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Allocation/Reservation Summary and "Real" World Example

Kris87

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No, absolutely not. It stays with that dealer, in the order bank, and is filled whenever allocation comes available. Could be a different model year, or could just be a while. It never is lost, unless commodities just aren't available. I have seen some get cancelled for that reason.
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No, absolutely not. It stays with that dealer, in the order bank, and is filled whenever allocation comes available. Could be a different model year, or could just be a while. It never is lost.
Can you comment on how often allocation is updated and/or distributed

Week by week?
Once a Month
One time in february after ford gets all the initial orders
 
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If you are saying that some dealers wont be able to fulfill all their orders, my question is this, WHERE DOES THAT ORDER GO? Im trying to play this out. What exactly happens at that point? Is that customer just, S#!T out of luck?
I think this ties to the biggest pending question... When and how often does ford allocate builds to dealers.
 

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Can you comment on how often allocation is updated and/or distributed

Week by week?
Once a Month
One time in february after ford gets all the initial orders
In this case, we were told that after the window for converted orders were closed, we'd be given our total allocation number. That's all I know. I don't know how it will be from month to month after that.
 

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In this case, we were told that after the window for converted orders were closed, we'd be given our total allocation number. That's all I know. I don't know how it will be from month to month after that.
That's the hard part to figure out. So Ford says still that: "All reservations will be completed before production of stock units begins."...but if your dealer doesn't get allocated enough in their allocation number to cover all reservation orders they hold....what happens to those other orders? Does Ford do a second round of allocations to fill reservations prior to stock orders?
 

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In this case, we were told that after the window for converted orders were closed, we'd be given our total allocation number. That's all I know. I don't know how it will be from month to month after that.
So say you get 100 reservations, and then 75 orders from those reservations. Ford could come back and say OK, you get 50 Broncos???? And those 25 customers that reserved, built, ordered and probably put a deposit or down payment on their RESERVED Bronco, are told what, exactly?
 
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In this case, we were told that after the window for converted orders were closed, we'd be given our total allocation number. That's all I know. I don't know how it will be from month to month after that.

My interpretation:
If there are 150k reservations
say 100k convert to orders
divvy up between 3000 dealers (weighted)
so say dealer A) gets 500 reservations, is High Volume, and in jeep market
they get a higher "score" than dealer b with 500 reservations but low volume

how those scores are exactly applied seems to be a mystery, but if they were max and min for volume and jeep market...hypothetically dealer a would have twice as many orders to enter into build weeks than dealer b
 
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So say you get 100 reservations, and then 75 orders from those reservations. Ford could come back and say OK, you get 50 Broncos???? And those 25 customers that reserved, built, ordered and probably put a deposit or down payment on their RESERVED Bronco, are told what, exactly?
That their build date is later?
 

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That their build date is later?
But Ford said they will have already given customers an estimate of when their order will be delivered.
 
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Speculation warning

if it were only 2 dealers in the universe.
and there were 1000 reservations converted to orders
and both dealers got 500 reservations converted to orders
and ford allocates 750 broncos total (production limits maybe)
450 to dealer a
300 to dealer b

dealer a is able to go deeper into their order bank and serve later reservations
both dealers have to wait for next allocation
all orders eventually get filled in next rounds
 
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But Ford said they will have already given customers an estimate of when their order will be delivered.
Good point,
Again makes me wonder if ford will allocate all orders (as of feb) at once, or in sets, and even if in sets the later reservations holders could still get "estimates"
 
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But Ford said they will have already given customers an estimate of when their order will be delivered.
Now that i think about it
Why wouldn't they know the estimated time?
Ford knows what dealers have what orders, and the basic throughput for each dealer based on the allocation they would have granted them
 
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Kris87

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So say you get 100 reservations, and then 75 orders from those reservations. Ford could come back and say OK, you get 50 Broncos???? And those 25 customers that reserved, built, ordered and probably put a deposit or down payment on their RESERVED Bronco, are told what, exactly?
Don't know. Probably that they'll be receiving one when more allocation becomes available. And then tell them a Q1, Q2 into 2022 possibly.

But your scenario is going to happen. We already know that.
 

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I'm not sure exactly where to start.

I agree with @Kris87 that it would be helpful if dealers posted their allocation numbers (or at least percentage of orders they can fill in 2021) and are forthcoming with customers about how many reservations they are allocated once reservations have been converted to orders. It doesn't do the customer any favors to set expectations that cannot be met and to make sure everyone is one board with the information they know.

Compared to the "normal" allocation process, this reservation system is very customer centered, while they have deviated from what they originally said they would do, in most instances they will be able to fill the average dealership, who has the average reservation count in the average market according to their size in an orderly fashion.

Obviously at this point, we don't fit that mold anymore. This is what motivated us to make the move we did starting October 1st. At this point, it all comes down to a math problem in my opinion. The biggest factor in all of that comes down to how many of the overall reservation count that Ford dealership end up converting to orders.

For ease of math we'll assume 200,000 reservations
200,000 x .75 = 150.000 Orders
200,000 x .50 = 100,000 Orders
200,000 x .30 = 60,000 Orders

As you can see if Ford can produce 10,000 Broncos monthly, we're talking about 9 months difference in time from 75% of the orders filled to 30% of the orders filled. That is the biggest question that none of us know, not us, Not Ford, not anyone at this point. How many of these reservations will turn into orders? If Ford fills at 75% some reservation holders will be waiting until this time next year potentially to see their Bronco. On the opposite end, if the conversion happens at 30% Ford will have 6 months of sold orders to produce and start building stock much sooner than anyone anticipates currently.

That is why our strategy as a dealership was to get involved with the enthusiasts here, because they tend to be the more passionate subset of customers and we feel like we'll have a higher conversion rate of reservations to orders than the average dealership nationally.

That is also why we made the aggressive offer starting on October 1st. At this point 1/3rd of our total reservations have an October 1st or later timestamp of customers who chose to take advantage of the $2000 off invoice promotion. This is beneficial to those customers because they will receive AMAZING pricing on the New Bronco, but it is also more beneficial to our early adopting customers because it will help us generate a greater allocation overall and move up our orders of the other 2/3rds who would like to have their Bronco more quickly.

It has been referenced multiple times here that 50% of the allocation is based upon reservations. So assuming that Granger Ford ranks on a 0 in market area and a 0 on sales data, Our thoughts were if we can get 50% of our customers who are willing to wait, and would like to take advantage of the October savings, we should receive more than enough allocation to fill our customers needs even at the 75% conversion rate to orders. If its 50% we should be able to more than fulfill their expectations and at 30% all this speculation is moot. There is a lot of October left for people to take advantage of the $2000 off invoice offer and I'm confident we'll continue to grow that 1/3rd as the month moves on.

-Zach
Interesting. I hadn't looked at it from this perspective. How do you think commodity constraints play into production timing? Before this post, it seems to me that would be the hardest problem Ford will face in producing this many retail orders. We know we face commodity constraints with stock orders, having this many variations (retail orders vs stock orders) would make that worse, wouldn't it? Or would it make it better because they can tell the suppliers what they actually need instead of forecasting need?
 

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Did a search but did not find anything as to whether or not anyone has been able to get the specific timestamp for their Bronco Reservation.
I called Ford Marketing and the dealer where my reservation is now assigned..... no luck with either Ford or the Dealer.... both say they can only see the date of my reservation but not any specific timestamp.
Has anyone been provided the specific timestamp for their reservation? If so how did you obtain it?
(I am not talking about the date and time of your confirmation email that Ford sent after you made your reservation.)
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