Best guess on the 165k reservations turning into orders

[Garemlin]

Not only will a good percentage of reservations not turn into orders. I'm sure quite a few will walk away after ordering or from the final sale because of delays in production, life changes during the long wait, or dealers dicking them at the last minute.

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[Squatch]

Well we can always come up with another 500 posts on why we didn't get the build & price site "by September", LOL.

The 21st night of September? Do you rememb-ah?

 

[Carolina Jim]

I'm sure quite a few will walk away after ordering

No skin in the game

Will Stephens Auto require a deposit for the Bronco ORDERS.

• No. We are satisfied with the $100 reservation fee.

 

[The Driving Viking]

I don't think we'll have a real grasp on how many actually order until after December and we get an estimated delivery time. Hopefully Ford keeps us in the loop on how many orders where filled. If i had to guess I believe at least 135k will still go though with it. We still have 4 more months of reservations and I believe most Bronco reservations are Bronco enthusiasts.

 

[Drex]

My conjecture from before the reveal was in the upper 30% range, call it... 37%. The survey pricing leads me to believe that I was high. People have enjoyed being part of the hype, essentially they paid $100 to be a part of it (and to get on a dealer contact list, perhaps shaving a couple months of their wait). Small potatoes as it were, however I am now leaning lower as people get over it and some will re-evaluate their needs/wants. I would say a third order one (with perhaps 5% hoping they will be able to swing the cost when it arrives in ten months who will back out and leave dealers with some stock vehicles to sell at time of delivery. You can hear a few of them talking about extra time to get a down payment in quite a few threads, not all of them will bail though)

These things will weigh slightly more than a 4X4 F-150, with (assuming the internal ratios of the 10-speed are unchanged) lower gearing and the EPA numbers will dissuade another couple percent (my estimate is 17/22/20 in the real World, couple ticks higher on paper), in the end; call it 25% when it is all said and done. (the balance of the third going to dealers for retail sale)

At a guess; average of 5000 a week with a few hiccups and those ~55000 trucks will be on the lots and in people's hands by Thanksgiving.

When the B&P is available, it will be more clear.

-Drex

PS; I was reading that the profit for Ford was on the order of $7500 a unit (have zero clue if that is true or not), if true, I expect a Bronco will be sitting with a big pile of cash on the hood in less than two years from launch.

 

[Gamecock]

My conjecture from before the reveal was in the upper 30% range, call it... 37%. The survey pricing leads me to believe that I was high. People have enjoyed being part of the hype, essentially they paid $100 to be a part of it (and to get on a dealer contact list, perhaps shaving a couple months of their wait). Small potatoes as it were, however I am now leaning lower as people get over it and some will re-evaluate their needs/wants. I would say a third order one (with perhaps 5% hoping they will be able to swing the cost when it arrives in ten months who will back out and leave dealers with some stock vehicles to sell at time of delivery. You can hear a few of them talking about extra time to get a down payment in quite a few threads, not all of them will bail though)

These things will weigh slightly more than a 4X4 F-150, with (assuming the internal ratios of the 10-speed are unchanged) lower gearing and the EPA numbers will dissuade another couple percent (my estimate is 17/22/20 in the real World, couple ticks higher on paper), in the end; call it 25% when it is all said and done. (the balance of the third going to dealers for retail sale)

At a guess; average of 5000 a week with a few hiccups and those ~55000 trucks will be on the lots and in people's hands by Thanksgiving.

When the B&P is available, it will be more clear.

-Drex

PS; I was reading that the profit for Ford was on the order of $7500 a unit (have zero clue if that is true or not), if true, I expect a Bronco will be sitting with a big pile of cash on the hood in less than two years from launch.

I did see that $7,500 profit estimate. My guess is that it’s a little higher, but not sure. I do think analysts are projecting about 125,000 first year sales of Bronco...giving Ford a Billion in new profit. That number seems very realistic considering Jeep does 240,000 Wranglers per year...Toyota sold 60,000 FJs in its first year...Bronco should at least double that FJ figure, and do at least half what Wrangler normally does. That seems conservative. How many of those 125,000 sales come from reservations....maybe half?

 

[Edelfin]

I agree with the notion of impulse and wait playing a huge factor. A friend and I reserved at the same time. He has already canceled his after spending weeks thinking about how he couldn’t test drive the Bronco before ordering. It was a huge deal to him.

I kept mine. He says he’ll buy one if mine drives well. I guess I’m a guinea pig.

 

[Dracheo]

Once B&P launches, I'll get to see if it's really feasible for me to get the Bronco I want. The Base is already twice as much as I've ever spent on a vehicle, and it just doesn't have what I want.

Once I've confirmed that I can get the Bronco I want, then I want to see if my delivery estimate will even make 2021. Reserved kinda late. If my order won't be available until 2022, anyway, I might just wait to see what options are available on that model.

As of now, I do fully intend to go through with my reservation, though.

 

[LoneStarBridger]

With all the Ford hype on having 165,000 reservations, what's your best guess on how many will actually turn into orders.
Personally I have a FE and Wildtrak reserved, which I'll only be ordering one.
My wife has a FE reserved and is 50/50 on if she wants a Bronco or other vehicles.
From being on this forum. I've heard alot of members also have two reservation. My best guess is the number will be going down from 165 000 reservations to approximately 100,000 orders. What's your best guess?

i imagine I’m like many. Made reservations at two different dealerships. My thinking was if first dealerships tries any funny business on price, then I use second reservation. I’m not sure this logic even works, as I’ve seen a lot of talk one can change trim or dealership, I figured it’s worth the $100 to have another option. But I’m only buying one from my two reservations.

so I’ve got 37% conversion rate. However, I did buy stock in ford given this alleged $7500 in profit, AND if there is supply available on the ford lots, I think Ford makes a lot of sales.

 

[Edelfin]

Once B&P launches, I'll get to see if it's really feasible for me to get the Bronco I want. The Base is already twice as much as I've ever spent on a vehicle, and it just doesn't have what I want.

Once I've confirmed that I can get the Bronco I want, then I want to see if my delivery estimate will even make 2021. Reserved kinda late. If my order won't be available until 2022, anyway, I might just wait to see what options are available on that model.

As of now, I do fully intend to go through with my reservation, though.

Same. If I’m not getting mine until 2022, then I will most definitely wait until a newer/improved model is announced.

 

[pony2bronco]

I think a lot of you are probably close percentage wise of the conversions - but you're leaving out dealer stock in the production #s when it comes to wait time. I think Ford said they are going to be producing dealer stock at the same time as the orders (that or I read it here)

 

[Maxw64]

I think that the price may be much higher than a lot of us expected when all of the options are added. I believe for the average working person 40k is a pretty steep cost to enter the Bronco party. I make a pretty good living and 40k is my upper range to spend on a vehicle. I think the base may be too utilitarian for a lot of people to purchase just to stay within their budget. So with all that said I project a sale through rate of 30% coming from the reservations. I also think it depends on how greedy the dealerships will be. If they do not budge off MSRP or if they are asking more than MSRP the rate of purchase will dip to 25% in my opinion.

 

[Megawatt]

My guess is 60% of the reservations do not turn into orders. Things get real when you build your Bronco and are faced with a $50k price tag and the salesperson is asking for your signature and more deposit dollars it to start building your Bronco.

My understanding is some dealers will ask for $500 non refundable to start the build order come December. Ford is not going to just take the word of a customer to buy their dream Bronco next Summer. Some serious build money will be required.

No way there would be 165k reservations if the reservation deposit was non refundable. $100 refundable was a excellent way for Ford to generate excitement about the Bronco and see what kind of interest is out there early on.

 

[Tpmonahan]

My dealer has about 200 reservations he expects to sell 50. What happens to the other 150 is he able to order some of them for stock. Also quick question, when we place our order in December will we get an approximate delivery date?

 

[DrKennethNoisewater]

Not only will a good percentage of reservations not turn into orders. I'm sure quite a few will walk away after ordering or from the final sale because of delays in production, life changes during the long wait, or dealers dicking them at the last minute.

Good point. I plan to place an order no matter what, but I'm keeping in mind that I can back out at any point up until taking delivery. So if I get to the dealership, inspect it, drive it around and think for any reason that it's not a vehicle I want to commit that much money to, I'll walk.

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