Ford agrees to $9.2 billion US government loan

[Imonamoose]

I don't know about all that, but for the next few decades until other tech comes there should be enough, are you familiar with the Salton Sea's reserve of lithium?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/the-salton-sea-could-produce-the-worlds-greenest-lithium.html

Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway are big in it and it (the mining/extraction process) produces energy. Win-win.

Their shares are too expensive for me but I would love to have a couple of shares:

https://robinhood.com/stocks/BRK.A
$511,135.01

Opportunistic investing by savy titans of industry should not be confused with an endorsement. Leaning heavily into rare earth's mining by buffet is not an indicator of EVs long term market success. Corelation does not equal causation.

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[Bugkillah]

Yeah, won’t be long now before this thread is locked.

 

[MLRey]

Let's hope they can rapidly transition to the new solid state batteries when the time comes, is that on Ford's radar?

Lots of hype about solid state batteries. Very much like fusion power always far in the future. I wish they were real sooner but don’t believe the hype. Most of the pr you see is just so the companies can tout how green they are.

 

[AK SNO RIDER]

As a Lightning and Bronco owner and member of both forums. It’s a night and day difference in the reactions to this news.

As much as we all love the ICE freedom we currently have, EV’s are here to stay and I applaud Ford’s efforts to become a leader in EV’s.

If you haven’t experienced a Lightning You need to do it. The only complaint is range. But that only affects less than 1% of my use cases. It is superior to an ICE F150 in nearly all other aspects.

The Lightning really is substantially nicer than the real F150. It's a shame they put so much more effort into the disgrace that is an EV.

Electric vehicles are more fun to drive than people give them credit for, and the Lightning and Mach E are both very nice cars, but I loathe the battery stuff.

Lithium mines (and the other metals in the batteries) are disgusting and it's unbelievable to me that they are marketed as green technology.

I wish people would put more effort into Hydrogen vehicles.

 

[TopRecon]

Good, maybe they'll stop jacking up Bronco prices every quarter now that they have outside funding.

 

[ColoradoKid26]

I agree with you. EV tech is not scalable and is generally impractical outside of temperate dense city commuter applications. Total pipe dream.

Cold weather climates, rural areas, long distances, high battery replacment costs, and scarcity/high cost of raw materials are all achilies heels of EV. In truth, without subsidy the EV vehicles are not even widely wanted by the comsumer or the free market as evidence of their low adoption rate.

Finally and probably most importantly, EV represents a massive environmental impact due to the need for large amounts of rare earth elements and materials in the production supply chain. the relatively short lifespan of the batteries makes this issue a compounding problem as more vehicles are thrust into the market. The blunt reality is that there are not enough raw materials or mines operating on the planet to support a full transition to EV, and there likely never will be.

Thank you.
Very well said and explained.

Are Tesla's cool? sure. The technology is amazing.
I think we'll look back in 20 years (if we make it that long) and realize that this shift to EV's is a major fuckup. It's easier to fool a man than to convince him he's been fooled.
But I'll go 'boom harder' while the virtue signalers pet their EV in their driveway.

 

[flip]

No one asked but I'm going to give my opinion as a dealer. I don't represent all dealers but know a bunch that feel as I do so this is a mix of all of the different thoughts.

Tesla is a niche brand with a customer base, both generational and in mindset, than the traditional Ford customer. This applied more in Tesla's beginning than it is now as the EV business has gotten more traction.

*Trigger warning* so this thread doesn't get locked but the following does involve political matters and IMO, one of the biggest driving factors to push by the Big Three.

California was/is the biggest adopter of the EV market due to their already tight emission regulations and opening the way to large scale charging infrastructure. There are a bunch of arguments to be made how it was done, costs, scalability, sustainability or long term impacts of these decisions. Not my monkeys, not my circus. Several other states (you know who you are) are quick to follow California's lead once a working model has been tested, mirrored by another dozen or so states. Again, decisions all made by elected politicians at the state level.

Fast forward to about years ago and California decided to further restrict emissions and set a standard where auto manufacturers were required to sell a certain percentage of ZEVS in state to continue selling ICE. Some other states came up with their own versions and the manufacturers freaked out by the though of losing access to these large markets. Ford's bread and butter is pickups and would hit their commercial business really hard.

California has now drawn the line on all ICE, not just vehicles, with a dozen other states again, following their lead. In all of this I'm sure there has been tons of lobbying from any and all stakeholders to either set their clients up to make a bunch of $$ or try to keep them from losing it. I think Ford is looking at this not so much as we want to do this as much as we have to.

My question is where is the actual need that justifies the bum rush? We aren't running out of fossil fuels, we aren't running out of components to build ICE vehicles, no one is asking for expensive vehicles with no range and too expensive to fix once out of warranty (disposable) and fuel stations/suppliers haven't experienced a mass extinction event. Where's the emergency? I understand where manufacturers might want a piece of Tesla's action now that they've seen the success but creating a competing model, does not require the multiple billions that Ford is throwing at it.

Farley has been frothing at the mouth saying we have to "win" the EV race. My reading of "win" means the first large manufacturer to come to market with the hopes of grabbing all of the non Tesla customers before everyone else. That assuming Ford makes products that aren't garbage, can produce them at scale, are affordable, are profitable and that people want to buy. This reminds me of that white board that has idea at the top then an arrow to profit with nothing in between.

Again, not speaking for other dealers but if this is such a slam dunk, great idea, everyone excited we're getting into new territory, why aren't we all happy to drop nearly $1M to get on board. The investment is obviously a big deal but if we could see a reasonable ROI, few would be hesitant. Either we're all dumb and can't see the vision of those in charge or we do and it's that white board I mentioned earlier.

The requirements to sell and service EVs are insane. Before everyone starts in with, "screw the dealers, I'll fix it myself or I'll just take it to my guy around the corner", I'm going to stop you there. The stuff Ford is producing now has issues your "guy" doesn't have the tools, technology or training to mess with nor will likely want to invest tens of thousands of dollars in each manufacturer's tools, to mess with something that was designed to be throw away.

While margins change, EVs aren't a money maker, at least not for dealers. I suspect the margins will be less than what are made on similar ICE models based on what I've seen. They expect dealers to make up the difference selling subscription services they haven't disclosed, BlueCruise being the exception. For the honor of selling an EV, we can expect nearly no maintenance work, the wear items (tires, wipers, brakes) are all extremely low margin jobs and we have to give you a free wash and give you at least 20% more charge than what you came in with, for free. Sound like a great deal, huh? In a nutshell, Ford is saying we're going EV, if you want to continue to be a dealer, you need to get on board or we will slowly choke you out by reducing your allocations. Since we (Ford) are investing all of this money to go all in to "win" we need you (dealers) to subsidize our plan by investing in charging infrastructure with no clear line of ROI.

We've have dozens of Lighting and Mach Es reserved by customers and Ford can't get them built. Dealers have asked the management team many times what the plan is or how they're going to produce a million EVs in a couple of years when they can't get 18 month old orders built. You would think that if there was a good rebuttal or plan they would lay it out there to try and ease some of the trepidation dealers are having. Guess what? Every time the question is asked, all you hear is crickets. No way there's a plan sitting there that's soooooo secret not one word can be spoken lest our competitors glimpse at the secret spice recipe the brain trust within the depths of Ford has created.

I think Ford's position is oh shit, a bunch of states (politicians) with large populations have decided EVs are going to save the world so we need to get on this so we don't lose our truck title. Who cares if any of this is a good investment or will generate a fair profit in return, we need to be first with all of the promises so we can "win". Product? No, no, no. We just tell all of the big news outlets we're making a bunch of super secret, new product so Uncle Bill can watch his stock value go up. What do you mean if that doesn't work? We just come out and blame supply chain problems for a few more years then gradually tell them battery technology just isn't there so we can temper range expectations. Of course we're hoping for government money. China, US, Mexico, yea. Don't care where it comes from, let's just do this and can figure out the rest along the way. Just tell the dealers BOHIC.

 

[ColoradoKid26]

 

[Sherminiator]

I get it, many of us are just having a little fun. Remember when people called GM, Government Motors, for taking a bailout loan and Ford never did?

Kind of ironic that the shoe is on the other foot now.

But this isn’t a bailout. Big difference

 

[Razorbak86]

No one asked but I'm going to give my opinion as a dealer. I don't represent all dealers but know a bunch that feel as I do so this is a mix of all of the different thoughts.

Tesla is a niche brand with a customer base, both generational and in mindset, than the traditional Ford customer. This applied more in Tesla's beginning than it is now as the EV business has gotten more traction.

*Trigger warning* so this thread doesn't get locked but the following does involve political matters and IMO, one of the biggest driving factors to push by the Big Three.

California was/is the biggest adopter of the EV market due to their already tight emission regulations and opening the way to large scale charging infrastructure. There are a bunch of arguments to be made how it was done, costs, scalability, sustainability or long term impacts of these decisions. Not my monkeys, not my circus. Several other states (you know who you are) are quick to follow California's lead once a working model has been tested, mirrored by another dozen or so states. Again, decisions all made by elected politicians at the state level.

Fast forward to about years ago and California decided to further restrict emissions and set a standard where auto manufacturers were required to sell a certain percentage of ZEVS in state to continue selling ICE. Some other states came up with their own versions and the manufacturers freaked out by the though of losing access to these large markets. Ford's bread and butter is pickups and would hit their commercial business really hard.

California has now drawn the line on all ICE, not just vehicles, with a dozen other states again, following their lead. In all of this I'm sure there has been tons of lobbying from any and all stakeholders to either set their clients up to make a bunch of $$ or try to keep them from losing it. I think Ford is looking at this not so much as we want to do this as much as we have to.

My question is where is the actual need that justifies the bum rush? We aren't running out of fossil fuels, we aren't running out of components to build ICE vehicles, no one is asking for expensive vehicles with no range and too expensive to fix once out of warranty (disposable) and fuel stations/suppliers haven't experienced a mass extinction event. Where's the emergency? I understand where manufacturers might want a piece of Tesla's action now that they've seen the success but creating a competing model, does not require the multiple billions that Ford is throwing at it.

Farley has been frothing at the mouth saying we have to "win" the EV race. My reading of "win" means the first large manufacturer to come to market with the hopes of grabbing all of the non Tesla customers before everyone else. That assuming Ford makes products that aren't garbage, can produce them at scale, are affordable, are profitable and that people want to buy. This reminds me of that white board that has idea at the top then an arrow to profit with nothing in between.

Again, not speaking for other dealers but if this is such a slam dunk, great idea, everyone excited we're getting into new territory, why aren't we all happy to drop nearly $1M to get on board. The investment is obviously a big deal but if we could see a reasonable ROI, few would be hesitant. Either we're all dumb and can't see the vision of those in charge or we do and it's that white board I mentioned earlier.

The requirements to sell and service EVs are insane. Before everyone starts in with, "screw the dealers, I'll fix it myself or I'll just take it to my guy around the corner", I'm going to stop you there. The stuff Ford is producing now has issues your "guy" doesn't have the tools, technology or training to mess with nor will likely want to invest tens of thousands of dollars in each manufacturer's tools, to mess with something that was designed to be throw away.

While margins change, EVs aren't a money maker, at least not for dealers. I suspect the margins will be less than what are made on similar ICE models based on what I've seen. They expect dealers to make up the difference selling subscription services they haven't disclosed, BlueCruise being the exception. For the honor of selling an EV, we can expect nearly no maintenance work, the wear items (tires, wipers, brakes) are all extremely low margin jobs and we have to give you a free wash and give you at least 20% more charge than what you came in with, for free. Sound like a great deal, huh? In a nutshell, Ford is saying we're going EV, if you want to continue to be a dealer, you need to get on board or we will slowly choke you out by reducing your allocations. Since we (Ford) are investing all of this money to go all in to "win" we need you (dealers) to subsidize our plan by investing in charging infrastructure with no clear line of ROI.

We've have dozens of Lighting and Mach Es reserved by customers and Ford can't get them built. Dealers have asked the management team many times what the plan is or how they're going to produce a million EVs in a couple of years when they can't get 18 month old orders built. You would think that if there was a good rebuttal or plan they would lay it out there to try and ease some of the trepidation dealers are having. Guess what? Every time the question is asked, all you hear is crickets. No way there's a plan sitting there that's soooooo secret not one word can be spoken lest our competitors glimpse at the secret spice recipe the brain trust within the depths of Ford has created.

I think Ford's position is oh shit, a bunch of states (politicians) with large populations have decided EVs are going to save the world so we need to get on this so we don't lose our truck title. Who cares if any of this is a good investment or will generate a fair profit in return, we need to be first with all of the promises so we can "win". Product? No, no, no. We just tell all of the big news outlets we're making a bunch of super secret, new product so Uncle Bill can watch his stock value go up. What do you mean if that doesn't work? We just come out and blame supply chain problems for a few more years then gradually tell them battery technology just isn't there so we can temper range expectations. Of course we're hoping for government money. China, US, Mexico, yea. Don't care where it comes from, let's just do this and can figure out the rest along the way. Just tell the dealers BOHIC.

@flip, I understand your concerns and trepidations, because we have talked about this in the past, so I know the thoughts you posted come from your heart.

I am genuinely curious about what your family has decided to do?

For better or worse — and pardon the last-generation reference to the pre-ICE age — your family has hitched its horse (Ruxer dealership) to this wagon (FoMoCo).

Are you going to make the investment to capture more allocations in the short term, or save your hard-earned cash (wait and see) and live with lower allocations, possibly long-term?

Those appear to be the only practical choices, right? It would probably be very difficult to align with another OEM at this stage in the game and execute a new franchise agreement, and the option of going independent may not be palatable.

FWIW, many companies have been successful and profitable in declining industries by adopting a harvest strategy, but most of them have had to streamline significantly to be successful.

 

[Figmo]

“But it’s just a loan. They hafta pay it back!!”

 

[JeffL]

i don't care about the ICE vs EV garbage i see this as 3 new manufacturing facilities in america. a good thing.

 

[Sherminiator]

My question is where is the actual need that justifies the bum rush? We aren't running out of fossil fuels, we aren't running out of components to build ICE vehicles, no one is asking for expensive vehicles with no range and too expensive to fix once out of warranty (disposable) and fuel stations/suppliers haven't experienced a mass extinction event. Where's the emergency? I understand where manufacturers might want a piece of Tesla's action now that they've seen the success but creating a competing model, does not require the multiple billions that Ford is throwing at it.

Not sure what you mean by a bum rush with this-

California and a couple other states that use their emissions laws are planning on banning the sale of the vast majority of ICE engines in 2035, which is roughly 12 years away.
Given how the auto industry operates-it has an extremely long lead time-a completely new product that doesn’t have an existing platform or drivetrain takes at least five years to develop and tool up for before it hits the market. So basically Ford and others are planning on what is going to hit the market in 2028 plus right now, which is only 7 years from the cut off or a MCE or so for new product starting production in 2028/29.
ICE will still be available, but given the expected switch over from ICE to BEV this decade, it might not be profitable to keep it in production till 2035.

 

[IROCnRoll]

Big swing, bigger miss.
EV's are a pipe dream.

You realize EV's exist, right?

 

[ColoradoKid26]

You realize EV's exist, right?

Really....I just thought it was conceptual.
Maybe you should keep reading this thread, just sayin'.

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