Bronco October 2021 Sales & Production Numbers: 7,364 Sold / 7,668 Produced

[Drex]

I've been tracking these numbers over time:
...

* If 120,000 of the MY21 reservations were converted to orders (ignoring people dropping off and code 99's) and given 32,000 produced to date (ignoring that some of these are post-March 19 orders) and given 6,200 in dealer stocks, there are about 85,000 MY21 reservations to build. In a perfect world at 8,000 a month, it will take 11 months to clear these.

* Hopefully the monthly build rate grows.

You are making a fundamental mistake in your assumptions; As you do not know the allocation formula Ford is using to steer production to where they like (and they certainly would not make a formula that did the opposite, all we do know, from a well known and trusted dealer, is that the allocation formula does not use the number of outstanding converted reservations at a dealer as a criteria at all...shows you how much Ford values them), it could be that some favored dealers get far more allocations than they have reservation orders across the Country and that those allocations would be used for high end stock vehicles. This would do two things, well.. three if you count pissing off people who reserved, first; would eat up basic factory capacity and leave less for reservation orders at other dealers. Second; would eat up commodities so even if your dealer allocations came up, they might bypass a reservation build due to lack of commodities, and build a more basic model for dealer stock at that dealer. Which exacerbates the problem even more. I think it is far more likely, even with increasing production levels, that perhaps a quarter of reservation holders are pushed deep into 2023 and beyond.

Let's back up to the middle of my missive above for a moment; Ford does not use the number of unfilled reservation orders at a dealer as part of the allocation formula. The place so little value on the reservations they originally claimed were the be all and end all of the process (before they intentionally destroyed that system with allocations which are incompatible with a reservation system) that they don't care enough about the people with them to even consider designing allocations to give an advantage to those who have been waiting in any way whatsoever. Ford is quite clear, their favored dealers will get Bronco's to sell and the rest can get happy about it, that is all they care about. Go read the threads about people trying to switch dealers, it ain't happening. Ford doesn't care about reservationists at all. No way they 'waste' valuable production on getting them all cleared out at the expense of their preferred dealers getting more stock.

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[skhubbard93]

Anyone have any idea how many outstanding reservations for MY21 vehicles are extant?

I don't have a total, but we have just shy of 400 MY21 orders scheduled in a tracking system here:

Tracking for remaining MY21 builds​

Check the charts on tab 3 for insight into what makes up those builds. If we assume that there is about 1.5 months left at 8000 builds per month then we're looking at a total of 12,000. I anticipate it will be less than that due to delays (we saw these in late October) and holidays. So I expect the tracker currently represents about 3-5% of the total scheduled MY21 production that remains.

 

[KompressorV12]

I don’t believe that for a second. The commodity constraints and allocations aren’t doing anyone with an early 2021 order any favors. I’ve seen people with day, week and month old orders here getting vins bypassing a hundred thousand people. It’s like the hunger games anymore.

My dealer would be considered large for the PNW and has 150 orders for the Bronco. Someone 2 weeks ago walked in with no reservation and placed a loaded 4 door badlands, lux, tow, SAS, 2.7, SOFT top and got a build date of Jan 3rd. That to me says the only constraint left is really the hard top. That or 149 people in front of him ordered a hard top.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

My dealer would be considered large for the PNW and has 150 orders for the Bronco. Someone 2 weeks ago walked in with no reservation and placed a loaded 4 door badlands, lux, tow, SAS, 2.7, SOFT top and got a build date of Jan 3rd. That to me says the only constraint left is really the hard top. That or 149 people in front of him ordered a hard top.

That’s a joke, I’m sorry. That is just ridiculous.

 

[chtucker]

Total produced each month should still ramp up. I was looking at Ranger production in 2019-2020 and they hit 10-12K produced a few months.

Outside of supply chain issues, there should be no reason why they can't build 250K plus units between the Ranger and Bronco at MAP.

I'll venture to guess that most 21MY reservation holders should have their Broncos by the end of Summer 2022, in the worst case.

Except the same line is going to produce Rangers/Broncos even if it was a 70/30 Bronco/Ranger split that is only 8,400 Broncos a month

 

[BadSquatch21]

That’s a joke, I’m sorry. That is just ridiculous.

That or the dealer had an abandoned '22 order that they changed to the walk-ins specs.

 

[dbeyers]

No mistake - just different assumptions. My analysis assumes perfect adherence to the reservation system (which we all know is not happening), it assumes no change to the allocation scheme (which could change) and it assumes production remains steady at 8,000 per month (hopefully this grows).

I think we agree that if none of these change, there will be MY21 reservations being delivered in 2023. I guess if I was at one of the "out of favor dealers" and couldn't switch dealers I would think about making a new order at another dealer - the more time goes on the less that strategy has any merit.

 

[marjen]

Hey,

120,000 reservations, building 7600 a month...means everybody has one within 16 months!

I'm gonna be honest, not sure if that is good or terrible....

not when like half the broncos built are 4 door soft tops for Dealer stock because of commodity issues. how many reservations have been filled to date?

 

[Chaos]

My dealer would be considered large for the PNW and has 150 orders for the Bronco. Someone 2 weeks ago walked in with no reservation and placed a loaded 4 door badlands, lux, tow, SAS, 2.7, SOFT top and got a build date of Jan 3rd. That to me says the only constraint left is really the hard top. That or 149 people in front of him ordered a hard top.

Are you with the same dealer? Yeah, I've seen a few of these, but this guy is pretty much gloating about his build date. I am hoping it is a mistake and ford will be fixing it in the next few weeks or at the very least it is a build date that gets dragged out and changed for 12 months or more...... Not to be petty or anything, but it is absolutely ridiculous......

 

[vrtical]

I don’t believe that for a second. The commodity constraints and allocations aren’t doing anyone with an early 2021 order any favors. I’ve seen people with day, week and month old orders here getting vins bypassing a hundred thousand people. It’s like the hunger games anymore.

The large dealers are the new districts.

 

[KompressorV12]

Are you with the same dealer? Yeah, I've seen a few of these, but this guy is pretty much gloating about his build date. I am hoping it is a mistake and ford will be fixing it in the next few weeks or at the very least it is a build date that gets dragged out and changed for 12 months or more...... Not to be petty or anything, but it is absolutely ridiculous......

I'm assuming everyone on this thread complaining about not having a VIN has a hard top. Am I right? If so, I have no complaints with Ford's order of operations. If they don't have hard tops, what should they do?

 

[69351windsor]

"October new vehicle orders hit 77,000."

-- or --

How to fool Wall Street in 5 words or fewer (and a number).

Step 1: Ford tells all unscheduled orders that they need to re-order starting in mid-October.
Step 2: Ford tells all orders awaiting rescheduling that MY22 build scheduling will begin soon thereafter, and only buildable (non-99) orders will be scheduled.
Step 3: Outstanding reservation-holders scamper to dealers to re-order their Broncos as MY22s as soon as possible after the system opens in October.
Step 4: Ford includes these re-orders as new vehicle orders in October.

Am I wrong? Possibly. Ford might not count such re-orders in its totals. But then again, it might... especially if those were pending MY22s to begin with due to lack of MY21 features.

Yes, looks like good use of tried & true fuzzy math or the old favorite recipe of "put books in pot on stove & simmer until done"......AND have we ended our outrage over the whole building reservations first lie?? I haven't.

 

[dbeyers]

I've been tracking these numbers over time:

I constructed this to get an approximation of the number of ponies on Dirt Mountain and to track production, sales and inventory.

Some points:

* Gross stocks (vehicles on dealer lots? - the numbers are not shown here) have risen from 0 in June to 6,200 in October.

* From June through August, production was much higher than sales and you can see that Estimated Dirt Mountain grew quickly (note I have deducted inventory from production to get to Estimated Dirt Mountain).

* Estimated Dirt Mountain has been dropping at a healthy rate beginning in August.

* Beginning in September, Sales and Production have been about the same number each month (indicating that dirt Mountain isn't growing?).

* If we assume a run-rate of about 8,000 per month for the remainder of the 2021 model year, MY21 production will be about 40,500 for MY21, maybe 48,500 for the calendar year.

* If we assume the same 8,000 per month for MY22, MY22 production will be about 96,000.

* If 120,000 of the MY21 reservations were converted to orders (ignoring people dropping off, code 99's, etc) and given 32,000 produced to date (ignoring that some of these are post-March 19 orders), given 6,200 in dealer stocks, there are about 85,000 MY21 reservations to build. In a perfect world at 8,000 a month, it will take 11 months to clear these.

* Hopefully the monthly build rate grows.

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