Bronco Pricing Forecast

[jb56]

You are buying a Bronco in 2022 for the 2021 price protected MSRP. That is $2,800\$2445 off the 2022 price and a lot more off of the 2023 MSRP that will hit in a few months. While possible, if you sold your Bronco in 2023 you would need to be hugely unlucky with market forces to 'take a bath'.

If your expectation with your Bronco ownership is that you can 'have fun with it' and sell your DEPRECIATING asset in 2023 for more than you paid for it then maybe you need to recalibrate your expectations to prepare for potentially different outcomes in a very volatile industry vertical.

Honestly, this amount of mental masturbation and hand wringing doesn't seem worth the energy. I recommend you start researching Bronco accessories like the rest of us that are waiting or seek out an appreciating asset that will let you enjoy a much better value proposition.

So I start a thread asking about people's opinions on the pricing forecast for broncos. People participate in the thread and basically say that I shouldn't worry about this. I explain why I'm thinking about it. And you say I'm wasting energy on mental masturbation and should just look for accessories.

And you do this, on a forum about broncos, in a section called "ordering pricing production . . ." on a thread called "bronco pricing forecast"

And meanwhile, you don't actually respond to the question or any of the data I've shared or other people have shared.

Also, I may choose to buy the bronco either way. I may choose to purchase it even if it will depreciate by more than $5,000 in a year. But it's still one factor. One factor among many.

if I'm going to buy a vehicle that is going to get 17 MPG, should I get a superduty diesel instead?
Should I wait to see when my lightning reservation turns into an order?
Should I just keep my current pickup and wait and see what happens to the used market over the next few years?
Am I really happy with this Area 51 color, which is obviously amazing, when the Red looks so damn good.
I have solar panels, maybe I should just order a Telsa Model X instead and then just use my current truck for adventures.
And many more.

And so this one factor is something I'm curious about, and frankly, I've seen some really great and informative responses. It's been well worth my time.

I'm leaning toward buying it. But about 40% of me wants to wait, see how things go, and buy a Red one 12-18 months.

I can think about this and think about accessories at the same time, by the way.

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[grenjith7]

"and you want someone to agree"

With what? I want someone to agree with what?

When I reserved a Bronco, almost two years ago, I didn't own an expedition. The Bronco was going to replace our small family SUV. But now I do own an expedition and an F150. If I buy the bronco, it will be a third vehicle that I buy for fun. So the "value" of that asset is important. If that asset will be worth as much or more than I paid for it, then it's kind of a no brainer to buy it and have fun with it and then if I decide to sell, I don't take a bath.

My comfort level with buying the bronco has nothing to do with the ability to afford it. That's not the issue. But personally, I'm worried that in late 2023, Broncos will not be hard to find and it won't be hard to buy a new bronco for MSRP. If that happens, the value of used broncos will absolutely drop significantly below the new price. Right now, used broncos are so expensive because people don't want to wait forever to get a new one.

The FJ cruiser is not a good comparison. It was discontinued like 8 years ago. If Ford discontinued bronco production, then it would be a no brainer to buy one.

Looks like you are planning to sell the vehicle after you took delivery of it. It appears to be the case, as you are concerned with the used bronco values next year. If that is the case, it is better to sell it sooner than later. Money today is worth more than money in future- FIN 101.

My belief is shortages are not going away any time soon. So far, people have paid way less for vehicles than what vehicles were actually worth. Think as most of the upstream suppliers took the hit. Given CoVID gave them a break from that vicious cycle, they are not going to drink that wafer thin margin Kool-aid any more. Prices have increased and it is going to stay that way or with a minor correction.

In all likelihood, prices will remain steady and OEMs will have no other option but to raise prices to make meaningful profits. With rising inflation and lower savings rate, it is better to get a worthwhile vehicle and hold some value for a short term. I dont see any massive expansion in public transportation. i dont know about long term-

 

[Mo’ Money Mo’ Broncos]

"and you want someone to agree"

With what? I want someone to agree with what?

When I reserved a Bronco, almost two years ago, I didn't own an expedition. The Bronco was going to replace our small family SUV. But now I do own an expedition and an F150. If I buy the bronco, it will be a third vehicle that I buy for fun. So the "value" of that asset is important. If that asset will be worth as much or more than I paid for it, then it's kind of a no brainer to buy it and have fun with it and then if I decide to sell, I don't take a bath.

My comfort level with buying the bronco has nothing to do with the ability to afford it. That's not the issue. But personally, I'm worried that in late 2023, Broncos will not be hard to find and it won't be hard to buy a new bronco for MSRP. If that happens, the value of used broncos will absolutely drop significantly below the new price. Right now, used broncos are so expensive because people don't want to wait forever to get a new one.

The FJ cruiser is not a good comparison. It was discontinued like 8 years ago. If Ford discontinued bronco production, then it would be a no brainer to buy one.

Agree with you that it’s not a good choice to buy it, because it sounds like you think it’ll be a bad choice based on what you’ve said in this thread.

That’s the exact reason I used the FJ comparison. If you applied the same “wait for cost to come down” to how the FJ played out, it wouldnt Have worked out bc they discontinued it after only about 3 years. I’m just saying we don’t know for sure what will happen to the market, so I’d make a simple decision on whether you can afford it and whether you specifically want a bronco and not basing it on things we don’t know for sure.

ive had similar thoughts, so like I said I wasn’t being rude. But the conclusion I’ve come to is, I specifically want a bronco and as long as I can afford it, everything else doesn’t matter, bc I’m not buying it to sell it, I’m buying it to keep it.

 

[jb56]

Agree with you that it’s not a good choice to buy it, because it sounds like you think it’ll be a bad choice based on what you’ve said in this thread.

That’s the exact reason I used the FJ comparison. If you applied the same “wait for cost to come down” to how the FJ played out, it wouldnt Have worked out bc they discontinued it after only about 3 years. I’m just saying we don’t know for sure what will happen to the market, so I’d make a simple decision on whether you can afford it and whether you specifically want a bronco and not basing it on things we don’t know for sure.

ive had similar thoughts, so like I said I wasn’t being rude. But the conclusion I’ve come to is, I specifically want a bronco and as long as I can afford it, everything else doesn’t matter, bc I’m not buying it to sell it, I’m buying it to keep it.

yeah, and that’s cool too. I like cars.
the bronco is amazing. But I also love other options for very different reasons.

 

[LarryZiegler]

This is an odd comment. Don't you think it's a reasonable way to analyze the question to look at whether you might be able to get the same bronco with low miles for $45,000 in a year or two? Or if you might be able to get a bronco for $5,000 under sticker in a year?

And it does make me a little uncomfortable to pay sticker for a high-end bronco. When I purchased my F150 in 2019 and my Wife's expedition in 2020, we paid way under sticker.

If you've been following the Bronco since it was initially introduced, then you'll have seen the pricing difference posted between MSRP and Invoice, which is not very much. I took delivery of my loaded OBX last Dec that stickered at just under $53,500 and I paid the invoice price of almost $51,700 with X Plan.....almost $2,000 in savings, so not much off. Ford is readjusting their pricing structure and its my opinion that MSRP will be with us for quite some time. A Bronco is more of a specialty vehicle than a high volume seller like the F-150 is. It is also my belief that the Bronco will have good resale value once purchased....as someone else brought up, just look at used Wranglers.

 

[Zero_chance]

Hey Everyone! TL;DR - Do you think we'll see excess Bronco supply in the next year or two and whether we will see significant price drops in the new and lightly used Bronco market.

Longer version:

I'm very excited about my Bronco (Wildtrak, Area 51, Lux) to be delivered in a few weeks. Although I hope that we will love our Bronco and keep it for years I'm just slightly worried that we are going to see massive price drops in vehicles over the next year or so.

My dealer is selling a near-identical bronco for $13,000 over sticker, so as of right now, you'd think there's no chance of being very upside down in a bronco. And I'm not looking to flip mine.

It seems to me that there are a ton of used cars on the market and that Ford in particular is starting to produce way more Broncos. Two years ago and before the Pandemic, I never would have paid sticker price for a vehicle And although the Bronco is an awesome vehicle, paying $61,000 for it makes me a little uncomfortable.

I talked to a regional Ford rep and he said privately that he thought the pricing on Broncos would cool, but probably wouldn't drop below sticker, although he thought the market generally would see huge excess inventory.

But if Ford is really putting out thousands of broncos a week, will we hit excess supply? Will there continue to be massive demand for a relatively small SUV that gets 17 MPG and costs over $60k? Will demand wane for the higher trims?

On the other hand, it seems like Jeep sells about 3800 Wranglers per week most years.

If you look at old Wranglers that have always still commanded high price tags even before the recent artificial inflation, I don’t see any reason to worry. If you’re worried you won’t be able to drive it around and then sell it in a year or so and make a profit from what you originally paid… then you’re probably out of luck, as this nonsense of paying more than MSRP only lasts so long. I suspect if COVID and chip shortage hadn’t occurred, we’d already be at or very close to normal.

 

[onthelookout]

As others have noted, I wouldn't expect supply chain issues to be worked through for another 12-18 months at minimum. Day 1 reservation holder still waiting on the vehicle, and I could foresee this demand continuing through FY23 (entirely speculative). Will ADM be able to remain as high over the period, I would guess not, but I have no idea what happens with FY23 supply.

In speaking with several dealers (not just Ford), stock inventory is 10-14 days and well below historical levels. But, several dealers I know of experienced their strongest months in May all-time or over the last 2-3 years. Demand seems to be there, but it may be dependent on the vehicle and category in question. For me, getting a Bronco at or close to MSRP in this market makes sense given I expect depreciation to be lower vs. other new car models, and the used market remains elevated for vehicles I'm interested in (I was just able to sell my daily that I purchased the end of 2020 for over $15k more than I paid, but certainly not expecting the next to be another appreciating asset).

 

[AZ_Liberty]

Supply is not going to catch up for another 16-20 months.

The MIC top constraint is probably never going to go away. Ford still has not invested in additional tooling, and we all know that Webasto can only make about 70% of the demand.

By next year, I can see soft top OBX or Big Bend 4-door models going at MSRP. 2-doors, Stick-shifts, anything with a hard top, and Badlands/Wildtrack will still command a premium.

The other thing that is going to keep resale values high for the next few years is increasing monetary inflation and price increases. Every time Ford bumps the price of the new year's (or mid-year) model that will drag up resale, at least in devalued dollars.

By the time I get my 2021 Base Model, (now a 2022) in 2023 the MSRP will have gone up by more than 10%. That's quite a bit of built in devaluation.

In general, capability upgrades depreciate much less than luxury or electronic gee-gaws. Lux packages and all the electronic thingamajigs lose value very quickly, because they get outdated very quickly. So an F-150 Platinum depreciates faster than an XLT. A 2WD F-150 depreciates faster than a 4x4.

On cars like Mustangs and Wranglers, a stick shift holds value better than a automatic, and I expect the same on the Bronco.

In other words, if you buy a Bronco with either 2021 or 2022 price protection, and keep it 2-3 years, you are not going to lose your shirt.

On the other hand, you have an Expedition, so you have to ask what does the Bronco do for you that the Expy does not, and vice versa. Right now, I am driving my wife's old 2007 Expy EL. It runs fine, AC is nice and cold, but it's an automatic and dear God do I hate driving it. It's also a pain to park. And it's Oxford White (bleh). I call it the Great White Whale and expect Captain Ahab to crest the horizon at any moment. And 98% of the time it's just me commuting to work.

And did I mention it's a god-damn automatic?

 

[Tunagates]

Based on your comments in this thread it doesn’t sound like you feel comfortable buying it, and you want someone to agree. I don’t say that to be rude, I say that just to point out if you don’t really feel 100% comfortable buying a 60k vehicle, do not buy it regardless of market predictions or others opinions.

If you can afford the bronco, if you’re gonna keep it a long time like I plan to with mine, and if you want the EXACT one you ordered, then buy it!! Who cares if you could’ve got one 3k-5k less a few years from now.. It won’t matter 10 years down the road and you’ll have exactly what you ordered. Plus you won’t keep waiting more years for something you can afford and enjoy today. The value to me comes from owning exactly what you wanted and driving it for a decade or more. The way I see it, (assuming you are fine financially) it’s impossible to regret buying something you absolutely love and use every single day.

One last thing, I bet a lot of ppl around 08 waited on an FJ bc of gas prices/economy. They probably also thought they could just get one in the future. Now it’s hard to find an FJ and they’re highly desirable and hold value amazingly. None of us can fully predict what will happen, so I’d base the decision strictly on financial affordability and how much you love the bronco you ordered.

Well said dude.

 

[Tunagates]

So I start a thread asking about people's opinions on the pricing forecast for broncos. People participate in the thread and basically say that I shouldn't worry about this. I explain why I'm thinking about it. And you say I'm wasting energy on mental masturbation and should just look for accessories.

And you do this, on a forum about broncos, in a section called "ordering pricing production . . ." on a thread called "bronco pricing forecast"

And meanwhile, you don't actually respond to the question or any of the data I've shared or other people have shared.

Also, I may choose to buy the bronco either way. I may choose to purchase it even if it will depreciate by more than $5,000 in a year. But it's still one factor. One factor among many.

if I'm going to buy a vehicle that is going to get 17 MPG, should I get a superduty diesel instead?
Should I wait to see when my lightning reservation turns into an order?
Should I just keep my current pickup and wait and see what happens to the used market over the next few years?
Am I really happy with this Area 51 color, which is obviously amazing, when the Red looks so damn good.
I have solar panels, maybe I should just order a Telsa Model X instead and then just use my current truck for adventures.
And many more.

And so this one factor is something I'm curious about, and frankly, I've seen some really great and informative responses. It's been well worth my time.

I'm leaning toward buying it. But about 40% of me wants to wait, see how things go, and buy a Red one 12-18 months.

I can think about this and think about accessories at the same time, by the way.

Area 51 is a huge disappointment… I’ve seen others who bought it say the same on here. If you’re leaning red - go red dude. Both reds are such better colors on this vehicle. I know color is very subjective - just my thoughts. From what I gather, you should probably wait.

 

[jb56]

Area 51 is a huge disappointment… I’ve seen others who bought it say the same on here. If you’re leaning red - go red dude. Both reds are such better colors on this vehicle. I know color is very subjective - just my thoughts. From what I gather, you should probably wait.

are you saying Area 51 is a huge disappointment because it looks different in person and is not what people expected? Or other problems with it? Or it just doesn’t look good to you?

 

[AZ_Liberty]

are you saying Area 51 is a huge disappointment because it looks different in person and is not what people expected?

Every single color Ford has looks 1 - very different in person, and 2 - very different in different lighting.

Anyone who ordered any color based on the Configurator will be disappointed.

I like A51, but it's also the most popular color.

 

[Tunagates]

are you saying Area 51 is a huge disappointment because it looks different in person and is not what people expected? Or other problems with it? Or it just doesn’t look good to you?

I’ve talked to people who regret Area 51, and I personally just don’t think it looks as good in person as any other color. When i was ordering I ran through every color, ive seen every color in person, and Area 51 is the only one that disappointed me. So far the sleeper color for me is Cactus Grey. Ive only seen 3 in person - the one I saw at night looked better than any other color. I was lucky enough to get an FE so lightning blue was available… i would’ve gone with AB had it been available on the model or Race Red but it worked out, I love the lightning blue. I have a 2 door black base mansquatch on order as well (I got black so I can do the red/orange/yellow 70s striping). I’m not doing any major style mods on the FE.

 

[Lowdogg]

I’ve talked to people who regret Area 51, and I personally just don’t think it looks as good in person as any other color. When i was ordering I ran through every color, ive seen every color in person, and Area 51 is the only one that disappointed me. So far the sleeper color for me is Cactus Grey. Ive only seen 3 in person - the one I saw at night looked better than any other color. I was lucky enough to get an FE so lightning blue was available… i would’ve gone with AB had it been available on the model or Race Red but it worked out, I love the lightning blue. I have a 2 door black base mansquatch on order as well (I got black so I can do the red/orange/yellow 70s striping). I’m not doing any major style mods on the FE.

Couldn’t disagree more here. I love my A51, more than I expected to.

 

[Heffe66413]

For anyone who thinks that Ford is all of a sudden producing a lot of Broncos and will soon meet demand. Keep in mind that in 1965, it produced a new car that was also very popular. It was called Mustang. And in 1965, they made.... 560,000 of them... and then they produced more the next year. Bronco production numbers are still pathetic. Demand will stay high.

My guess is that Ford benefits from limited production numbers. 1. Most Bronco are by order so they are not producing excess. 2. By using that method Ford does not have to sell any broncos at a discount. 3. By having a limited production vehicle, the enthusiasm factor remains high.
Ford Is going to the direct order model for many of its vehicles.

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