7/14 reservation and have been told I'm 2022. Is Ford Production forecasts this poor for '21?

[firsttimefordbuyer]

Some dealers have 1000+ orders to deal with. Over two months that's still inputting 16/day. Punching it into the computer may be quick but interfacing with the customer will chew up time.

Regardless... Ford is still using this time to get the factory online and get commodities lined up.

exactly. Internal tools (B&P) is critical to automate the process as Ford isn't a startup

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[firsttimefordbuyer]

Who told you that you are a 2022? It's possible your dealership got 500 orders in the first four hours and was only allocated 300.

i would ask to convert now anyhow. We don't know how the numbers are going to actually fall. You may even try hopping dealerships.

Sales manager at Walnut Creek Ford (SF Bay Area dealer in CA)

 

[MacHudson]

I’m sure that I’m a 2022. My Rez date was in October. But I’m starting to wonder if I’m actually 2023.

 

[Vigor]

It makes sense however in my work, I"m challenged with these types of things for product launches and demand forecasting, predictive analytics, and market analysis should have positioned Ford to have a strong hypothesis of demand and work on gap analysis of production constraints.

Regardless, at a macro level what you are saying is logical but the dealer allocation impact on customers is the concern. If the problem is really as big as your example, requiring a deposit would more than likely minimize or fix it. Also (probably uncontrollable) there are resellers out there with multiple reservations that could also be constrained to 1 order per buyer household.

You said it best. The allocation model is the biggest and most glaring problem here. Theres nothing we can do about it.

Trying to get a Bronco in 2021 accounting for the 3 factors, is like trying to win the lotto, trying to get first place in a 100m race, and hoping your racing shoes arrive in time for the race all at the same time

 

[Toccoa]

• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.

They are trying to let every dealership have a Bronco to sell. So, if your dealer of choice is full of 7/13-7/15 reservations, you might not make the cut. Even with an early reservation. However, another dealer could have no 7/13-7/15 reservations (unlikely) and a 7/20 can make the cut. Not saying it's fair, but it is what it is. Ford is not allowed to sell directly to the consumer, so this is what you get.

 

[TripleB]

Place your order and wait is all you can do.

 

[firsttimefordbuyer]

Agree. I'm being patient but not sure this mindset should be Ford Mission or Value statements.

 

[xusarmy]

IMO, build your Bronco the way you want. Do not let the dealership tell you you will be a MY22, but let Ford tell you that. Put in your order, and wait until May, when Ford is supposed to come back to you to say….hey this 2.7L engine will push you to <fill in the blank>. At that time you can accept or change your order. My philosophy has always been, if you dont ask, the answer is always going to be NO, so ask for what you want, you may be surprised at the answer.

 

[AcesandEights]

As stated a number of times, they took twice as many reservations as they could build in a year. They're starting production mid-year and that means they can only build as many 2021 as about 25% of the reservations. So, every dealer gets 30% of their reservations allocated, and they'll get as many of those people a 2021 as they can. It's pretty simple math and a basic formula.

The supply (of 2021) is small and the demand is large.

 

[UPnort]

Some people here have been waiting 20 years for this and spent the last year on Fords Rockstar Rollercoaster. Wont be much sympathy on this board. Just gotta get in line, say thank you sir, and ask Ford for another.

 

[wvmtneer]

I’m sure that I’m a 2022. My Rez date was in October. But I’m starting to wonder if I’m actually 2023.

I have an august reservation and very close to being last at Stephens and hope im not 2023 due to allocation.

 

[BigBronco1]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

If this were Tesla, they could structure the reservation system exactly as you wish (and they do). Ford can't do this because they have a dealer network that A. they rely on for distribution and B. has invested significantly in the partnership and the co-marketing with Ford. So Ford has to play the tricky balance between serving the line of customers in order and not screwing their dealer network. If I'm a dealer I want to see the new Bronco coming through my dealership, because it drives traffic to the location and the more traffic the better. I may have long-standing customers who ordered a Bronco and I want to make sure they get one. The allocation model is hardly perfect, but it helps provide better distribution across the network.

 

[BroncoKong Jr.]

Sales manager at Walnut Creek Ford (SF Bay Area dealer in CA)

I don't think there's any way he could know that yet

 

[Squatch]

[Convert] 'em all and let [Ford] sort 'em out

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