Allocation/Reservation Summary and "Real" World Example

[72roadster]

You never answered my question:
So you do not think that Ford is going to allocate all of their production capacity to reservations? Because that is the only way your constant pot stirring scenario comes to fruition.

What previous statement has implied this, I haven't interpreted anything I found to suggest this?
I understood the info presented to suggest that the allotment would still be for reservation holders, just maybe other large volume dealers

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[Kris87]

You never answered my question:
So you do not think that Ford is going to allocate all of their production capacity to reservations? Because that is the only way your constant pot stirring scenario comes to fruition.

Yes, all 2021 Broncos produced will be used to fill orders. Will every dealer get 50% of their converted orders? No, they won't and it won't be close in some cases.

Is that what you want to hear?

 

[72roadster]

Hiding info that important is what gives many dealers the bad reputation they deserve.

Ford seems to be helping a lot with hiding this

 

[Gloff]

Frankly, this is all speculative until we start getting delivery timeframes in Q1 2021. However, I've added my comments below.

I think I speak for most people here when I say that I am sick and f'n tired of the pot stirring when it comes to people receiving/not receiving a Bronco depending on where they reserved and how many reservations said dealership has.

Bottom line, if you reserved a Bronco you will get one. It may not be a MY2021 due to production laws. It may be a MY2022. And you may not receive it until the first month of 2022 because of when you reserved but you will get a Bronco.

The reality is, Ford had 150k reservations in the first 2 weeks. Assuming the 75% conversion rate thats about 112k orders. What people have to understand is it will take the better part of 2021 to build just those units assuming Job 1 is in May. So the idea people need to get used to is, that just because you reserved in the first few days does not mean your Bronco will roll off the assembly line in the first few months of production. The sheer volume of the first few days reservation numbers (converted to orders), coupled with manufacturing limits, mean we all need to get used to the idea of a latter than expected Bronco. It won't have anything to do with dealership allocations.

This is the reality.

I agree, everyone who converts to an order will get one eventually. We won't know exactly how it all impacts production until Ford has the build data in their hands. I've said it from the beginning. Trim level and option content are going to play a huge role in production. Commodities are going to be the hard part, especially with high take rates of certain features/options. Ford already said that they will be able to give delivery estimates in "Late Q1". I assume this is because order conversions will be Dec-January, and they'll have the information they need to put the plan in place for production.

Ford has this to say:

In early 2021, your Ford Dealer will be able to provide an approximate date for the delivery of your Bronco. Initial Bronco 2 and 4-door deliveries are targeted to begin in June 2021.

This verbage is still live on the Reservation FAQ which is as Blue Bronco said:
Will reservations be fulfilled in the order placed?

Reservations will be fulfilled in approximately the same order received, based on final ordering and production of similarly configured Broncos. All reservations will be completed before production of stock units begins.

There's also the email Ford sent out: https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...ur-bronco-and-ford-questions.5860/post-218439

FWIW there's also this on the FAQ:
When will I take delivery of my vehicle?

You will be able to order your Bronco in late 2020. Production and deliveries will begin spring 2021. Once actual delivery times may vary based on vehicle model and configuration selected, residency and demand. Once your vehicle is scheduled, you will receive further notification.

I read that as the Model/Configuration will play the biggest role, followed by residency, then demand. Knowing Ford's transportation as I do, I think your location has more to do with time from factory lot to dealership as opposed when they're going to build it. We'll know after conversions are done and we start seeing delivery estimates.

FYI: It has been stated by Ford before, and was the case with Ranger, that once your VIN is created that it will take approximately 8-10 weeks for delivery of that vehicle. (Baring unforeseen circumstances, delays in parts or delivery)

Sorta. The VIN is generated when it goes from Unscheduled-Clean to Scheduled to Week. I've seen cars change that status get scheduled the following week, and I've seen cars get scheduled a month after.
I once put a Mustang order in and from order to delivered to the dealership was a couple days shy of seven weeks. I've also had my fair share of 16 week order to delivery times too. Bronco will be way different than any other model line, and you can throw the normal timeframes out the window.

And once your VIN is created, you'll basically not be able to make changes to the build. I have heard that if a customer is able to get their dealership to actually change the build that they discard that VIN, the dealer gets in trouble for cancelling an order, and the customer goes back in the hopper for the next batch of VIN's to be created.

Again, mostly. You can still get some minor changes through without fully canceling the order and starting over. (Six, as I found out in the link I posted) Usually, once the car is scheduled to week, you have to get your region rep involved and have them call the scheduler to change something. Typically, you can't change much other than the color after it's scheduled. For those interested, here's a nice write up on the build process on a typical model line: https://blueovalforums.com/forums/index.php?/topic/63667-ford-vehicle-ordering-scheduling-process/

Thankfully the B&P will go live on October 13th which will give people plenty of time to have their build, and finance projections, solidified so they are ready to piss or get off the pot the moment the dealership calls on them to convert their reservation to an order.

I have not heard a specific date from any official sources, other than "mid-October".

Edit: Edited for clarity; italicized information directly from Ford.

 

[jonwithanelcamino]

Frankly, this is all speculative until we start getting delivery timeframes in Q1 2021. However, I've added my comments below.


I agree, everyone who converts to an order will get one eventually. We won't know exactly how it all impacts production until Ford has the build data in their hands. I've said it from the beginning. Trim level and option content are going to play a huge role in production. Commodities are going to be the hard part, especially with high take rates of certain features/options. Ford already said that they will be able to give delivery estimates in "Late Q1". I assume this is because order conversions will be Dec-January, and they'll have the information they need to put the plan in place for production.

Ford has this to say:

In early 2021, your Ford Dealer will be able to provide an approximate date for the delivery of your Bronco. Initial Bronco 2 and 4-door deliveries are targeted to begin in June 2021.

This verbage is still live on the Reservation FAQ which is as Blue Bronco said:
Will reservations be fulfilled in the order placed?

Reservations will be fulfilled in approximately the same order received, based on final ordering and production of similarly configured Broncos. All reservations will be completed before production of stock units begins.

There's also the email Ford sent out: https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...ur-bronco-and-ford-questions.5860/post-218439

FWIW there's also this on the FAQ:
When will I take delivery of my vehicle?

You will be able to order your Bronco in late 2020. Production and deliveries will begin spring 2021. Once actual delivery times may vary based on vehicle model and configuration selected, residency and demand. Once your vehicle is scheduled, you will receive further notification.

I read that as the Model/Configuration will play the biggest role, followed by residency, then demand. Knowing Ford's transportation as I do, I think your location has more to do with time from factory lot to dealership as opposed when they're going to build it. We'll know after conversions are done and we start seeing delivery estimates.



Sorta. The VIN is generated when it goes from Unscheduled-Clean to Scheduled to Week. I've seen cars change that status get scheduled the following week, and I've seen cars get scheduled a month after.
I once put a Mustang order in and from order to delivered to the dealership was a couple days shy of seven weeks. I've also had my fair share of 16 week order to delivery times too. Bronco will be way different than any other model line, and you can throw the normal timeframes out the window.



Again, mostly. You can still get some minor changes through without fully canceling the order and starting over. Usually, once the car is scheduled to week, you have to get your region rep involved and have them call the scheduler to change something. Typically, you can't change much other than the color after it's scheduled. For those interested, here's a nice write up on the build process on a typical model line: https://blueovalforums.com/forums/index.php?/topic/63667-ford-vehicle-ordering-scheduling-process/


I have not heard a specific date from any official sources, other than "mid-October".

Thanks for your opinion based on your experience and role.

 

[Micklimey1972]

How can it not even be close if Ford says they will complete all reservations before dealer stock. Seems to me that all will get converted at some point before dealer stock is done, or are you saying Ford is lying to the masses? Regardless how they allocate the order Ford said they would all be produced. Seems like it is just the order in which they will built is the ongoing question. Granger has been transparent on everything. So I’ve been told our orders are fine. Will it be first off the line, probably not but I for one will gladly wait. To say that a dealership won’t get 50% of their converted orders seems either misleading or completely false by you. Either you are right and Ford is full of it or the other way around.

 

[Bronc-O]

How can it not even be close if Ford says they will complete all reservations before dealer stock. Seems to me that all will get converted at some point before dealer stock is done, or are you saying Ford is lying to the masses? Regardless how they allocate the order Ford said they would all be produced. Seems like it is just the order in which they will built is the ongoing question. Granger has been transparent on everything. So I’ve been told our orders are fine. Will it be first off the line, probably not but I for one will gladly wait. To say that a dealership won’t get 50% of their converted orders seems either misleading or completely false by you. Either you are right and Ford is full of it or the other way around.

At some point yes, but when will that be? I saw a post yesterday where someone asked if 2022 really means just that. Ford has stated they expect a 75% reservation to order conversion. Many here seem to think it will be closer to 50% conversion. Sounds like someone with a little more inside knowledge than most of us is simply agreeing with what the masses of this forum are saying.

 

[broncoj11]

I'd say anyone that first week should feel very safe regardless of dealer size. I think the further the date out progresses, then the dealer size starts to matter.

Now if 1000 people with first week reservations all transferred to one dealer, then I'd be worried.

if we reserved during the first week should we get our bronco in say july?

 

[72roadster]

How can it not even be close if Ford says they will complete all reservations before dealer stock. Seems to me that all will get converted at some point before dealer stock is done, or are you saying Ford is lying to the masses? Regardless how they allocate the order Ford said they would all be produced. Seems like it is just the order in which they will built is the ongoing question. Granger has been transparent on everything. So I’ve been told our orders are fine. Will it be first off the line, probably not but I for one will gladly wait. To say that a dealership won’t get 50% of their converted orders seems either misleading or completely false by you. Either you are right and Ford is full of it or the other way around.

May be able to cover them eventually. Eventually being the key word.

Again i don't think anyone is saying they won't fulfill the orders or that they would start on dealer stock. It's a matter of when and what order they will fulfill the orders. and if bigger dealers are going to fulfill more orders out of band because of this possible allocation scheme. If people are fine waiting, great. But we still have no insight into how ford is going to to do their "voodoo"

I have full faith that Granger is doing right by its customers and providing an amazing deal. I will probably take them up on it regardless, or maybe Stephens depending on transportation.

But the news on Sept 25 definitely makes it seems like there is a much different way each dealer is getting allocated broncos to fulfill orders that is more complicated than prior to Sept25 .

Even granger has at least acknowledged this

it is not the old way of allocating vehicles it is based on how many reservations convert to orders...
The more ordered conversions the more allocation is the simplest way of putting it...

They have a small calculation in the formula for Jeep and 4 Runner sales in the area...

That is all I can say on that...

trying to find link to press release

 

[jayhawkco]

Like others have said above. Ford, if they know what's good for them, will fulfill all reservations before they build for dealer stock. If they don't, no one will ever put down a reservation with Ford again since this is their biggest rollout since '65. Granted, commodity issues might cause some headaches (I'm particularly worried about 'Squatching), but if I see 30 Broncos for sale on my local lot before I receive mine, especially if they're a similar build, Ford will not be getting any of my business in the future and I will raise as much hell as one can.

Chris

 

[den_jkur]

trying to find link to press release

See below:

"Dealer allocation will depend on a retailer's market size, previous SUV sales performance, the number of reservations tied to their store and competitive off-road registrations in their market, LaNeve said."

https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...ons-ordering-dates-build-date-estimates.5793/

 

[Zach@Granger]

I'm not sure exactly where to start.

I agree with @Kris87 that it would be helpful if dealers posted their allocation numbers (or at least percentage of orders they can fill in 2021) and are forthcoming with customers about how many reservations they are allocated once reservations have been converted to orders. It doesn't do the customer any favors to set expectations that cannot be met and to make sure everyone is one board with the information they know.

Compared to the "normal" allocation process, this reservation system is very customer centered, while they have deviated from what they originally said they would do, in most instances they will be able to fill the average dealership, who has the average reservation count in the average market according to their size in an orderly fashion.

Obviously at this point, we don't fit that mold anymore. This is what motivated us to make the move we did starting October 1st. At this point, it all comes down to a math problem in my opinion. The biggest factor in all of that comes down to how many of the overall reservation count that Ford dealership end up converting to orders.

For ease of math we'll assume 200,000 reservations
200,000 x .75 = 150.000 Orders
200,000 x .50 = 100,000 Orders
200,000 x .30 = 60,000 Orders

As you can see if Ford can produce 10,000 Broncos monthly, we're talking about 9 months difference in time from 75% of the orders filled to 30% of the orders filled. That is the biggest question that none of us know, not us, Not Ford, not anyone at this point. How many of these reservations will turn into orders? If Ford fills at 75% some reservation holders will be waiting until this time next year potentially to see their Bronco. On the opposite end, if the conversion happens at 30% Ford will have 6 months of sold orders to produce and start building stock much sooner than anyone anticipates currently.

That is why our strategy as a dealership was to get involved with the enthusiasts here, because they tend to be the more passionate subset of customers and we feel like we'll have a higher conversion rate of reservations to orders than the average dealership nationally.

That is also why we made the aggressive offer starting on October 1st. At this point 1/3rd of our total reservations have an October 1st or later timestamp of customers who chose to take advantage of the $2000 off invoice promotion. This is beneficial to those customers because they will receive AMAZING pricing on the New Bronco, but it is also more beneficial to our early adopting customers because it will help us generate a greater allocation overall and move up our orders of the other 2/3rds who would like to have their Bronco more quickly.

It has been referenced multiple times here that 50% of the allocation is based upon reservations. So assuming that Granger Ford ranks on a 0 in market area and a 0 on sales data, Our thoughts were if we can get 50% of our customers who are willing to wait, and would like to take advantage of the October savings, we should receive more than enough allocation to fill our customers needs even at the 75% conversion rate to orders. If its 50% we should be able to more than fulfill their expectations and at 30% all this speculation is moot. There is a lot of October left for people to take advantage of the $2000 off invoice offer and I'm confident we'll continue to grow that 1/3rd as the month moves on.

-Zach

 

[j_marinelli]

FYI: It has been stated by Ford before, and was the case with Ranger, that once your VIN is created that it will take approximately 8-10 weeks for delivery of that vehicle. (Baring unforeseen circumstances, delays in parts or delivery)

And once your VIN is created, you'll basically not be able to make changes to the build. I have heard that if a customer is able to get their dealership to actually change the build that they discard that VIN, the dealer gets in trouble for cancelling an order, and the customer goes back in the hopper for the next batch of VIN's to be created.

Thankfully the B&P will go live on October 13th which will give people plenty of time to have their build, and finance projections, solidified so they are ready to piss or get off the pot the moment the dealership calls on them to convert their reservation to an order.

 

[Kris87]

Great post @Zach@Granger .

I will say, if a dealer was smart, they'd know how to convert 100% of their reservations. I think I'll be really close to that. I know the penalty% too and feel good about the few defectors I can't.

 

[Wanted33]

I would add to this the fact that Ford has recommended dealerships place orders by timestamp, but it's not a requirement. So if your dealership shows preference to friends, family, golf buddies, regular customers, or people ordering higher trims, that will also affect your delivery. We've already seen dealership who took reservations over the phone and then did not put them in the system in the order they received them - some orders (mine) were held for a day, and another person on this forum had theirs held at the same dealership for three days. This leads me to believe that some dealerships will be employing similar tactics when it comes time to place orders.

@sjp The way of the world Susan. As the old saying goes, "It's not what you, it's who you know." Sadly, I know no one, so I expect to get mine the day before the state takes my drivers license away.

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