Prediction: Ford US Bronco Sales Will Flatline in 2023

[Imaginary Friend]

Many good points here.

Well over a year ago I hit up Granger to order one, and was told it would be a while. The wait continued, and then all the order constraints and outright unavailability of certain things reared their heads, as well as seemingly constant price increases. We won't get into ADMs, like many others I'll never pay one so there's that. Still waiting to order the 2-door I want with the options I want, and not sure when it might happen.

As such, as a placeholder I ordered up a 2-door Rubi ragtop from Granger (the least I could do given how much I've pestered their people) in late winter and had it within six weeks. Ford isn't new to the automaker game, so I really question what is going on there.

I'm not sure demand will flatline, but I have to believe it will drop off. The market for these things, especially 2-doors, can't be unlimited after all. Still waiting, that Bronco would look cool in my shop with the other Ford products residing there, but I am liking the JL very much....

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[prospectfour]

Incredible to think about, but my analysis of Ford's own data indicates that they'll sell somewhere between 109 and 111K Broncos in the U.S. in 2023, compared to 117.1K units last year.

That's as much as 8K fewer units YoY, even though production has pretty much stabilized.

Although commodities remain a problem this isn't a production or availability problem. The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

Take a look at my analysis and let me know what I've missed or misconstrued. Here's the Google Sheet with the data and check out the May 2023 analysis tab to see my crude model.

There may be silver lining for some of the B6G members who have been waiting a long time: If the demand is softening and--as long as commodities are available--perhaps Ford will shift effort toward pre-ordered vehicles and away from the lot stock, Big Bend, mid, 4 dr softies that I believe they've been prioritizing.

My analysis of the May 2023 production and sales figures is over here.

I think you're right about demand softening. But long term Bronco sales will always be benchmarked against Wrangler sales. If you told the C-Suite at Ford the Bronco would sniff anything near a 1:1 parity with the Wrangler, that'd be a smash hit.

 

[markpilip]

It's almost as if a whole shitload of people had an opportunity to stockpile cash for 18-24 months and dropped their wads on toys near the end and now don't really need anything. I wonder what caused that?

A lot of businesses, including the one that I was running at the time, saw a big blip up from baseline during the pandemic.

Others, e.g. travel, which I also had a big hand in, saw a big blip down from baseline.

However the net change in economic activity, per US commerce, was basically flat. It was just share-shifted from certain classes of goods to others. Happens all the time, when you look at the historical data. Nothing particularly odd.

 

[markpilip]

I think you're right about demand softening. But long term Bronco sales will always be benchmarked against Wrangler sales. If you told the C-Suite at Ford the Bronco would sniff anything near a 1:1 parity with the Wrangler, that'd be a smash hit.

Oh yeah, they'd love parity with Jeep. But right now, Ford's back somewhere in 2011-2012 with regard to Jeep.

 

[markpilip]

The buyers are there but not with the huge ADM on top of the price increases Ford has made.

ADM dropping, at least here in VA. Seeing $3K-ish, unless it's something really in high demand.

Should be zero, I agree, but as the stocks build it'll come down and anybody will be able to buy off the lot at sticker.

My Ford dealer was pushing 0%/36 mo and 1.9%/72 mo Ford Credit on Escapes and Edges the other day, which I was surprised to see.

 

[Canyon Coolers]

Take a look at the model and the notes. I'm pretty sure it's a flatline at best this year, and will probably be a dip.

I updated the analysis tab in the model to comment on the formulae used to predict both production and sales numbers.

Granted, it's crude, but I think flatline would actually be a big win for Ford.

Economic trends aside, the hard core enthusiast is taken care of this year. There are still some potential gains with the more casual consumer that has been largely locked out of what is a hot market for them. So if your off, I would guess your off to the downside, like most economists usually are.

I could see small gains. I think Ford's best play, for actual profits, might be more with Bronco Raptors, and satisfy the demand for that unicorn, which is still unknown. Keep the enthusiasts engaged with some low volume specialty stuff. I would expect actual depreciation to happen and a market that more resembles business as usual.

The New Tacoma will shore up their customer base, specialty Jeep editions will help them, but their core product may still be ripe for poaching market share. I also think the Bronco product slots nicely between a Jeep and a Four Runner, So there may be some Four Runner market share to pick off still.

 

[djnemo]

Non-story here - Bronco is selling over 100k a year - that sounds pretty good! Doubtful it will ever approach Jeep Wrangler territory - probably settle in at between 100-125k a year for the next 5 years.

 

[60sIron]

Car makers have a target production volume with a narrow +/- band around that. You can't judge demand for a vehicle based on raw sales numbers increasing or decreasing as much as inventory levels and incentive spend. i.e. are there a lot of them sitting on the lot until they lay cash on the hood to move the metal. Sales can be flat, but demand might still be strong

 

[Rusty Sheckelford]

The units are there. The buyers, increasingly, are not.

No...they're not. My local dealer doesn't have a single 2 door bronco for sale. Aren't hardtops and manual still a constraint too? I can't even order the heritage trim I would like if I was to special order.

I literally can't get a real bronco right now.

 

[Bronco Dad]

As someone with a Bronco HE on order, I dont think they've solved their production issues. Originally schedule for 3/27, but now 7/24. What I do see, driving by many Ford dealers over the past few weeks. Tons of vehicles on lots, but very few to no Broncos. F150 and Explorers galore, but no Broncos. While sales may not be as strong, I'm not so sure it's a demand issue quite yet.

 

[Hossfire]

I think you're right about demand softening. But long term Bronco sales will always be benchmarked against Wrangler sales. If you told the C-Suite at Ford the Bronco would sniff anything near a 1:1 parity with the Wrangler, that'd be a smash hit.

Does that include Gladiator as well?

 

[Hossfire]

Bronco definitely had pent up demand. It will be interesting to see what the first refresh model year offers. I bet that the interior will get a significant upgrade. More tire/wheel options. Diesel and hybrid engine options.

 

[AustyPosty]

I think bronco sales will tank in 1996

 

[GoTigersGoBronco]

Bronco sales flat lined in 2022. It is not a product that will ever be a huge seller. Ford will finish 2023 roughly where they were in 2022.

Ranger+Bronco is capacity limited and they're not building any more ICE capacity anytime soon.

 

[BroncMe]

I'm on the board of an automotive data analytics company, making this thread a curiosity.

As a day two order who got a 2022 at price-protected MSRP, I'm thrilled with the Bronco's value and open-top, trail-friendly fun factor, echoed by literally everybody in my circle, including many jeep enthusiasts. It's stunning at $45K. Go price a Defender or even a Telluride unibody and compare the whole picture including the fun factor. So far away different.

Further, I'm a Toyota loyalist and the 4Runner didn't stack up either. The new Tundra/Sequoia platform is barely better, and I suspect the next 4Runner (same base global platform) might be similarly hamstrung. They've gotten lazy.

So is my happiness with the Bronco is evidence of a niche-market thinking?

Absolutely.

But who honestly cares about whether Ford sells 100K or 200K?

Like so many other threads on this forum, we should just be having more fun.

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