MAP Employees Confirm 2021 Bronco Hits Full Production August 2. Job 1 Still Starts May 3

[Compta38]

yup. I certainly would.

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[Chuck.K]

Did some math - Assumptions (assuming post 1 in this thread is actually correct):
May 3rd - 350 units per shift, 2 shifts per day, 75% were Broncos, 5.25 days per week (factor in non-work Saturdays, holiday, conservative "fudge" factor) - June 7th starts retail builds - added 12.5 units per week (per shift) ramping to 600 units per shift on "Full Tag Relief Production" Sept 20th date (again, conservative).....came up with 125,212 Broncos assuming MY21 was till December 20th (subtract 4725 per week if over shot the December date/week switch to MY22) - of course the big unknown is parts/chips/fires/pandemics......
Am I missing something or my math messed up? We should see a lot more than 60K Broncos shouldn't we??
Link to math

 

[Bdisco]

June 6th build here:

I foresee two scenarios:

1. Early builds will be top notch because they will be built by the "A Team". The workers that teach others how to assemble everything correctly. They will be highly scrutinized. Nothing less then perfection. In twenty years these early build broncos will be the one's commanding top cryptocurrency on bring a trailer.

2. F@c& it lets get these things out already. "We'll issue a recall if we have to, hopefully they'll be out of warranty by then."

 

[ZackDanger]

Did some math - Assumptions (assuming post 1 in this thread is actually correct):
May 3rd - 350 units per shift, 2 shifts per day, 75% were Broncos, 5.25 days per week (factor in non-work Saturdays, holiday, conservative "fudge" factor) - June 7th starts retail builds - added 12.5 units per week (per shift) ramping to 600 units per shift on "Full Tag Relief Production" Sept 20th date (again, conservative).....came up with 125,212 Broncos assuming MY21 was till December 20th (subtract 4725 per week if over shot the December date/week switch to MY22) - of course the big unknown is parts/chips/fires/pandemics......
Am I missing something or my math messed up? We should see a lot more than 60K Broncos shouldn't we??
Link to math

Where are you getting the 75% Bronco ratio?

 

[Chuck.K]

Where are you getting the 75% Bronco ratio?

Taking liberties (guessing) based on part of the first post in this thread:
"It’s also worth noting that Ford has more than 100,000 firm orders for the mid-size utility vehicle with Ranger underpinnings, which is why the Ford Motor Company will likely focus on making as many Broncos as possible. Given that every dealer has the Ranger in stock and the mid-size pickup truck sold 24,166 units in the first quarter of the year in the United States, it’s extremely obvious that “likely focus” is an understatement on my part."

So - 75% units being Broncos is a swag.....

 

[bdub2you]

I might if it turns out I could have gotten a white roof in January (but right now it seems like the white roof will only be available in special "heritage" edition that is likely going to be an overpriced special edition or trim).

 

[GlowingMoose]

I know you're all hung up on the 2 shift thing but It's already been well established by people in the know they're not building that many Broncos.

 

[GlowingMoose]

I know you're all hung up on the 2 shift thing but It's already been well established by people in the know they're not building that many Broncos. I ran thr same numbers you did a month ago and was quickly put in my place and was told 50~60K MY21 Broncos.

 

[firefox33]

Did some math - Assumptions (assuming post 1 in this thread is actually correct):
May 3rd - 350 units per shift, 2 shifts per day, 75% were Broncos, 5.25 days per week (factor in non-work Saturdays, holiday, conservative "fudge" factor) - June 7th starts retail builds - added 12.5 units per week (per shift) ramping to 600 units per shift on "Full Tag Relief Production" Sept 20th date (again, conservative).....came up with 125,212 Broncos assuming MY21 was till December 20th (subtract 4725 per week if over shot the December date/week switch to MY22) - of course the big unknown is parts/chips/fires/pandemics......
Am I missing something or my math messed up? We should see a lot more than 60K Broncos shouldn't we??
Link to math

A Ford Engineer who said he was involved in the planning of the Bronco/Ranger production at MAP once posted that MAP was designed to run 72 units an hour with 2 10 hour shifts and Saturdays as needed. The initial ratio of Broncos to Rangers was 43 Broncos and 29 Rangers, but MAP would be capable of running any mix. Mix would always be subject to market demand and part availability.

 

[Vladytom]

Maybe it's time already to call these upcoming Broncos... MY22

 

[Chuck.K]

A Ford Engineer who said he was involved in the planning of the Bronco/Ranger production at MAP once posted that MAP was designed to run 72 units an hour with 2 10 hour shifts and Saturdays as needed. The initial ratio of Broncos to Rangers was 43 Broncos and 29 Rangers, but MAP would be capable of running any mix. Mix would always be subject to market demand and part availability.

So that is approx 60% Bronco, 40% Ranger........with all the same math, swapping in 60% for 75% = 100170 Broncos and also worth noting, I stayed with the 350 ramp up to 600 per shift......which is conservative as compared to 72 units/hr.....which would be 720 per shift (10 hr shift).

My take is that Ford is intentionally underestimating (around 50K) to temper expectations due to parts availability......definite unknowns there.......but what this math does say is that, MAP and Ford are very capable of cranking out 100K of MY21 Broncos - which is likely great news for those not commodity constrained.........and if they really do focus on Bronco building and have their suppliers work more on Bronco parts than Ranger parts (for example), we could (and should) see a far greater number than 50K MY21 Broncos.......
A few months ago we all thought we had to wait until May to get our estimated build dates......not the case......looks to me like Ford is doing everything (within reason for a business) to make this move faster than initially thought possible. I'm going to be positive and have faith in Ford.......besides, won't get my Bronco any faster being unhappy about it

 

[swooshdave]

Did some math - Assumptions (assuming post 1 in this thread is actually correct):
May 3rd - 350 units per shift, 2 shifts per day, 75% were Broncos, 5.25 days per week (factor in non-work Saturdays, holiday, conservative "fudge" factor) - June 7th starts retail builds - added 12.5 units per week (per shift) ramping to 600 units per shift on "Full Tag Relief Production" Sept 20th date (again, conservative).....came up with 125,212 Broncos assuming MY21 was till December 20th (subtract 4725 per week if over shot the December date/week switch to MY22) - of course the big unknown is parts/chips/fires/pandemics......
Am I missing something or my math messed up? We should see a lot more than 60K Broncos shouldn't we??
Link to math

The only variable you don't have is when they will actually switch over to MY22. I've seen everywhere from Nov-Dec.

I also think that early estimates assumed only a single shift, which may be where the 60k numbers came from.

 

[MorgansRun]

So that is approx 60% Bronco, 40% Ranger........with all the same math, swapping in 60% for 75% = 100170 Broncos and also worth noting, I stayed with the 350 ramp up to 600 per shift......which is conservative as compared to 72 units/hr.....which would be 720 per shift (10 hr shift).

My take is that Ford is intentionally underestimating (around 50K) to temper expectations due to parts availability......definite unknowns there.......but what this math does say is that, MAP and Ford are very capable of cranking out 100K of MY21 Broncos - which is likely great news for those not commodity constrained.........and if they really do focus on Bronco building and have their suppliers work more on Bronco parts than Ranger parts (for example), we could (and should) see a far greater number than 50K MY21 Broncos.......
A few months ago we all thought we had to wait until May to get our estimated build dates......not the case......looks to me like Ford is doing everything (within reason for a business) to make this move faster than initially thought possible. I'm going to be positive and have faith in Ford.......besides, won't get my Bronco any faster being unhappy about it

I like it, but it's just way too optimistic for me.

 

[John Bronco_ I am here]

I like it, but it's just way too optimistic for me.

Just want to be defeatist, don't 'ya. Like my first divorce lawyer kept telling me: "Keep hope alive brother". Little known fact, I was at that rodeo that day soothing a broken heart by riden' broncs. It wasn't very long till I was dating Bo Derek.

 

[vrtical]

orders = $ = happy stock holders, you bet Ford is shifting to the positive side to do whatever it takes to deliver 100k units ASAP. Shot in the arm type stuff

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