Bronco Pricing Forecast

[jb56]

Mine was July 18th 2020. WT Lux Modular B MIC top Hitch.

my dealer had suggested removing the tow package so we did, but I don’t know if that made any difference. Hopefully it’s not a pain to add it after purchase

Sponsored

 

[MNBigfoot]

my dealer had suggested removing the tow package so we did, but I don’t know if that made any difference. Hopefully it’s not a pain to add it after purchase

You're fine if like 98% of us, you need a 4 pin, now if you need a 7 pin like the vocal minority, add it back now.

 

[jb56]

You're fine if like 98% of us, you need a 4 pin, now if you need a 7 pin like the vocal minority, add it back now.

4 pin is great for me. To be honest, I probably won't tow with it at all. I'll just put a hitch based bike rack on.

 

[harpo]

I’m in Utah.

Its impressive if demand for used vehicles in your area is increasing, while the economy is slowing and the interest rates are rising, while new vehicle production is increasing.

Even Broncos are more and more commonly available here. I just checked the local online newspaper listing and stopped counting at 38 used Broncos listed.

just searching Nationally though, average used car prices have settled a lot and have actually started to decline in some classes of vehicle.

Larry H Miller, Draper has 3 listed, all 24K over MSRP.....

 

[jb56]

I think what some people seem to be missing, and again it's all about the region / market, is that inventory is down. New, used etc. What this means for many dealerships, especially larger auto groups that own multiple dealerships, is that they can't sustain the volume of sales they are used to. The same volume that allows them to sell at lower prices. It's a simple numbers game.

. . . .

Comparing what's going on now to ANY other time - especially talking about the automobile industry - is simple comparing apples to oranges.

Most people won't read this novel - that's fine. I just happen to have worked around the logistics periphery and personally have acquaintances who deal with these issues everyday.

This is all really interesting and thanks for sharing.

Everything I can see suggests that the increase in used prices in all classes is either slowing down or the prices are actually leveling off and starting to come down.

Obviously pricing is still way higher than 2018-2020 levels. I also thought this entire article was interesting, but the last paragraph was striking:

"Consumer Sentiment declines to start June. The initial June reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined 14% to 50.2, which was a new record low for the index. Consumers’ views of current conditions and future expectations both declined substantially, and the expected inflation rate increased to the highest level since 2008. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles declined to the lowest reading in the history of the survey dating back to 1978. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult also declined in the first half of June. As of June 15, the index was down 5.1% compared to May 31 and was at a new low for the index."

 

[jb56]

Larry H Miller, Draper has 3 listed, all 24K over MSRP.....

Well, as I said a few times, my dealership is still listing $13K-20k over MSRP for similar vehicles to what I ordered. But the question is really about what is happening right now so much as what things will be like in 6-12 months.

Here is a soft top wildtrak with 400 miles listed in my area for $77,950

I do not believe prices can stay that high. How much will they come down? Who knows. And it's been really interesting to hear everybody give their take on it.

 

[Tunagates]

The bronco on the lot has 600 miles. This dealership doesn’t add ADM to special orders
I have that in writing at least

I hope so man - I just see a lot of horror stories on here, last minute ADMs etc. Ultimately, the dealers days are numbered, they know that. We’re going to see a shift to short term view to maximize profits vs. playing the long game.

 

[harpo]

Well, as I said a few times, my dealership is still listing $13K-20k over MSRP for similar vehicles to what I ordered. But the question is really about what is happening right now so much as what things will be like in 6-12 months.

Here is a soft top wildtrak with 400 miles listed in my area for $77,950

I do not believe prices can stay that high. How much will they come down? Who knows. And it's been really interesting to hear everybody give their take on it.

"Even Broncos are more and more commonly available here. I just checked the local online newspaper listing and stopped counting at 38 used Broncos listed."


Sorry, I should have been more clear, my point is that if a vehicle is "more commonly available" it usually isn't selling for 50% over MSRP.

Otherwise I agree with you, prices can't stay that high.

 

[jb56]

I hope so man - I just see a lot of horror stories on here, last minute ADMs etc. Ultimately, the dealers days are numbered, they know that. We’re going to see a shift to short term view to maximize profits vs. playing the long game.

Although I would be very disappointed if my dealership played games with me, I would have a good time making their lives difficult and would just have to wait a year or two more than I've already had to wait.

 

[jb56]

"Even Broncos are more and more commonly available here. I just checked the local online newspaper listing and stopped counting at 38 used Broncos listed."


Sorry, I should have been more clear, my point is that if a vehicle is "more commonly available" it usually isn't selling for 50% over MSRP.

Otherwise I agree with you, prices can't stay that high.

I think that's a great point. I just kind of wonder, if there are a ton of broncos available out there and they are staying listed for longer, whether that might indicate there is already downward pressure. If they are all selling within 30 days for those high prices, then the fact there are a bunch listed doesn't mean much though. You are right.

 

[Mo’ Money Mo’ Broncos]

Based on your comments in this thread it doesn’t sound like you feel comfortable buying it, and you want someone to agree. I don’t say that to be rude, I say that just to point out if you don’t really feel 100% comfortable buying a 60k vehicle, do not buy it regardless of market predictions or others opinions.

If you can afford the bronco, if you’re gonna keep it a long time like I plan to with mine, and if you want the EXACT one you ordered, then buy it!! Who cares if you could’ve got one 3k-5k less a few years from now.. It won’t matter 10 years down the road and you’ll have exactly what you ordered. Plus you won’t keep waiting more years for something you can afford and enjoy today. The value to me comes from owning exactly what you wanted and driving it for a decade or more. The way I see it, (assuming you are fine financially) it’s impossible to regret buying something you absolutely love and use every single day.

One last thing, I bet a lot of ppl around 08 waited on an FJ bc of gas prices/economy. They probably also thought they could just get one in the future. Now it’s hard to find an FJ and they’re highly desirable and hold value amazingly. None of us can fully predict what will happen, so I’d base the decision strictly on financial affordability and how much you love the bronco you ordered.

 

[jb56]

Based on your comments in this thread it doesn’t sound like you feel comfortable buying it, and you want someone to agree. I don’t say that to be rude, I say that just to point out if you don’t really feel 100% comfortable buying a 60k vehicle, do not buy it regardless of market predictions or others opinions.

If you can afford the bronco, if you’re gonna keep it a long time like I plan to with mine, and if you want the EXACT one you ordered, then buy it!! Who cares if you could’ve got one 3k-5k less a few years from now.. It won’t matter 10 years down the road and you’ll have exactly what you ordered. Plus you won’t keep waiting more years for something you can afford and enjoy today. The value to me comes from owning exactly what you wanted and driving it for a decade or more. The way I see it, (assuming you are fine financially) it’s impossible to regret buying something you absolutely love and use every single day.

One last thing, I bet a lot of ppl around 08 waited on an FJ bc of gas prices/economy. They probably also thought they could just get one in the future. Now it’s hard to find an FJ and they’re highly desirable and hold value amazingly. None of us can fully predict what will happen, so I’d base the decision strictly on financial affordability and how much you love the bronco you ordered.

"and you want someone to agree"

With what? I want someone to agree with what?

When I reserved a Bronco, almost two years ago, I didn't own an expedition. The Bronco was going to replace our small family SUV. But now I do own an expedition and an F150. If I buy the bronco, it will be a third vehicle that I buy for fun. So the "value" of that asset is important. If that asset will be worth as much or more than I paid for it, then it's kind of a no brainer to buy it and have fun with it and then if I decide to sell, I don't take a bath.

My comfort level with buying the bronco has nothing to do with the ability to afford it. That's not the issue. But personally, I'm worried that in late 2023, Broncos will not be hard to find and it won't be hard to buy a new bronco for MSRP. If that happens, the value of used broncos will absolutely drop significantly below the new price. Right now, used broncos are so expensive because people don't want to wait forever to get a new one.

The FJ cruiser is not a good comparison. It was discontinued like 8 years ago. If Ford discontinued bronco production, then it would be a no brainer to buy one.

 

[MnLakeBum]

I don't see the supply chain issues being resolved for at least another 12-18 months. Prices on the Bronco will eventually cool off but I don't see them catching up with demand until at least late 2023. I still don't have a VIN for my first week(7/20/20) reservation and I'm now thinking it will be pushed to a 2023 MY.

 

[John Auer]

I don't see the supply chain issues being resolved for at least another 12-18 months. Prices on the Bronco will eventually cool off but I don't see them catching up with demand until at least late 2023. I still don't have a VIN for my first week(7/20/20) reservation and I'm now thinking it will be pushed to a 2023 MY.

I didn't reserve until 2/17/21. I fully expect to be pushed to a '23MY. I also agree that the supply chain issues won't be fixed for another year or two. When I go home at night and see container ships lined up in the ocean, it confirms my opinion.

 

[shieldsy]

So the "value" of that asset is important. If that asset will be worth as much or more than I paid for it, then it's kind of a no brainer to buy it and have fun with it and then if I decide to sell, I don't take a bath.

You are buying a Bronco in 2022 for the 2021 price protected MSRP. That is $2,800\$2445 off the 2022 price and a lot more off of the 2023 MSRP that will hit in a few months. While possible, if you sold your Bronco in 2023 you would need to be hugely unlucky with market forces to 'take a bath'.

If your expectation with your Bronco ownership is that you can 'have fun with it' and sell your DEPRECIATING asset in 2023 for more than you paid for it then maybe you need to recalibrate your expectations to prepare for potentially different outcomes in a very volatile industry vertical.

Honestly, this amount of mental masturbation and hand wringing doesn't seem worth the energy. I recommend you start researching Bronco accessories like the rest of us that are waiting or seek out an appreciating asset that will let you enjoy a much better value proposition.

Sponsored