Report: 2023 Bronco order banks will open February 2023

[mpeugeot]

How much do you want to bet that these are because the dealership has all of their customers in 99 status unless pressed, until 21 November 2022.

My guess is that this is current dealer allocation and that they intentionally 99'd as many 2022 order/reservations as possible to maximize their profits, without regard to the reservation holders who don't know better. They will convert them all on the 20th or 21st.

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[Gloff]

I think Ford will be able to get through nearly all of the remaining reservation holders for 2023. The total number of outstanding reservations is big, but the actual conversion rate is much smaller. I think Ford's biggest problem is the two door bottleneck. Because two door was constrained for the last two production years, the percentage of outstanding two door reservations has risen relative to the total reservation/order count. I've noticed that two door reservation holders are more dedicated and convert to 2023 at a higher rate. My overall two door reservation % is around 20-25%, my current order bank is 45ish% two door. That is partly a function of the bottleneck, but two door customer were the fastest to re-order for 2023.

For reference, our attrition rate right now is around 60% of our remaining reservations. That will change toward the deadline, I expect about 45-50% of the remaining reservation holders to order a 2023. You can do the math on the remaining reservations, and we know the plant capacity is around 100-120k units/year.

Our conversion from 2022 builds to 2023 has a much higher take rate than the unconverted reservations though. My suspicion is that those that have an unconverted reservation and have cancelled/not ordered for 2023 are one of two things: Waiting for Black Mod top and are giving up, or forgot they have a reservation and lost interest.

We did a hell of a job in communication with our reservation holders (in my humble opinion), and I'm having a hard time getting a hold of unconverted reservation holders, so I can only imagine what the numbers look like at a dealer without a dedicated person/team to stay in contact with reservation holders.

As some of you noted though, there will be a long line of Non-Reservation holders ready to order when the general order bank opens, and I suspect that Ford will quickly run out of the excess capacity they've evacuated by cancelling the unconverted and 99'd builds.

 

[Gloff]

How much do you want to bet that these are because the dealership has all of their customers in 99 status unless pressed, until 21 November 2022.

My guess is that this is current dealer allocation and that they intentionally 99'd as many 2022 order/reservations as possible to maximize their profits, without regard to the reservation holders who don't know better. They will convert them all on the 20th or 21st.

In theory, we have to verify each order with a copy of the license and a signed order confirmation sheet. I can't just order these Broncos and expect them to schedule.

 

[jleafgre]

Taken from his comments, 45-50k unfilled 2022 orders, nearly 50% of them still in Priority 99 (as of 11/7/22).
Plus a huge % of those orders were for Everglades. That seems strange.

That’s 2–3 months of production assuming they have parts. That’s seems to be in line with all the info I have been able to extract from various sources. If true, they will need to open banks to have orders to produce. That doesn’t mean some will not continue to wait due to order specs but let’s hope @Ford prioritizes them over their allotment model.

 

[AZ_Liberty]

::cough:: allocation ::cough::

It's not just allocation. Granger has what, 1400 orders outstanding or so? Ford has around 90k roll overs from last year, plus however many original reservations that Ford is for some reason allowing "one last chance" to convert.

The issue is that even though Ford knew what people were ordering a good 6-10 months before they started building, they never actually got their supply chain aligned with orders.

We are two model years in, and Ford STILL can't figure out how to build 2-doors, Wildtracks, Badlands and 4-door hard tops at the rate they are ordered.

The Granger issue is that Ford does not honor their reservation holders.

 

[AZ_Liberty]

I had originally heard only about 120,000 reservations (quoted in this forum many times)were converted to orders. Maybe 75,000 in non reservation orders ~ 200k orders total to build?

120,000 or 190,000 reservations converted to orders in March of 2021, when Ford announced the deadline to be in the first round of manufacturing.

More converted after that. Also, they left the reservations open until September or so, and pretty much all of the post March reservations converted within a few days, since that was the only way to order at the time.

Then they just opened Bronco up to orders, for an entire year or so.

The 90,000 roll-overs from last year is basically hearsay, and there is no way of knowing how many of those are early reservations, late reservations, or walk-in orders.

We do know that Ford had over a quarter million customer orders roll over from 2022 to 2023, but Ford was not kind enough to break those down by model, and Maverick is probably about 1/3 of them.

 

[Tryingtogetabronco]

Hope this is true. I reached out to them for an order few months ago. Maybe I will be lucky to order the everglades I want.

 

[Letagoavs710]

It's not just allocation. Granger has what, 1400 orders outstanding or so? Ford has around 90k roll overs from last year, plus however many original reservations that Ford is for some reason allowing "one last chance" to convert.

The issue is that even though Ford knew what people were ordering a good 6-10 months before they started building, they never actually got their supply chain aligned with orders.

We are two model years in, and Ford STILL can't figure out how to build 2-doors, Wildtracks, Badlands and 4-door hard tops at the rate they are ordered.

The Granger issue is that Ford does not honor their reservation holders.

They have 500 something, I think they have 300 about to be kicked if they don’t convert. But yes, it’s a massive failure all around. Ford isn’t building reservation holders Broncos. They’ve spent the last 2 years filling out allocation and letting people cut the line by building soft top big bends to everyone who walked up to the window.

 

[Lowcountry Bronco]

It's not just allocation. Granger has what, 1400 orders outstanding or so? Ford has around 90k roll overs from last year, plus however many original reservations that Ford is for some reason allowing "one last chance" to convert.

The issue is that even though Ford knew what people were ordering a good 6-10 months before they started building, they never actually got their supply chain aligned with orders.

We are two model years in, and Ford STILL can't figure out how to build 2-doors, Wildtracks, Badlands and 4-door hard tops at the rate they are ordered.

The Granger issue is that Ford does not honor their reservation holders.

There's currently 470 on the Granger list that are unfulfilled, I don't know how many went elsewhere or didn't answer the call to reorder for '23. Granger is only expecting 120 allocations for '23 so the other 350 are out of luck or thrown to the wolves and start from scratch.

I see your point, allocations, reservations, supply chains ... It's a mess.

 

[jddunfee]

Supply chain is ford’s favorite word everyone is talking about. I call bullishit all day long. Look at the other threads in this forum. Look at how many top of the line bronco were built for later ‘21 and early ‘22 orders. The same builds that us early ‘20 reservation orders are waiting on. Fact is, ford can get full msrp for the latest orders while early reservation holders get a price break or whatever ford is calling it this week. They have to mix more ‘22 orders in to keep the profits up. It’s not supply chain so get off the ford high horse. It’s about $$$$$.

 

[Hossfire]

The higher the trim the more margin FoMoCo makes. It would be financially irresponsible to 'push' lower trims if the parts supply is available either on site or within scheduled arrival.

I don't think Ford will be 'pushing' lower end trims. They will schedule what they can build. Likely, this will be non-Squatch soft tops with lower end interiors. Dealers with more allocations than orders will get these. It's really in Ford's best interest to clear out the existing higher end orders before taking any new orders.

 

[Hossfire]

Supply chain is ford’s favorite word everyone is talking about. I call bullishit all day long. Look at the other threads in this forum. Look at how many top of the line bronco were built for later ‘21 and early ‘22 orders. The same builds that us early ‘20 reservation orders are waiting on. Fact is, ford can get full msrp for the latest orders while early reservation holders get a price break or whatever ford is calling it this week. They have to mix more ‘22 orders in to keep the profits up. It’s not supply chain so get off the ford high horse. It’s about $$$$$.

Dealer allocations. Granted, my reservation was June 2021, so my room to complain is much less than people who reserved 11 months before me. It is annoying to watch videos of people who ordered in 2022 (w/o reservation) getting MY2022 higher end builds.

 

[Hossfire]

Pretty sure there is enough in the queue to run out MY23 with no more orders, but it seems Ford likes to build backlog, its good for the stock portfolio.

Sounds like they only have four months of orders, if all the unconverted 99s convert. The number of unbuild Everglades is a little strange.

 

[Hossfire]

Ok so some Ford dealer makes a you tube video were supposed to take it as the gospel truth. The fact is they don't know any more than we do. There's not one word on the other forum about this even it's connected to Ford. My dealer a 3rd generation owned dealership knows nothing yet so why would we believe this is anything but speculation.

Tim Bartz has a good rep. I think many dealers just don't provide much information. The reality is that they can't influence the scheduling decisions and don't want deal with questions that won't get you your Bronco faster.

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