Stephens Auto "Roll-Call"

[spyderman01]

Date-stamp = 7/23
Date-switched = 10/20
Location: Melbourne, FL
2 Dr. Base

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[ccsami4x4]

Date-Stamp: 7/14
Date Switched: 10/20
Location: Blacksburg, VA

 

[PowPow]

maybe someone can help me understand better. But what is the thinking around just because one dealer will get a bunch of deliveries, it's going to delay things?

I just over-thought the shit outta this, and here's my word vomit:

First off. (what's the number being thrown around?) 165k reservations have been made. I'd say, probably more. But we'll go with that.

Ok, let's take that 165k. According to that reservation post, 50% of the reservations were made in the first 3 days. (if i remember from my college stats class, only about 800 answers are needed in order to make a pretty good conclusion of the trend, and that survey has over 5k responses, so it's probably pretty accurate. Ford is probably seeing similar numbers)

so, half of 165k is about $83k.

My stepfather is retired from GM and worked in an assembly plant for god knows how many years. He told me the other day his plant (and this was about 15yrs ago) would turn out 1k cars per day. Maybe these days they can do better? Even if, let's go with 1k/day at one plant.

So if you ordered your car within the first 3 days, you *should* receive your car within the first 90 days. (Between June-Sept) (this is assuming only 1 plant is assembling the car)

But let's also take into account that there are 165k reservations out there. This forum only has what? 5k members? 6k? (idk the numbers) but take into account others just following the forum and not actual members... maybe, MAYBE 10k? that's only 6% of potential buyers.

So even if this entire forum (and nonmembers following) switched all to Granger or all to Stephens, that's only 10k cars to be delivered. And let's not forget that's based on timestamp. So if you're in the first 3 days, that'd only be 5 days worth of production spread out over the 90 days. (half of 10k is 5k; 1k cars per day = 5 days)

That was a long winded way of saying, IF Stephens or Granger got even 1k reservations. That's 1 production day. And again, it's based on your time stamp. so that's going to be spread out over the 90 days.

in conclusion I don't think anyone's reservation will be delayed if they switch and bump up the dealers overall reservation numbers.

What I have not taken into account, and cannot speak to is how many cars fit on a delivery truck, and how many delivery trucks ford has to deliver to dealers all over the country. This can and will certainly have to be taken into account.

but please correct my thinking if I'm wrong.

 

[ccsami4x4]

]\

My stepfather is retired from GM and worked in an assembly plant for god knows how many years. He told me the other day his plant (and this was about 15yrs ago) would turn out 1k cars per day. Maybe these days they can do better? Even if, let's go with 1k/day at one plant.

I thought the plant where the Bronco is being produced also produces the Ranger. The last I saw, the total capacity of the plant is 5300 units per week. If that's the case, it will be split between the two (not sure what the split will be, but it certainly won't be 100% towards the Bronco).

If Ford truly plans to sell 200k Broncos per year, that would be over 500 per day for all 365 days of the year, though I'd be surprised to see that level of sales in year one (especially considering COVID delays and expected release around June 2021).

 

[KADNC]

I for one would be very interested in getting some idea where I stand on delivery from Stephens Auto. I reserved after the initial spike and already know I'm going to have a bit of a wait. With my switch to Stephens and the recent allotment changes I fear that wait has just been increased. Having an approximation of the total number of orders that we could then compile and sort by date-stamp would give us all a little better idea as to where we stand.

I would like to suggest that if you have reservation with Stephen's you post your date-stamp and the date you switched to Stephens. It also might be fun to sort by location. I'll start...

Date-stamp = 8/3
Date-switched = 8/26
Location: Raleigh, NC

As promised here is the spreadsheet. I will continue to update it as more info is provided. (P.S. No viruses I promise...but if there is a better way to attach it please let me know)

Thanks!

Ordered July 15
Switched Oct 16
Raleigh, NC

 

[BellyRat]

Ordered July 15
Switched Oct 16
Raleigh, NC

With all that's going on regarding allocations and x-plan and the possibility of a second switch have you given any thought to switch back locally to a large dealership? I spoke to crossroads in apex and university and Durham and they both said they were doing MSRP with no ADM. With a reservation date of 8/3 I'm really struggling to figure out what to do.

 

[704Bronco]

Date-stamp = 7/14
Date-switched = 10/20
Location: Charlotte, NC
4 Dr Badsquatch

 

[PowPow]

I thought the plant where the Bronco is being produced also produces the Ranger. The last I saw, the total capacity of the plant is 5300 units per week. If that's the case, it will be split between the two (not sure what the split will be, but it certainly won't be 100% towards the Bronco).

If Ford truly plans to sell 200k Broncos per year, that would be over 500 per day for all 365 days of the year, though I'd be surprised to see that level of sales in year one (especially considering COVID delays and expected release around June 2021).

well if that's the case, that'll certainly cut all my projections in half. Still though... if Stephens gets 1k reservations (which I think would be ALOT) that's 10 production days... and then spread out over 180 days. So i don't think it'd have any impact on getting your Bronco when you're supposed to. (Stephen's vs local)

But this is me speaking from zero experience. I'm sure there's more that goes into it. (I still think anyone who switched would be fine)

for the record. I have not yet switched. but am certainly considering it. I guess it depends on how much invoice really is. Is there a way we'd even know? The $1k off regardless is sweet... but not sure if that makes it worth for me... now if we're talking $2k, maybe $3k... then it's a solid consideration.

 

[BroncoOvrlndr]

well if that's the case, that'll certainly cut all my projections in half. Still though... if Stephens gets 1k reservations (which I think would be ALOT) that's 10 production days... and then spread out over 180 days. So i don't think it'd have any impact on getting your Bronco when you're supposed to. (Stephen's vs local)

But this is me speaking from zero experience. I'm sure there's more that goes into it. (I still think anyone who switched would be fine)

for the record. I have not yet switched. but am certainly considering it. I guess it depends on how much invoice really is. Is there a way we'd even know? The $1k off regardless is sweet... but not sure if that makes it worth for me... now if we're talking $2k, maybe $3k... then it's a solid consideration.

Don’t forget that invoice is about 3.5% below MSRP (What most dealers are going to sell for minimum). So if you build out your Bronco on Friday with the B&P and it comes to $50,000, Then Invoice will approximately be $1,750 below MSRP, then Stephens deal of an extra $1,000 off puts your Bronco at $47,250.

That’s ballpark $2,750 less than most all local dealers are going to be at! Not to mention it’s better than X-plan and everyone’s been crying about no X-plan being offered for the last 2 days!

 

[ccsami4x4]

I guess it depends on how much invoice really is. Is there a way we'd even know? The $1k off regardless is sweet... but not sure if that makes it worth for me... now if we're talking $2k, maybe $3k... then it's a solid consideration.

Not my graphic, but I copied it from this site previously:

 

[spyderman01]

With all that's going on regarding allocations and x-plan and the possibility of a second switch have you given any thought to switch back locally to a large dealership? I spoke to crossroads in apex and university and Durham and they both said they were doing MSRP with no ADM. With a reservation date of 8/3 I'm really struggling to figure out what to do.

Actually no, with all that's going on I figured I'd made the switch now as the Stephens deal is good and I don't think anyone here local will beat it, less so now that no one has to worry about the competition selling for X-plan. Plus it's a drive I make every year anyway.

 

[PowPow]

Don’t forget that invoice is about 3.5% below MSRP (What most dealers are going to sell for minimum). So if you build out your Bronco on Friday with the B&P and it comes to $50,000, Then Invoice will approximately be $1,750 below MSRP, then Stephens deal of an extra $1,000 off puts your Bronco at $47,250.

That’s ballpark $2,750 less than most all local dealers are going to be at! Not to mention it’s better than X-plan and everyone’s been crying about no X-plan being offered for the last 2 days!

Not my graphic, but I copied it from this site previously:

Well that certainly makes it interesting! In the end, after addons, etc... I was trying to stay under $45k, and was in between a Big Bend & Black Diamond. if these numbers hold up, then the Stephen's deal could put move the Black Diamond to the top!

Thanks guys! Very helpful.

Could make it a weekend trip to WV with the wife. Fly in, drive home. I live in the Philly area, so it's only about a 8hr drive. Not terrible. I'm sure we could go camping or something in the area. Make a roadtrip out of it. (have to research what's around there)

 

[PowPow]

@BellyRat is that spreadsheet up to date? I'm curious to what the number is up to at this point...

 

[KADNC]

With all that's going on regarding allocations and x-plan and the possibility of a second switch have you given any thought to switch back locally to a large dealership? I spoke to crossroads in apex and university and Durham and they both said they were doing MSRP with no ADM. With a reservation date of 8/3 I'm really struggling to figure out what to do.

Before going with Stephens, I thought about attempting to negotiate locally....but then I dreaded the extended conversations that would entail and doubted I would get the commitment Stephens has offered. I wish a local dealer would step up with this type of offfer and transparency.

 

[BellyRat]

@BellyRat is that spreadsheet up to date? I'm curious to what the number is up to at this point...

Sorry...been a little busy. I will update it tomorrow morning

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