Most likely by this time the initial excitement will have waned and dealers will be discounting, not getting thousands ADM. Consider the reviews for the Bronco are glowing, you would think its the best thing since they started putting beer in cans! This will change once they get production models they can actually drive. Don't get me wrong I'm excited about the Bronco, but Ford doesn't exactly have the best reputation around as reflected in the professional and consumer reviews of other models. What happens if the Bronco starts racking up recalls and owners start reporting problems? Ford would do well to consider reliability and quality first priority!!! The real competition is Toyota, not Jeep!
Why in your wildest dreams do you expect gas to increase over 110% in the next few months? About the only thing I could see that could make that happen would be an all out war in the middle east; the Georgia senate races going against the Republicans and the Biden administration announcing an all out ban on fracking; or a massive hurricane rips along the gulf coast of the US taking out most of the US refinery capacity. All of which I believe are extremely low probability.
I hope you're right, because I want a MY21 and those numbers would get me one...but my thoughts now are that it will be close to the Ford 70% estimate. We are getting close to order time, and not seeing any flood in cancellations. I don't think people just sit and wait if they don't plan on ordering this late in the game. Net reservation numbers are reportedly still growing...so people aren't jumping ship. The economy is a factor, but the stock market is up, people have a lot of equity in the markets. Interest rates are low. My guess is that conversion rate is very high.
But this forum may only represent 5% of potential Bronco sales. We have no idea how many that hold the other 95% of the reservations have canceled or will never go through with the order or purchase. From that part of the potential customer base, with very little communications from Ford, there is no way even half of them stay excited for a year plus let alone have their plans change.
Then why haven't they cancelled? Orders start in 3 weeks. You might be right, but it is just speculating; you speculating on the psyche of the reservation holders and gauging their excitement level. I don't think you have a handle on that. I would go with Ford's estimate as it has likely been researched, and of course went to investors as guidance...and they don't want to miss.
You may be correct, but what data do you have telling you they have or have not canceled?
I wouldn't hold out for the Hertz deal. They have already liquidated 180,000 cars (the bankruptcy court mandated 220K by the end of the year). In fact, they were so successful that they were able to pause their car sales program just a few weeks ago. You can still find independent franchise owners still selling, but it isn't the fantastic deal that one would expect. I just searched and the nearest to me was in Decatur, AL selling Jeep Sahara Editions for $42K.
I would expect a decrease in the percent. Yes the stock market is going up but job loses continue to mount and big companies are gaining while the little guy is losing. To me that means more folks are in the financial fence so they don't follow through.
My guess is around the 30% mark. I think more will opt to buy a lower model/trim package than cancel. I did but not for financial reasons but because right now I see more value in a Base SAS than another loaded 50K vehicle.
Success for Ford is 100% MY21 builds from reservations - no dealer stock. If that bleeds into MY22, all the better. Demand with no available supply- perfect marketing. Interesting that the reservation book is still open. Conversion rates - the missing factor for dealer allocations that will impact some of us more than others.
