3/27/21 Update - Hardtop Headliner, Allocation, & Price Protection

[Lilj4425]

This outcome is 100% Ford's choice. Had they stayed with doing them (mostly) in timestamp order instead of adding allocations into to mix (as of this morning Ford is still taking reservations for the 2021 with the offhand comment that some orders may be extended into 2022. Apparently they think that 'some' means 'more than half' aka 'most'.) and not removing/limiting the pledge to finish the reservations before dealer stock after 2021MY, all reservations would be completed by Spring 2022. Ford changed the rules after most people had reserved. These decisions were designed to reward Ford's best customers (Dealers are Ford's actual customers) and the people who thought that they had paid $100 to reserve a spot that would correspond to a reserved spot in the production line? Ford spit in their face when they changed the process. What will be interesting is when the dealers that benefited start screaming that they need Ford cash on the hood in late 2022 to sell all they ordered for their lots (after gorging on ADM In 2021) while reservations are still outstanding. Will Ford extend those rebates to those who ordered two years ago? Will they offer price protection for 2023 if any reservations conversions are still out there? At every turn Ford chooses to prioritize their big dealers over reservation holders, this is why the Broncos launch will spectacularly fail. The public relations optics will turn people away from Ford for a lifetime. The myopic decisions will cost ford tenfold in the long run is my guess.

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[Drex]

so you ended up with 203 21MY allocations. How many did you initially start with in January when ordering started? Just curious to see how much additional allocation you were allotted

With the other numbers given, would be around 166. My personal misunderstanding was when the dealers were saying they got about 30% of all their reservations as estimated allocations, they did not mean all reservations to the date the allocations were released. They meant only reservations pre 9/19 that is why they did not really care if they converted reservations after that. Even in Zach's first post here, he referred to all 2021 reservations (to his mind everyone knew that meant nothing after 9/19/20 was even considered, while to myself and I suspect a very large number of other non-dealers believed it was 30% of all of the 190kish reservations. Throws all the estimates I and others had right out the window. It is a bit of a shock for myself and those folks.

Dealers assumed everyone understood what the allocation calculation date and formula meant, but they forgot that the reservation holders had no idea of what was in the formula or the instructions on how to use it.

 

[ilbastarge]

I think it's been posted elsewhere, but 2.7, 2 door, sasquatch, lux package are the ones off the top of my head.

Leather and MID (late addition to the party as well), heavy duty bumper too.

 

[Lilj4425]

Leather and MID (late addition to the party as well), heavy duty bumper too.

So what isn’t delayed? The steering wheel?

 

[BroncoT]

If I get 2023 timing for my October order sent to me in May, I’ll likely cancel my order. Granger has been great, I don’t blame them. 200 out of 1300 is a very bad sign and I think I made a mistake canceling my local 9/19 order.

 

[ilbastarge]

The OP made it pretty clear in the first post... they have 1300 reservations, and expect 200 allocation this year, and maybe double that next year, maybe more. Optimistically, if they get 200 this year, and 600 next year, that’s still 500 people with reservations that won’t get a vehicle until 2023... and that’s the optimistic calculation.

What if they get 200 this year, and only 400 next year? That only covers half their reservations! If they get another 400 in 2023, then there are still 100 people who have a Granger reservation/order (currently) who won’t yet have a Bronco at the beginning of 2024.

The bright side is that those remaining people might have the ability to save more money and they might then be able to have seen and ridden in one or two or three. Plus - there might even be a more environmentally friendly Bronco available then!

That would be wonderful news!

 

[Drex]

So you canceled your reservation/order then... cool!

Not at all

 

[Drex]

Nah, no hate, just stating the facts. More sad at the disrespect Ford decided to display to the reservation holders as a whole, nothing to do with Granger or any other dealer.

 

[Drex]

So what isn’t delayed? The steering wheel?

Well, the heated one anyway...

 

[Cheshire]

Zach@Granger

My wife has a mid October reservation and was never contacted about ordering. I assumed you were not contacting post 9/18 reservations yet, but based on the language in this post, I'm not sure.

I want to make sure her order doesn't (didn't) fall through the cracks. Will her order have the 99 code and will you be reaching out to her when it's time to place MY22 orders?

 

[Cheshire]

Lol.. my dealer is fine thanks. People can order from whoever they want! I'm sure Granger is awesome! It definitely seems like it, and a stand up Dealership! I was just saying that with 1300 orders and only a 200 allocation this year, Zach thinks 800 next year, which feels really high to me... And I do indeed feel bad for those that are literally going to be waiting 2-3years for a bronco. For a 3%-4% savings.... I would be willing to pay mrsp if it meant this summer for the exact build I want. I mean I'm not paying mrsp anyways, and I won't have to worry about it or deal with a payment... So that changes things for me a bit. If you're waiting to save for a DP or the discount that's up to you. But 3years?! Nope. I feel that tons will be cancelled once they find out years of wait. Which may help the others get theirs in 2 years instead of worse. Hope for the best.

Yup, this is why I moved my reservation from Stephens to a local dealer. My very early 7/14 reservation was 72/70 on their pre-order MY21 allocations. Switching got me right in the middle of my local dealer's MY21 allocation. In the end, it was much more important to me to get my Bronco early than to save a few bucks.

 

[ronstar]

Thanks to Zach for explaining all of this so that even I can understand it.

The math makes sense.

1300 res (minus +/- 100 who couldn't be contacted) = 1200
minus +/- 200 2021 allocation
= about 1000 remaining orders post 2021
Zach figures only 65% of these will go through with their order - so that is 650 remaining
And he figures that they can get all of those out in 2022 if their 2022 allocation is that high.

Looks possible.

But the math doesn't address the commodities problem. We have been getting a lot of signals from Ford that shows that the most popular items (sas, 2.7 L, chips, tops) will subject builds to further delays. So until the commodities issues are resolved, Ford will produce as many Broncos as they can with the parts that they have - and many will go to dealer stock. "Commodities issues" will continue be Ford's answer to the cause of late deliveries. And that answer has been acceptable to reservation holders so far. So look for delays to continue.

So getting a timely delivery of our Broncos isn't as much dependent on Granger's allocation as it is on Ford's ability to produce.

 

[ausherpharmd]

Zach@Granger

My wife has a mid October reservation and was never contacted about ordering. I assumed you were not contacting post 9/18 reservations yet, but based on the language in this post, I'm not sure.

I want to make sure her order doesn't (didn't) fall through the cracks. Will her order have the 99 code and will you be reaching out to her when it's time to place MY22 orders?

You should probably DM him. I think they've contacted everyone.

 

[Espy]

The public relations optics will turn people away from Ford for a lifetime.

People today are not as brand loyal as other generations (my parents’). My dad and his family drove nothing but Ford; my wife’s parents were strictly GM (Olds and Chevy) until a Lexus as the final car.

Now people buy what they like. Ford will be just fine in the long run.

 

[GoldenKnight]

The OP made it pretty clear in the first post... they have 1300 reservations, and expect 200 allocation this year, and maybe double that next year, maybe more. Optimistically, if they get 200 this year, and 600 next year, that’s still 500 people with reservations that won’t get a vehicle until 2023... and that’s the optimistic calculation.

What if they get 200 this year, and only 400 next year? That only covers half their reservations! If they get another 400 in 2023, then there are still 100 people who have a Granger reservation/order (currently) who won’t yet have a Bronco at the beginning of 2024.

Ford has stated several times they plan to deliver retail orders before dealer stock. They'll be commodity issues etc that lead to some Broncos showing up on lots before retail orders I'm sure, but overwhelmingly I think we'll see ever retail bronco that can be produced delivered before they just start flooding dealers.

I don't see any way there's anyone taking delivery in MY23 who has a reservation now unless there's a catastrophic issue with production. Once they're up and running they're going to push out a huge number of vehicles. It should be 150k+ based on #s mentioned, full capacity can reach 1k/day. If that's true every Ford executive will say screw the Ranger for 4 months and build every Bronco you can. They can handle being months behind on that vehicle, it'll be much worse if they're 3 years behind on Bronco production.

If people are getting estimates that far out they'll just walk onto a dealer and purchase one. There shouldn't be any with MY22s available. Granger is also an outlier with the massive number of orders they have. I doubt there's many places across the US who ended up with over 1,000 orders. If they're not getting their orders no one else is either.

They may even be more likely to get their vehicles delivered since the amount delivered for MY21 will dictate how many they get after that as well. They're already getting almost 20% more than their original estimate. How many dealers probably got less because of their conversion %? If Granger is struggling to get orders delivered that's going to be happening at every dealership, and it will probably be worse elsewhere. It's all a % game.

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