less than half of reservations will be turned into orders. The last I heard production starts in April (we'll see) with deliveries targeted for June. Between 6,000-7,200 produced a week depending on the week, so average that out to 6,600 a week when production is in full swing. So let's assume production is at full capacity by June, rounded down that comes to 26k/month. So based on all of these hypotheticals, if 50% of reservations are actually ordered (let's round up) there would be approximately 85k orders.

So they could fill the reservations, assuming only 50% are ordered, in less than 4 months.

Again, all hypotheticals here. Just basing it off the information Ford has released per their target dates / projected production numbers.

 

[JB93]

I want mine, but many things seem to point that it would likely be better to buy one in 2023 when there are more colors and options that become standard vs packaged in a way that.....

 

[dejones64]

I pondered buying a jeep but never got close to actually getting past the pondering stage. Ford made the announcement of the Bronco. I was all over that! I am willing to wait (not really but it'll be worth it). I will not bail for something else. It's the Bronco that I want!

 

[BroncoJay]

Not all but many of the people in the first 165k that reserved a Bronco are hard-core Bronco fans that have been waiting for a long time for this moment. I don't see very many dropping their reservations if any at all. Now people that come later yes they may change their minds.

I think hoping for 50% to drop their reservations is a pipe dream and wishful thinking. I think you'll be surprised at just how many people want this vehicle bad. It almost has a cult following.

I disagree man. Many of us on this forum are hardcore enthusiasts but we don’t represent the majority of reservation holders. Many just saw the reveal and thought huh cool, ya why not it’s only a hundo. 165k aren’t all dying to get this rig and hit the streets or dirt roads. We have a society of I want it now and many aren’t going to wait a 12-18 month or longer build time, we have short attention spans and people will move on.

 

[Rough Rider]

If a third of those 165k reservations actually place an order that's 55k just to fill reservations. I think it's been mentioned before that at peak capacity they could knock 5k a week out of the plant that runs the Ranger and Bronco. So, that's roughly 11 weeks if they produce solely Broncos, 22 if they're at half capacity due to COVID. Even if they're at an 80% Broncos versus Rangers that's still only like 6 months to fill the likely actual Bronco reservation orders. You've got a decent chance to get your Bronco in 2021/early 2022 at the latest if you've got a reservation.

Usual max production at a plant is like 300K vehicles for something Michigan Assemblys size and that is running 3 shifts. And no they dont run 3 shifts at Michigan Assembly and it takes time to get a shift up to speed if they have to add it, which they wont do prior to Bronco as Ranger does not need it.

The volume will be split between 2 products. They will not sacrifice too many Ranger sales for Bronco and the suppliers, most importantly, are only set to build a projected volume of parts for the life of the Bronco. No point in paying a ton of extra tooling up front for an early huge demand that drops off alter.

So, i'd you figure, 2 shifts, max production is 200K a year, 2 products with Ranger already over 100K, you are at Max capacity of 100K broncos a year currently. now they are not building a full year, only like 9 months right...so that knocks it down to 75K in 21. now, add a third shift, so we are back up to 150K, but it will be a slow start to the build and a slow third shift, so you are probably somewhere in the 125K MAX units build in 21 IF they add a third shift, which they currently dont have, and IF the suppliers can build out tooling to support that level of product demand in time.

When they flop over to 22MY is another conversation as they usually do that in November at the LATEST, so that could further chop the number down and some people who reserved a 21MY may indeed get a 22MY.

 

[VictoryLights]

I am wondering how many reservations they will really have by time ordering starts. There will probably be a large amount of people that won't even fulfill their order.

Agreed, Ford obviously knows this and that is accounted for in their estimate.

We cant compare Ford's F-150 efficiency to the Bronco. They have been building those in high numbers since forever.

Using common sense, there is a reason they're being so tight-lipped with everything. There is a still a lot of work to do and a lot of unknowns.

Have we seen a single Bronco in any trim that was completely accurate yet? They're all Frankenstein builds because they don't have all of the right parts yet.

 

[shoelessjoe]

I bet less than half of reservations will be turned into orders. The last I heard production starts in April (we'll see) with deliveries targeted for June. Between 6,000-7,200 produced a week depending on the week, so average that out to 6,600 a week when production is in full swing. So let's assume production is at full capacity by June, rounded down that comes to 26k/month. So based on all of these hypotheticals, if 50% of reservations are actually ordered (let's round up) there would be approximately 85k orders.

So they could fill the reservations, assuming only 50% are ordered, in less than 4 months.

Again, all hypotheticals here. Just basing it off the information Ford has released per their target dates / projected production numbers.

They should be coming back from shutdown/change over this week or next week. I can't see them not starting production until April.

 

[BroncoJay]

I think Ford knows the data from past car reveals and reservations, how many turn into actual orders. There is some math and accounting nerd crunching numbers for Ford to give them a breakdown, otherwise Ford could’ve shut down all reservations saying we are at max capacity. They didn’t do this with the fact that many of the 165k will walk before the order goes to the bank. It’s not good business to say hey look at this new awesome product and then say hey it might be two years before you can actually have it....

 

[Squatch]

I think Ford knows the data from past car reveals and reservations, how many turn into actual orders. There is some math and accounting nerd crunching numbers for Ford to give them a breakdown, otherwise Ford could’ve shut down all reservations saying we are at max capacity. They didn’t do this with the fact that many of the 165k will walk before the order goes to the bank. It’s not good business to say hey look at this new awesome product and then say hey it might be two years before you can actually have it....

I agree, but obviously some of their nerds' math failed, because they overbooked the FE.

 

[cursed_hemi]

They should be coming back from shutdown/change over this week or next week. I can't see them not starting production until April.

Hopefully it's sooner than that but I think it comes down to suppliers and such also.

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