Bronco sales analysis

[markpilip]

I've been irritated by the recent push of my 1/17 build week EDD to July 26th. So I started tracking Ford's Bronco sales, using their official monthly updates.

Here's my worksheet, if interested, updated through April 2022:

Based on the data, for the first time in April, Ford started to eat into their inventory and sold more Broncos than produced (the red line is higher than the blue line).

The total difference of sold to produced Broncos went down for the first time in April 2022, with a difference of 31,443 fewer Broncos sold than produced.

Now the cause for the difference could be:

1. Broncos used for manikins
2. Broncos used for Bronco rodeo and other assorted BS
3. Broncos used for promotional purposes, i.e. lent out to YouTubers
4. Broncos abandoned to rot on Dirt Mountain OR being cannibalized for parts and therefore not able to be sold

Items 1-3 might be relatively small. If there's 3K Ford dealers in the US, manikin count would be about 6-7K. Maybe 200 for off-rodeo purposes? Maybe 400 total as it seems they may have recently refreshed the vehicles.

Maybe 50 press vehicles.

So perhaps 7.5K are unable to be sold. That leaves about 24K Broncos unaccounted for in category 4--rotting on Dirt Mountain, waiting for parts or being cannibalized for parts to keep the line running.

Thoughts on my lousy math?

When looked at as a percentage, Ford was stuck at about 64% of total Broncos produced as sold for four consecutive months. It was only in April when that percentage rose to 70%.

Still 30% of all the Broncos built haven't been sold.

Here's the cume totals:

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[TABadlands]

Wow, that's a lot of factory; chip; dirt, mud, ice mountain; shipping holds, delays, etc.

 

[66GT]

I've been irritated by the recent push of my 1/17 build week EDD to July 26th. So I started tracking Ford's Bronco sales, using their official monthly updates.

Here's my worksheet, if interested, updated through April 2022:

Based on the data, for the first time in April, Ford started to eat into their inventory and sold more Broncos than produced (the red line is higher than the blue line).

The total difference of sold to produced Broncos went down for the first time in April 2022, with a difference of 31,443 fewer Broncos sold than produced.

Now the cause for the difference could be:

1. Broncos used for manikins
2. Broncos used for Bronco rodeo and other assorted BS
3. Broncos used for promotional purposes, i.e. lent out to YouTubers
4. Broncos abandoned to rot on Dirt Mountain OR being cannibalized for parts and therefore not able to be sold

Items 1-3 might be relatively small. If there's 3K Ford dealers in the US, manikin count would be about 6-7K. Maybe 200 for off-rodeo purposes? Maybe 400 total as it seems they may have recently refreshed the vehicles.

Maybe 50 press vehicles.

So perhaps 7.5K are unable to be sold. That leaves about 24K Broncos unaccounted for in category 4--rotting on Dirt Mountain, waiting for parts or being cannibalized for parts to keep the line running.

Thoughts on my lousy math?

When looked at as a percentage, Ford was stuck at about 64% of total Broncos produced as sold for four consecutive months. It was only in April when that percentage rose to 70%.

Still 30% of all the Broncos built haven't been sold.

Here's the cume totals:

Great stats.... you may be missing a few groups.

1. Inventory in transit.
2. Inventory on lots (for sale or being modified).
3. Vehicles damaged in transit or anytime after production which required destruction.
4. Ford executive vehicles.
5. Vehicles loaned out to aftermarket for accessory manufacturing.

Probably more cracks for them to fall in... but your concerns about the unfinished Broncos piling up are real and valid.

Covid/supply constraints were an industry-wide problem... but Ford brought on their own problems.

You know, if Ford hadn't taken reservations for almost 200k vehicles, their issues would be in house and under the radar. As it is, their blunders are out in the open and being scrutinized by a rabid fan base.

Could be worse. They could be building cars that suck and nobody wants.

 

[markpilip]

Great stats.... you may be missing a few groups.

1. Inventory in transit.
2. Inventory on lots (for sale or being modified).
3. Vehicles damaged in transit or anytime after production which required destruction.
4. Ford executive vehicles.
5. Vehicles loaned out to aftermarket for accessory manufacturing.

Probably more cracks for them to fall in... but your concerns about the unfinished Broncos piling up are real and valid.

Covid/supply constraints were an industry-wide problem... but Ford brought on their own problems.

You know, if Ford hadn't taken reservations for almost 200k vehicles, their issues would be in house and under the radar. As it is, their blunders are out in the open and being scrutinized by a rabid fan base.

Could be worse. They could be building cars that suck and nobody wants.

Thanks. All good adds. Aside from number 1, the rest should be relatively small, I'd think.

 

[BrotaryEngine]

It appears that you're comparing the production for all countries against only US sales. Wouldn't that make the gap pretty meaningless?

 

[markpilip]

It appears that you're comparing the production for all countries against only US sales. Wouldn't that make the gap pretty meaningless?

You're right. I don't have non-US sales here. Assume a relatively small number for Canada and, I imagine, there's a few exported to some other countries. Maybe another 1-2K?

Still ~20K missing.

 

[MyBroncoNotYours]

You're right. I don't have non-US sales here. Assume a relatively small number for Canada and, I imagine, there's a few exported to some other countries. Maybe another 1-2K?

Still ~20K missing.

There appears to be 2,500 New on CarGurus and although some could be in transit for orders I think they have to manually add to the website maybe linking more to be actually abandoned orders.

With the rail and convoy problems most people seem to be waiting a month to get their’s delivered. If we presume 3wks we’d be looking at 10k in transit on rail and convoy at any given time.

so that brings it down to about 7,500 on dirt mountain I would presume

 

[markpilip]

There appears to be 2,500 New on CarGurus and although some could be in transit for orders I think they have to manually add to the website maybe linking more to be actually abandoned orders.

With the rail and convoy problems most people seem to be waiting a month to get their’s delivered. If we presume 3wks we’d be looking at 10k in transit on rail and convoy at any given time.

so that brings it down to about 7,500 on dirt mountain I would presume

Yep, that could be reasonably close to the truth as well, although MAYBE some of the CarGurus Broncos are being syndicated from the dealership websites, so some of those might be double-counted with the ones already in transit.

I'll be the number is tickling 5 figures given what I've seen in the videos.

 

[Dan66]

Are the order banks open now?

 

[Dayton1984]

Are the order banks open now?

Not as far as I know, was advised by my dealer late summer

 

[22OBX]

Are the order banks open now?

No

 

[Jamiegla1]

first, thanks for taking the time to put this together. I live in excel so this is much easier to digest.

second, for my own lack of knowledge, does "sold" mean that the customer has taken their bronco? Does "produced" mean sitting on dirt/chip/mud mountain?

 

[Arrowbear Rider]

First of all great work on the spread sheets!

The first Broncos produced that were pre-production units that weren't salable I think is a bigger part than you may have accounted for. I read those not only included Jan-March (very little Production) but April, May and a good part of June's production that were not salable or other wised planned uses. You accounted for manikins, media and etc, but I think there is more broncos that were test mules on the road, or torn back apart for QC inspections and fine turning the line and production, or other testing/crash units and etc.

I lived on hwy 18 in the mountains and saw so many test vehicles, camo to ready to sell (all types) doing the same or similar test loop from sea level to the mountains and down to and across the desert and back; the magazines too. A job I'd love to have. Many other places around the county too like in CO, TFL taped a lot of cars testing there too. So there are many pre-production cars running around prior to release and after.

 

[ocbucks1]

I've been irritated by the recent push of my 1/17 build week EDD to July 26th. So I started tracking Ford's Bronco sales, using their official monthly updates.

Here's my worksheet, if interested, updated through April 2022:

Based on the data, for the first time in April, Ford started to eat into their inventory and sold more Broncos than produced (the red line is higher than the blue line).

The total difference of sold to produced Broncos went down for the first time in April 2022, with a difference of 31,443 fewer Broncos sold than produced.

Now the cause for the difference could be:

1. Broncos used for manikins
2. Broncos used for Bronco rodeo and other assorted BS
3. Broncos used for promotional purposes, i.e. lent out to YouTubers
4. Broncos abandoned to rot on Dirt Mountain OR being cannibalized for parts and therefore not able to be sold

Items 1-3 might be relatively small. If there's 3K Ford dealers in the US, manikin count would be about 6-7K. Maybe 200 for off-rodeo purposes? Maybe 400 total as it seems they may have recently refreshed the vehicles.

Maybe 50 press vehicles.

So perhaps 7.5K are unable to be sold. That leaves about 24K Broncos unaccounted for in category 4--rotting on Dirt Mountain, waiting for parts or being cannibalized for parts to keep the line running.

Thoughts on my lousy math?

When looked at as a percentage, Ford was stuck at about 64% of total Broncos produced as sold for four consecutive months. It was only in April when that percentage rose to 70%.

Still 30% of all the Broncos built haven't been sold.

Here's the cume totals:

So “produced” includes vehicles that are “in production”.
Vehicles sold basically equals vehicles production. None are not sold on reality. The biggest issue is the demand is higher than the supply creating secondary markup. Those could be dealer or ford profits if Ford could plan.

 

[markpilip]

first, thanks for taking the time to put this together. I live in excel so this is much easier to digest.

second, for my own lack of knowledge, does "sold" mean that the customer has taken their bronco? Does "produced" mean sitting on dirt/chip/mud mountain?

I’d have to go back to read the footnotes on Fords month reports but I believe that “sold” is bookable revenue so that would mean sold to dealer. “Produced” should mean completed vehicles but, clearly, it doesn’t given the demand for the vehicle.

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