Granger October Reservation Holders Update

[KirchTX]

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[Drex]

• We can convert orders past March 19th - That cutoff is for allocation purposes only, so we will continue to convert orders past the March 19th deadline and into April. We received over 50% of our overall reservations after September 30th. This means we'll be calling/emailing October reservations In March and April. Most of our reservation holders would like a 2022 MY Bronco and that will be the expectation. However if you'd like to place your order for a 21 MY Bronco on the slim chance it would get scheduled we're planning on doing that. I wouldn't be shocked to see some reservation holders with a no restrictions build (i.e. Big Bend, 2.3, 4-door, soft top) get built because the commodity is available for 2021 MY. It certainly doesn't hurt anything to convert an order.

This statement directly contradicts the reservation FAQ from Ford. They explicitly state that conversions will be completed by March 19th, only those will be considered orders and then get the estimate for delivery in May. It goes on to say that orders in do not guarantee a 2021, the obvious inference is that orders beyond allocation numbers/dates/cut-offs are to be included in the order pre 3/19/21. Is Granger of the opinion that my interpretation is incorrect and that their's is correct or was there clarification from Ford changing what the FAQ states?

 

[Apples]

This statement directly contradicts the reservation FAQ from Ford. They explicitly state that conversions will be completed by March 19th, only those will be considered orders and then get the estimate for delivery in May. It goes on to say that orders in do not guarantee a 2021, the obvious inference is that orders beyond allocation numbers/dates/cut-offs are to be included in the order pre 3/19/21. Is Granger of the opinion that my interpretation is incorrect and that their's is correct or was there clarification from Ford changing what the FAQ states?

Ford has said there will be another ordering window late summer for 2022s. That would indicate that March 19th would be specifically a cut off if you're trying to get a 21.

From the dealer perspective, March 19th is important because that's where Ford is cutting off the line for final allocation numbers.

 

[ZackDanger]

This statement directly contradicts the reservation FAQ from Ford. They explicitly state that conversions will be completed by March 19th, only those will be considered orders and then get the estimate for delivery in May. It goes on to say that orders in do not guarantee a 2021, the obvious inference is that orders beyond allocation numbers/dates/cut-offs are to be included in the order pre 3/19/21. Is Granger of the opinion that my interpretation is incorrect and that their's is correct or was there clarification from Ford changing what the FAQ states?

Can you post the Reservation FAQ this seems to contradict?

I'm not implying you're wrong... I just want to see it side-by-side and I'm not sure what exactly you're referring to.

 

[ausherpharmd]

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[Drex]

I understand why a dealer wants to make sure they have, at a minimum, the pre 9/20/20 reservations in as orders. My concern is that Ford is going to schedule the orders in before 3/20/21 and then not schedule any more after that until '22MY, thus pushing later reservations that a different dealer got in on time for scheduling ahead of similar reservations dates at a dealer who didn't get them all input in time for 2021MY consideration. The lack of clarity over if the left over '21 orders possible getting ahead of the '22 orders, regardless of reservation date, also becomes a concern. If Granger had these answers and it makes no difference, great! No worries. If they are incorrect, it could delay folks who they did not get to prior to 3/20/21.

My opinion is that there are going to come out a lot faster than people think, if there is an ordering misunderstanding and people are forced into a '22 while other dealerships get later reservations filled as '21MY, that would be less than ideal. I am trying to make sure there is clarity on both sides so that nobody gets a bad surprise.

 

[Drex]

Can you post the Reservation FAQ this seems to contradict?

I'm not implying you're wrong... I just want to see it side-by-side and I'm not sure what exactly you're referring to.

Start at What steps are required to complete my reservation? under Reservation FAQ, then read until delivery. "2021 Ford® Bronco SUV | Reservation Explained" https://www.ford.com/suvs/bronco/20...L8Il44rwQgeT6pp9JBlnZO1jXUnMA0uhoCZwsQAvD_BwE
If not getting an order in by 3/19/21 means you are out of contention for a '21, I read that as they will just go down the lists of later reservations at those dealerships that did. I just want verification that putting in an order after 3/19/21 still gives you a shot at a 2021, just in case they get through a lot more than people think

 

[Apples]

I understand why a dealer wants to make sure they have, at a minimum, the pre 9/20/20 reservations in as orders. My concern is that Ford is going to schedule the orders in before 3/20/21 and then not schedule any more after that until '22MY, thus pushing later reservations that a different dealer got in on time for scheduling ahead of similar reservations dates at a dealer who didn't get them all input in time for 2021MY consideration. The lack of clarity over if the left over '21 orders possible getting ahead of the '22 orders, regardless of reservation date, also becomes a concern. If Granger had these answers and it makes no difference, great! No worries. If they are incorrect, it could delay folks who they did not get to prior to 3/20/21.

My opinion is that there are going to come out a lot faster than people think, if there is an ordering misunderstanding and people are forced into a '22 while other dealerships get later reservations filled as '21MY, that would be less than ideal. I am trying to make sure there is clarity on both sides so that nobody gets a bad surprise.

I think you're worrying unnecessarily. We already know that reservations as of early August far out stripe Fords ability to make MY21 Broncos. They were stating 150k reservations around the end of July. Even with cancellations and deferrals to MY22, that's a hard number to bring down to the 70-80k expected MY21 production. In all likelihood, Granger has already outpaced the MY21 allocation they'll end up getting. Plus, timestamp is still king for build order and allocation becomes a moot point once the dealership has rolled past the possibility of MY21 deliveries.

 

[Drex]

I think you're worrying unnecessarily. We already know that reservations as of early August far out stripe Fords ability to make MY21 Broncos. They were stating 150k reservations around the end of July. Even with cancellations and deferrals to MY22, that's a hard number to bring down to the 70-80k expected MY21 production. In all likelihood, Granger has already outpaced the MY21 allocation they'll end up getting. Plus, timestamp is still king for build order and allocation becomes a moot point once the dealership has rolled past the possibility of MY21 deliveries.

I'll play along; (and for the record, we agree; we are both saying that reservations not converted by 3/19/21 are locked out of '21MY. It is the exact opposite of what Zach said in post #1.)

We don't know what reservation dates are going to be honored; we don't have the number of actual orders (nor can we calculate that number with any accuracy without the conversion rate and approximate number of reservations). We do no know (beyond Ford's claim of 5500-6500 a week with overtime alternating every other week from last Spring) what the actual production rate is going to be due to commodity restrictions. They might be able to crank out 125K units if they average that 25K units a month (if they have the parts.), not at all likely, but not impossible.


My concern is not for the people who were getting reservations last week or last month, it is that the 'bubble' might extend later than the Sept 19th allocation calculation cut off date and push some folks from a '21 to a '22 when they might not have been pushed if they had been converted as an order on time. If Ford ignores orders after 3/19/21 until the 2022MY ordering window and has more production capability they will add more 2021 allocations to the dealers. If a dealer does not have an order for a '21, Ford is going to skip them and go to a different dealer and take care of later reservation holders at dealers who converted them to orders pre 3/20/21. To that end;

I am just looking for separate confirmation that reservations converted after 3/19/21 will be shuffled into the 2021MY order lists just like the ones before 3/19/21. I read exactly the opposite from Ford. I really don't expect to get a 2021, October reservation myself, but I want a shot at it if I am right on my personal conversion estimates and delays and I bet that people from late September would prefer that their order was put in rather than gotten to after the cut off date, or at least given the option before they were automatically deferred (if Zach is incorrect in his post)

 

[vrtical]

good grief what if what if what if

 

[Used2jeep]

Can you post the Reservation FAQ this seems to contradict?

I'm not implying you're wrong... I just want to see it side-by-side and I'm not sure what exactly you're referring to.

Well, convert by mid-March for 21s with a June delivery (ish)? +/- 3 months so Sept/Oct/Nov window for 22s seems be be reasonably legit.

 

[Apples]

I'll play along; (and for the record, we agree; we are both saying that reservations not converted by 3/19/21 are locked out of '21MY. It is the exact opposite of what Zach said in post #1.)

He didn't say that.

"Please keep in mind the March 19th cutoff to have reservations converted to orders is for allocation purposes. We will be converting reservations to orders past the March 19th deadline and well into April-May"

"We can convert orders past March 19th - That cutoff is for allocation purposes only, so we will continue to convert orders past the March 19th deadline and into April. We received over 50% of our overall reservations after September 30th. This means we'll be calling/emailing October reservations In March and April. Most of our reservation holders would like a 2022 MY Bronco and that will be the expectation. However if you'd like to place your order for a 21 MY Bronco on the slim chance it would get scheduled we're planning on doing that. I wouldn't be shocked to see some reservation holders with a no restrictions build (i.e. Big Bend, 2.3, 4-door, soft top) get built because the commodity is available for 2021 MY. It certainly doesn't hurt anything to convert an order."

Emphasis mine. He's telling October deal reservation holders who did so with the expectation that they were MY22 reservations, that if they can't get a phone call in by March 19th, they will still be able to place their order into April/May.

He also states that October res holders who want to try for a MY21 can certainly put an order in.

 

[Apples]

I'll play along; (and for the record, we agree; we are both saying that reservations not converted by 3/19/21 are locked out of '21MY. It is the exact opposite of what Zach said in post #1.)

Also, I'm not so sure the March 19th date is a MY21/22 cut off. The point I was making in my first comment was that it probably doesn't matter in Grangers case. Or for that matter in any dealerships case. If the 30% allocation trend holds true, your concern is moot.

It's extremely unlikely, but if Ford somehow could build more Broncos than they have converted orders before March 19th, they would just take the next converted order by timestamp in line and keep going. It's not like they're going to halt production in October because that's how many converted orders they had by March 19th.

 

[Razorbak86]

I'll play along; (and for the record, we agree; we are both saying that reservations not converted by 3/19/21 are locked out of '21MY. It is the exact opposite of what Zach said in post #1.)

We don't know what reservation dates are going to be honored; we don't have the number of actual orders (nor can we calculate that number with any accuracy without the conversion rate and approximate number of reservations). We do no know (beyond Ford's claim of 5500-6500 a week with overtime alternating every other week from last Spring) what the actual production rate is going to be due to commodity restrictions. They might be able to crank out 125K units if they average that 25K units a month (if they have the parts.), not at all likely, but not impossible.


My concern is not for the people who were getting reservations last week or last month, it is that the 'bubble' might extend later than the Sept 19th allocation calculation cut off date and push some folks from a '21 to a '22 when they might not have been pushed if they had been converted as an order on time. If Ford ignores orders after 3/19/21 until the 2022MY ordering window and has more production capability they will add more 2021 allocations to the dealers. If a dealer does not have an order for a '21, Ford is going to skip them and go to a different dealer and take care of later reservation holders at dealers who converted them to orders pre 3/20/21. To that end;

I am just looking for separate confirmation that reservations converted after 3/19/21 will be shuffled into the 2021MY order lists just like the ones before 3/19/21. I read exactly the opposite from Ford. I really don't expect to get a 2021, October reservation myself, but I want a shot at it if I am right on my personal conversion estimates and delays and I bet that people from late September would prefer that their order was put in rather than gotten to after the cut off date, or at least given the option before they were automatically deferred (if Zach is incorrect in his post)

This is what Ford said in the the 'Bronco Reservation to Order FAQs 1.29.2021'...

Source: https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...d-to-order-dealer-faq-as-of-january-29.12091/

 

[Drex]

Also, I'm not so sure the March 19th date is a MY21/22 cut off. The point I was making in my first comment was that it probably doesn't matter in Grangers case.

I must have misread your post below then.

Ford has said there will be another ordering window late summer for 2022s. That would indicate that March 19th would be specifically a cut off if you're trying to get a 21.

The above also mentions reopening the order window, meaning it was closed at some point. These are your words, no?

I'll play along; (and for the record, we agree; we are both saying that reservations not converted by 3/19/21 are locked out of '21MY. It is the exact opposite of what Zach said in post #1.)

He didn't say that.


"We can convert orders past March 19th - That cutoff is for allocation purposes only, so we will continue to convert orders past the March 19th deadline and into April. We received over 50% of our overall reservations after September 30th. This means we'll be calling/emailing October reservations In March and April. Most of our reservation holders would like a 2022 MY Bronco and that will be the expectation..

(removed your emphasized parts and added mine to zoom in on the fact that the first seven words in the quote you picked literally says they can convert orders past March 19th and later that they can convert into April because the deadline is not actually a deadline for orders, just allocation formula numbers. (which is what I am looking for verify, that it is not the deadline for actual '21 orders)

He then goes on to state that they will be calling October folks in March and April, thus choosing to not meet the order deadline. I do not think it is unreasonable for a customer to expect the dealer to expend enough resources to actually convert the reservations they have for 2021 Bronco's during the ordering period. Even if many of them might not get one. Since, as we covered above, Granger is stating that the can convert orders after 3/19 regardless of the deadline Ford emailed us about, I do not think it is off the walls crazy to ask if there was a directive from Ford or if it is just an interpretation of the information we all have by Granger that justifies them pushing off some customers until after the stated ordering deadline. (which is what I am looking for verify, that it is not the deadline for actual '21 orders)

Emphasis mine. He's telling October deal reservation holders who did so with the expectation that they were MY22 reservations, that if they can't get a phone call in by March 19th, they will still be able to place their order into April/May.

He also states that October res holders who want to try for a MY21 can certainly put an order in.

This is the crux of the matter. How do they know which people are which? They are going in order and are not going to get to the end until April. Per Granger more than half of all reservations are October and later. Those are the ones that will be gotten to in March and April. Meaning a big chunk are not going to be given the call and option before 3/19/21. To illustrate; say the last 195 of folks up to October 30th want to postpone until '22. Works out fine for them either way. The 28 people on the 31st who do want a shot at a '21 (as likely or unlikely as it may be) don't get a call to order until after March 23rd and are for sure out of luck. Hence my desire for verification about the timeline to be in the running for a '21.
(which is what I am looking for verify, that it is not the deadline for actual '21 orders)

It's extremely unlikely, but if Ford somehow could build more Broncos than they have converted orders before March 19th, they would just take the next converted order by timestamp in line and keep going. It's not like they're going to halt production in October because that's how many converted orders they had by March 19th.

You understand and repeat my concern without realizing it here. Yes, if it goes faster (or the conversion rate is low enough, and we won't know either until well past 3/19/21) then they will go later in the time stamped orders that were in before 3/19/21. Maybe much later timestamps that are anticipated by some people now. If you would have been in the time stamp group that was 'moved up' into 2021 production, but your dealer didn't bother getting your order in before 3/19/21, you are shit out of luck.

Will Granger be getting 100 phone calls on March 19th from people demanding to be put in the '21 pile just in case? Don't know, but I doubt they could handle it in one day (maybe a week). Again, Granger is stating that they are about halfway with about half of the time gone in the order period. If they are not anticipating finishing them until a month after the end of the ordering period, especially with a new hire, that means they are choosing to pull other resources off of the calls and probably soon if not already. Their business and I do not begrudge them one iota to run it as they see fit. I just do not want to see people unnecessarily delayed another model year with the attendant cost increases and possible loss of a color they wanted because their chosen dealer did not get their 2021 Bronco reservation converted in time to a 2021 Bronco order. (whether they get one or not is in Ford's hands then).

Again, how does Granger or any dealer know which 2021 reservations desire to wait (for sure) until 2022MY? They stated that they assume most October reservations expected it and want it. I made an October reservation (when production was still starting in March) and I thought I had a excellent shot at a '21 because of my firm belief that conversion numbers are going to be stupid low and that the production capability was there. (again all before they moved production later and sent out the letters about delays) Have they asked or polled a sample of October and later reservations if they want to wait for sure until 2022? I certainly haven't seen such a thing.

I give up on getting an answer to my question about verification on converting after 3/19/21 and go with what Ford states. I will ask to have my order placed by the middle of March if they haven't gotten to me yet and that will end my worry. If no one else is concerned, that is on them.

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