Bronco sales analysis

[markpilip]

First of all great work on the spread sheets!

The first Broncos produced that were pre-production units that weren't salable I think is a bigger part than you may have accounted for. I read those not only included Jan-March (very little Production) but April, May and a good part of June's production that were not salable or other wised planned uses. You accounted for manikins, media and etc, but I think there is more broncos that were test mules on the road, or torn back apart for QC inspections and fine turning the line and production, or other testing/crash units and etc.

I lived on hwy 18 in the mountains and saw so many test vehicles, camo to ready to sell (all types) doing the same or similar test loop from sea level to the mountains and down to and across the desert and back; the magazines too. A job I'd love to have. Many other places around the county too like in CO, TFL taped a lot of cars testing there too. So there are many pre-production cars running around prior to release and after.

When I get a chance I’ll do a version that completely backs out those first few months and tries to account for the other categories explicitly with some estimates.
I believe that after I do that, there’s still some number greater than 10K but less than the 23 or 24K I guessed as missing that are potentially on Dirt Mountain.
IIRC, last summer somebody had a drone shot of a lot or two and someone estimated about 5K Broncos sitting on the lot.
I bet it’s at least double now, meaning the commodities problems, whether MIC tops or chips, are significantly worse this summer than last.
I fear we 1/17 and similar build week folks are probably looking at Q4 deliveries, unfortunately.

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[Alcotune]

You're right. I don't have non-US sales here. Assume a relatively small number for Canada and, I imagine, there's a few exported to some other countries. Maybe another 1-2K?

Still ~20K missing.

Looks like Canada had 1718 sales in Q1 and Mexico 501.
Not really significant, maybe that's why mine is left to rot on Ice/Dirt Mountain

Other country Sales:
https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-...ford-sales-numbers/ford-bronco-sales-numbers/

 

[Snowdogyyz]

Yep, that could be reasonably close to the truth as well, although MAYBE some of the CarGurus Broncos are being syndicated from the dealership websites, so some of those might be double-counted with the ones already in transit.

I'll be the number is tickling 5 figures given what I've seen in the videos.

I used Car gurus when I was searching for a bronco for the past year. MOST of the ones I enquired about were customer orders. That’s my experience anyway.

 

[Drvmustangs]

This really shows that my July 17th 2020 reservation, January 20th 2021, bumped to my22 Ordered October 14th 2021 will be pushed out yet again.

 

[Epenney]

I've been irritated by the recent push of my 1/17 build week EDD to July 26th. So I started tracking Ford's Bronco sales, using their official monthly updates.

Here's my worksheet, if interested, updated through April 2022:

Based on the data, for the first time in April, Ford started to eat into their inventory and sold more Broncos than produced (the red line is higher than the blue line).

The total difference of sold to produced Broncos went down for the first time in April 2022, with a difference of 31,443 fewer Broncos sold than produced.

Now the cause for the difference could be:

1. Broncos used for manikins
2. Broncos used for Bronco rodeo and other assorted BS
3. Broncos used for promotional purposes, i.e. lent out to YouTubers
4. Broncos abandoned to rot on Dirt Mountain OR being cannibalized for parts and therefore not able to be sold

Items 1-3 might be relatively small. If there's 3K Ford dealers in the US, manikin count would be about 6-7K. Maybe 200 for off-rodeo purposes? Maybe 400 total as it seems they may have recently refreshed the vehicles.

Maybe 50 press vehicles.

So perhaps 7.5K are unable to be sold. That leaves about 24K Broncos unaccounted for in category 4--rotting on Dirt Mountain, waiting for parts or being cannibalized for parts to keep the line running.

Thoughts on my lousy math?

When looked at as a percentage, Ford was stuck at about 64% of total Broncos produced as sold for four consecutive months. It was only in April when that percentage rose to 70%.

Still 30% of all the Broncos built haven't been sold.

Here's the cume totals:

I am basically asked every day "when is the Bronco coming?" And I look at it from Ford's side. If you can produce a Big Bend, sell it to some buyer that JUST ordered regardless of ADM and it makes Buyer happy, dealer happy and Ford happy, why wouldn't they? They still have me on the hook for $2100 at my dealership for a reservation that's been out there well over a year. When they have leeched out every last buyer willing to pay way over MSRP, they will get around to pulling some scrap parts together and sending me a vehicle. Reservations holders are not their "preferred" customers, we are their guaranteed sales.

 

[SDBRONCO]

Thank you for producing this and hoping you get yours soon.
It will be worth the wait, but I know its excruciating.
It makes me feel a bit less anxious to know that the blow engine percent is .0004 based on 103,152 produced and 47 engine fails.

 

[telenerd]

What a nerd.

 

[KComer]

I am basically asked every day "when is the Bronco coming?" And I look at it from Ford's side. If you can produce a Big Bend, sell it to some buyer that JUST ordered regardless of ADM and it makes Buyer happy, dealer happy and Ford happy, why wouldn't they? They still have me on the hook for $2100 at my dealership for a reservation that's been out there well over a year. When they have leeched out every last buyer willing to pay way over MSRP, they will get around to pulling some scrap parts together and sending me a vehicle. Reservations holders are not their "preferred" customers, we are their guaranteed sales.

Exactly!

 

[AZ_Liberty]

Mannequins count as sold. Ford sells them to FCTP for accounting purposes.

 

[markpilip]

Mannequins count as sold. Ford sells them to FCTP for accounting purposes.

Great, thanks for that clarification. That makes the missing Bronco number bigger, offset by some of the suggestions from folks earlier.

I'll make those updates when I refresh and refine the model over the weekend.

 

[grenjith7]

When I get a chance I’ll do a version that completely backs out those first few months and tries to account for the other categories explicitly with some estimates.
I believe that after I do that, there’s still some number greater than 10K but less than the 23 or 24K I guessed as missing that are potentially on Dirt Mountain.
IIRC, last summer somebody had a drone shot of a lot or two and someone estimated about 5K Broncos sitting on the lot.
I bet it’s at least double now, meaning the commodities problems, whether MIC tops or chips, are significantly worse this summer than last.
I fear we 1/17 and similar build week folks are probably looking at Q4 deliveries, unfortunately.

~23K-224K is too high a number-esp. for a single product line. Your calculation or some assumptions in that calculation are wrong. Numbers should be way less.

 

[markpilip]

~23K-224K is too high a number-esp. for a single product line. Your calculation or some assumptions in that calculation are wrong. Numbers should be way less.

Should be, yep. But with some of the recent clarifications from folks on this thread, I’ll sort it out over the weekend. But I think even so, from back of the envelope adjustments, seems like there’s a solid five figures worth of Broncos in purgatory.

And I think the locus of suck is Dirt Mountain.

 

[slycat67]

I've been irritated by the recent push of my 1/17 build week EDD to July 26th. So I started tracking Ford's Bronco sales, using their official monthly updates.

Here's my worksheet, if interested, updated through April 2022:

Based on the data, for the first time in April, Ford started to eat into their inventory and sold more Broncos than produced (the red line is higher than the blue line).

The total difference of sold to produced Broncos went down for the first time in April 2022, with a difference of 31,443 fewer Broncos sold than produced.

Now the cause for the difference could be:

1. Broncos used for manikins
2. Broncos used for Bronco rodeo and other assorted BS
3. Broncos used for promotional purposes, i.e. lent out to YouTubers
4. Broncos abandoned to rot on Dirt Mountain OR being cannibalized for parts and therefore not able to be sold

Items 1-3 might be relatively small. If there's 3K Ford dealers in the US, manikin count would be about 6-7K. Maybe 200 for off-rodeo purposes? Maybe 400 total as it seems they may have recently refreshed the vehicles.

Maybe 50 press vehicles.

So perhaps 7.5K are unable to be sold. That leaves about 24K Broncos unaccounted for in category 4--rotting on Dirt Mountain, waiting for parts or being cannibalized for parts to keep the line running.

Thoughts on my lousy math?

When looked at as a percentage, Ford was stuck at about 64% of total Broncos produced as sold for four consecutive months. It was only in April when that percentage rose to 70%.

Still 30% of all the Broncos built haven't been sold.

Here's the cume totals:

here is my question. How many people start to walk away from a +$50k vehicle as interest rates climb and the economy moves into recession? You may get your Bronco sooner than you think or you may walk away depending on how much you thought you were financing then vs. now. That increasing interest rate is gonna change some people’s calculations….

 

[Victoryengineer]

Should be, yep. But with some of the recent clarifications from folks on this thread, I’ll sort it out over the weekend. But I think even so, from back of the envelope adjustments, seems like there’s a solid five figures worth of Broncos in purgatory.

And I think the locus of suck is Dirt Mountain.

Thanks for doing so much work on this!

"And I think the locus of suck is Dirt Mountain"

 

[jon]

As a July 2020 Reservation holder, and with so many Day 1 and 2 reservations still in the holding pattern, what is the real plan from FORD? Will it ever arrive?

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