Bronco Pricing Forecast

[jb56]

Hey Everyone! TL;DR - Do you think we'll see excess Bronco supply in the next year or two and whether we will see significant price drops in the new and lightly used Bronco market.

Longer version:

I'm very excited about my Bronco (Wildtrak, Area 51, Lux) to be delivered in a few weeks. Although I hope that we will love our Bronco and keep it for years I'm just slightly worried that we are going to see massive price drops in vehicles over the next year or so.

My dealer is selling a near-identical bronco for $13,000 over sticker, so as of right now, you'd think there's no chance of being very upside down in a bronco. And I'm not looking to flip mine.

It seems to me that there are a ton of used cars on the market and that Ford in particular is starting to produce way more Broncos. Two years ago and before the Pandemic, I never would have paid sticker price for a vehicle And although the Bronco is an awesome vehicle, paying $61,000 for it makes me a little uncomfortable.

I talked to a regional Ford rep and he said privately that he thought the pricing on Broncos would cool, but probably wouldn't drop below sticker, although he thought the market generally would see huge excess inventory.

But if Ford is really putting out thousands of broncos a week, will we hit excess supply? Will there continue to be massive demand for a relatively small SUV that gets 17 MPG and costs over $60k? Will demand wane for the higher trims?

On the other hand, it seems like Jeep sells about 3800 Wranglers per week most years.

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[Evergreen]

Nobody can really predict that, and if someone could they would be a very very rich man.

Just my 2 cents, I'd imagine it will cool off but still hold better residual value than the market average. Look at wranglers pre 2020, they certainly depreciated with time, but not nearly as bad as something like a Honda Civic.

 

[gryphon1231]

Hey Everyone! TL;DR - Do you think we'll see excess Bronco supply in the next year or two and whether we will see significant price drops in the new and lightly used Bronco market.

Longer version:

I'm very excited about my Bronco (Wildtrak, Area 51, Lux) to be delivered in a few weeks. Although I hope that we will love our Bronco and keep it for years I'm just slightly worried that we are going to see massive price drops in vehicles over the next year or so.

My dealer is selling a near-identical bronco for $13,000 over sticker, so as of right now, you'd think there's no chance of being very upside down in a bronco. And I'm not looking to flip mine.

It seems to me that there are a ton of used cars on the market and that Ford in particular is starting to produce way more Broncos. Two years ago and before the Pandemic, I never would have paid sticker price for a vehicle And although the Bronco is an awesome vehicle, paying $61,000 for it makes me a little uncomfortable.

I talked to a regional Ford rep and he said privately that he thought the pricing on Broncos would cool, but probably wouldn't drop below sticker, although he thought the market generally would see huge excess inventory.

But if Ford is really putting out thousands of broncos a week, will we hit excess supply? Will there continue to be massive demand for a relatively small SUV that gets 17 MPG and costs over $60k? Will demand wane for the higher trims?

On the other hand, it seems like Jeep sells about 3800 Wranglers per week most years.

If you’re uncomfortable paying $61k for a car, looking at potential resale value, and the potential to be “upside down” in equity in your bronco then you probably should not but it.

 

[Spooled]

Ford still can't fix their supply chain issues so who knows. Production has dropped the last 2 months which isn't good. They still have quite a backlog of day 1 reservations as well. I don't think there will be an excess supply for at least 1 year if not 2. Their values should hold strong

 

[jb56]

Nobody can really predict that, and if someone could they would be a very very rich man.

Just my 2 cents, I'd imagine it will cool off but still hold better residual value than the market average. Look at wranglers pre 2020, they certainly depreciated with time, but not nearly as bad as something like a Honda Civic.

I think that's a good point. But I do worry a little that the general market could make an impact.

If a sweet Bronco is $60,000 and a nice Pickup is either impossible to find or $70,000, you might be more likely to go with the Bronco than if the Pickup drops down to $55,000.

Even though the Bronco might be a little more resistant to price drops, I would think the availability of cheaper alternatives would make a dent. And I think we would all agree that many people buying broncos are not doing it to rock crawl or go on off-roading adventures every weekend. For a lot of people, the Bronco is in the same class as luxury mid-size SUVs

 

[jb56]

If you’re uncomfortable paying $61k for a car, looking at potential resale value, and the potential to be “upside down” in equity in your bronco then you probably should not but it.

This is an odd comment. Don't you think it's a reasonable way to analyze the question to look at whether you might be able to get the same bronco with low miles for $45,000 in a year or two? Or if you might be able to get a bronco for $5,000 under sticker in a year?

And it does make me a little uncomfortable to pay sticker for a high-end bronco. When I purchased my F150 in 2019 and my Wife's expedition in 2020, we paid way under sticker.

 

[John Auer]

I don't believe the supply chain issues will be resolved anytime soon. Even with a recession looming, there is still a backlog of unfilled orders of cars and many other big ticket items. Scarcity will keep prices and resale values high.

 

['68'72'95'21]

Ford still can't fix their supply chain issues so who knows. Production has dropped the last 2 months which isn't good. They still have quite a backlog of day 1 reservations as well. I don't think there will be an excess supply for at least 1 year if not 2. Their values should hold strong

Sadly... it's comforting to see your post... I was wondering if I was the only one still waiting for my nearly TWO year old reservation, all the while, as I see folks post all their cool upgrades and trips with their Broncos, and I see Broncos driving around my area daily.

 

[jb56]

Sadly... it's comforting to see your post... I was wondering if I was the only one still waiting for my nearly TWO year old reservation, all the while, as I see folks post all their cool upgrades and trips with their Broncos, and I see Broncos driving around my area daily.

We reserved day 1 and our Bronco just barely shipped. We are supposed to get it around July 21st

 

[Spooled]

Sadly... it's comforting to see your post... I was wondering if I was the only one still waiting for my nearly TWO year old reservation, all the while, as I see folks post all their cool upgrades and trips with their Broncos, and I see Broncos driving around my area daily.

Ford has build 120k+ Broncos, but not our day 1 reservations. Quite sad. I've already determined this is the last Ford I'll ever buy.

 

[Blackcat]

I think they'll hold value like Jeep Wranglers do.

 

[Hudman316]

Excess supply? They can’t meet the current demand. We’re not going to see excess for a long time.

 

[ctandc]

And it does make me a little uncomfortable to pay sticker for a high-end bronco. When I purchased my F150 in 2019 and my Wife's expedition in 2020, we paid way under sticker.

Ironically, how many people - just on this forum - are calling for "ending the dealership model" - which would almost guarantee no more heavy discounts. I bought a new '19 Mustang GT in sept '19 for almost 5% UNDER Invoice. High volume dealer. Now they can't get enough cars to keep their sales numbers anywhere near where they were in '19 and prices have climbed accordingly.

It's going to get even spicier when potential buyers start seeing the hard price increases coming for EV vehicles...it's just started - it'll get worse soon enough.

 

[jb56]

Excess supply? They can’t meet the current demand. We’re not going to see excess for a long time.

Interest rates are going up, there is a huge glut of used cars now. The economy is slowing down. The government injection of money has slowed down. Production is now up to 3,000-4,000 a week. The question isn't whether there is excess supply now. The question is whether there will be enough broncos available in a year that you could buy one for under MSRP or get a lightly used one for a significant discount.

And if we hit excess supply in say, January, I think those things would start to happen.

 

[thenewjs]

Leasing and fleet sales are the main contributor to depreciation. There's a direct correlation between high leased models (ie BMW) and depreciation. To my knowledge majority of all Broncos (as matter of lots makes/models) are being purchased and not leased. Currently, manufactures are busy filling retail orders and can't supply car rental companies. Car rental companies are having to purchase cars from auctions in large quantities at inflated prices.

Lets say leasing comes back in 2023, it won't be until 2025 until those cars return to lots off lease. IMO, we have entered a new era. Manufactures are contemplating direct to consumer and shorter day supplies and that would benefit the consumer, if makes leasing unattractive.

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