Six Deadliest Selections - But Why?

[hotrodjohn]

Advances in technology, advances in production methods, etc, etc
yet over 55 years ago Ford managed to build nearly 560,000 Mustangs in the 64 and a half, 65 model year.....

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[Bronc-O]

Another reason not to worry about delays until you hear your expectation in May.

I'm not going to put a lot of stock on that survey accurately depicting what people actually converted their orders into.

I have all of the sins with exception of leather (mgv). With a 7/14 mid day stamp I expect my Bronco around October. But I shall see come May.

It seems a lot of people have changed their minds on what they plan to order. That would make the survey pretty useless at this point.

 

[dgorsett]

Yup. Which is why some may not pan out to be as bad as expected if, at all, since the 75% conversion rate Ford claimed they could hold was a bit optimistic to most of us.

Yeah, but I bet Ford never really expected a 75% conversion. They are just hoping it becomes self fulfilling or at least not self limiting. If they came out and said they expected a 35% conversion rate, many reservation holders would begin having second thoughts. At 75% we're all saying "Hey, all these other folks couldn't be wrong....could they?"

I'll bet they have a pretty good idea of what the actual conversion rate will be and are planning accordingly, but still got caught off guard on how popular certain model/equipment is. I'll bet Sasquatch take caught them off guard (even after the free Auto went away) and has them scrambling for M210's in 4.7, tires/wheels and Bilsteins. Also, the 2.7L take after it was no longer $300 probably surprised them. Then on the 2dr, long term they probably plan to sell about as many as Wrangler 2 drs, so a lower production capacity is baked in, but initial enthusiast 2 dr orders are much higher, leaving them short of bodies and frames.

 

[mdonathan56]

Curious what an engine chip has to do with the LUX package??

The tech in the Lux package has more to do than an engine chip.

 

[mdonathan56]

It seems a lot of people have changed their minds on what they plan to order. That would make the survey pretty useless at this point.

It will be interesting to see what May holds when the build dates start showing up.

 

[ResidualGenius]

The tech in the Lux package has more to do than an engine chip.

That would make way more sense, being every engine has the chip.

 

[Bronc-O]

That would make way more sense, being every engine has the chip.

Every system in the vehicle relies on it's own control system, touch screen, infotainment, window controls, steering, brakes etc. All rely on chips to make these systems work.

 

[Rick Astley]

So I put together a list of potential reasons for the Six Deadliest list. I tried to identify things that are unique to each list item. Interested to see what the consensus is.

• Two‑Door - Webasto MIC Tops?

2-door has a massive change in content and body work. Demand is drastically higher than the supply ratio.

Jeep has been selling about 5:1 ratio for 4-door to 2-door Wranglers, and Bronco will most likely end up close to that. However, this is the launch of the product, so early-adopter purchases skew the figures beyond reckoning. If Ford had even assumed a 3:1 ratio, they will be short on 2-door materials given the issues with globally sourced just-in-time manufacturing here in 2020, 2021 and likely 2022.

They ordered parts to fill each of those at a certain rate and the demand was way higher for each than expected....setting up a supply shortage. That’s for every one of those. Nothing to do with the reasons you specified...just people ordering more of certain options than originally expected.

@Gamecock
Love the take here
But Ford came out with this list prior to any orders being placed.
Obviously they had guesses as to what people would order. But they didn’t know at the time they came out with this information.

Ford would have had to give production estimates about a year ago, then be subject to supply-side shortages and beset by parts supplier issues. Reservations would have had an impact but orders could not. Lead time on this volume is longer than you're implying.

 

[mdonathan56]

-door has a massive change in content and body work. Demand is drastically higher than the supply ratio.

Jeep has been selling about 5:1 ratio for 4-door to 2-door Wranglers, and Bronco will most likely end up close to that. However, this is the launch of the product, so early-adopter purchases skew the figures beyond reckoning. If Ford had even assumed a 3:1 ratio, they will be short on 2-door materials given the issues with globally sourced just-in-time manufacturing here in 2020, 2021 and likely 2022.

So if Bronco6g is what you would call the Enthusiast's sampling, we are running about 3:2 on the 4 to 2 door takes. Might the general population start to move that closer to the 3:1 ratio and get us back to the baseline projection?

 

[Rick Astley]

So if Bronco6g is what you would call the Enthusiast's sampling, we are running about 3:2 on the 4 to 2 door takes. Might the general population start to move that closer to the 3:1 ratio and get us back to the baseline projection?

We won't know what baseline ratio is until about MY23 or MY24 after the initial pent up demand smooths out and driveways are darkened by Broncos.

Some indicators of buyers automotive habits is the overall death of the 2-door vehicle across all segments. 4-Door yields greater profit to the OEM and people own more crap than ever that needs to be carried around.

If the Gladiator is any indication of purchasing habits, there will be a massive rush in the first year or two which satisfies almost all pent-up demand for a specialty vehicle, then it languishes on the lot well past it's sell-by date unless cash is thrown on the hood.

Bronco has massive demand right now and is the "hot product", Just as the '15 mustang had it's demand, or the Hellcat products sold substantially higher numbers than anticipated in their last few years (as they kept rolling out new products using the same motor). My guess is the mid-model refresh (MMR) for Bronco happens in MY24 (which will be "ahead of schedule" as determined by sales). But Ranger is going to throw a monkey wrench into that when it gets it's all new model for MY24 and Bronco then has the opportunity to switch motors to whatever Ranger gets to keep MAP in product parity.

Uhhhhh, so MY24 will tell us where Bronco sales ratio ends up? There will always be additional demand for 2-door off-road vehicles. Just not enough to expect a 3:1 ratio

 

[Bronc-O]

Some indicators of buyers automotive habits is the overall death of the 2-door vehicle across all segments. 4-Door yields greater profit to the OEM and people own more crap than ever that needs to be carried around.

Even Raptor will be Supercrew only.

 

[BennyBronco69]

It seems a lot of people have changed their minds on what they plan to order. That would make the survey pretty useless at this point.

Agreed. Not to mention that after glancing at the survey it's more about... would you buy this for X if given the choice.... it doesn't mean that in the end that's definitely what I'm converting my order to.

Also, just based on this site which I realize is a small % of total buyers, people have changed minds often.

 

[Thomas1984]

Another reason not to worry about delays until you hear your expectation in May.

I'm not going to put a lot of stock on that survey accurately depicting what people actually converted their orders into.

I have all of the sins with exception of leather (mgv). With a 7/14 mid day stamp I expect my Bronco around October. But I shall see come May.

I’m a July 17th reservation and I’m hoping June delivery early July, I’m #2 allocation at my dealer here in Canada, 2.7 v6 4 door lux badlands with 33” tires

 

[Used2jeep]

Sidewalls just have the word Goodyear twice.

2 times 2 times

 

[mdonathan56]

2 times 2 times

Have they taken the Territory label off?

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