7/14 reservation and have been told I'm 2022. Is Ford Production forecasts this poor for '21?

[Cheshire]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

I have an 8:00 am 7/14 reservation at Stephens in WV. I am #92 on their list and they have preliminary allocation of 70 units.

I have a 9:00 pm 7/17 reservation at a CA dealer. I am #8 on their list with about 35 allocations.

My later reservation will be MY 21 and the early one probably not. This is because many enthusiasts moved to Stephens to get a good price, but those savvy forum members were early reservists. I spoke to Ford a couple days ago and they said many folks with 7/14 reservations were complaining because they've been told they will be MY22. The Ford rep said many were unhappy and cancelled their reservation.

The Ford rep also said that if I move dealerships, my place in line, aka time stamp, could be de-prioritized at the new dealer. I asked for clarification on this and she couldn't provide any.

Summary: Total cluster F_ck!

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[firsttimefordbuyer]

I have an 8:00 am 7/14 reservation at Stephens in WV. I am #92 on their list and they have preliminary allocation of 70 units.

I have a 9:00 pm 7/17 reservation at a CA dealer. I am #8 on their list with about 35 allocations.

My later reservation will be MY 21 and the early one probably not. This is because many enthusiasts moved to Stephens to get a good price, but those savvy forum members were early reservists. I spoke to Ford a couple days ago and they said many folks with 7/14 reservations were complaining because they've been told they will be MY22. The Ford rep said many were unhappy and cancelled their reservation.

The Ford rep also said that if I move dealerships, my place in line, aka time stamp, could be de-prioritized at the new dealer. I asked for clarification on this and she couldn't provide any.

Summary: Total cluster F_ck!

I have an 8:00 am 7/14 reservation at Stephens in WV. I am #92 on their list and they have preliminary allocation of 70 units.

I have a 9:00 pm 7/17 reservation at a CA dealer. I am #8 on their list with about 35 allocations.

My later reservation will be MY 21 and the early one probably not. This is because many enthusiasts moved to Stephens to get a good price, but those savvy forum members were early reservists. I spoke to Ford a couple days ago and they said many folks with 7/14 reservations were complaining because they've been told they will be MY22. The Ford rep said many were unhappy and cancelled their reservation.

The Ford rep also said that if I move dealerships, my place in line, aka time stamp, could be de-prioritized at the new dealer. I asked for clarification on this and she couldn't provide any.

Summary: Total cluster F_ck!

Appreciate the information. Makes sense. This is what I think happened to me as well. I was with another dealership and since July they didn’t respond to any communication so finally saw another dealer post on this site so I contacted him and switched. In an email he stated he had my timestamp as the day I switched and asked when I reserved. I have a feeling this was a mistake for me to switch. I’ll just have wait to see what happens.

 

[Wolf]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

Dealerinsider posted this yesterday...it helps explain a little, I think:

 

[Broncoak]

I would hang in there. I would bet many of the first 45 drop out or order late availability items

Thanks, I agree.

 

[RPhillips1972]

I know it sucks but this may make it more clear for you.

Let's say hypothetically 500k people reserved within the first 2 days. Realistically you can't expect Ford, with a max production run of a fraction of that, to be able to produce a Bronco for everyone just because they reserved in the first 2 days.

I'm using hyperbole to make a point. But reality is it doesn't matter if you were day 2 or not. A LOT of people reserved their Broncos within those first few days!

I reserved on 7/21.....was told I was 31st in order at my local dealership, unfortunately they are only getting 17 allocated...maybe some will drop out and I will see a bronco this year

 

[Vigor]

I reserved on 7/21.....was told I was 31st in order at my local dealership, unfortunately they are only getting 17 allocated...maybe some will drop out and I will see a bronco this year

You're right.. People can drop out. Also they get allocated more per how many orders they convert. You still have a slight chance
Definitely convert your order

 

[RPhillips1972]

You're right.. People can drop out. Also they get allocated more per how many orders they convert. You still have s slight chance
Definitely convert your order

waiting for my call......the general manager has been very helpful sofar, doesn't even want a deposit at ordering

 

[toymaster]

OK childrens, put your big boy pants on. Ford does not even know how many allocations a dealer gets so, how in the hell can a salesperson be telling people how many they got? Here is the process from Ford, I can't be the only one that has seen/heard this.... I know a lot of people have but there is a truism: A lie will make it around the world before the truth makes it out the door.

1. Ford has the conversation date, currently, at March 19th. This is to know how many orders they actually have and from what dealers. After these are known then decisions are made.

2. The FIRST thing they look at is the timestamp on the order (which is the one from the reservation), down to seconds.

3. The next thing is how it is optioned, meaning commodities availability and production batching. The usual Ford plant production algorithm will be used to make sure they build as efficiently as possible.

4. Then they look at dealer allocations, basing those on the first three things.

To recap, dealers have no F'n idea how many they will be getting. Everyone is forgetting WE have the reservations not the damn dealer. We chose who would do the paperwork on the unit, that is it. My best guess is that Ford will ship the ones they can produce, based on the above factors, to the dealers that placed the order for them. "Allocations" do not mean a damn thing except for 'stock' orders, of which, there will be zero in 2021 and first of 2022 at least.

Ford has stated they will be sending everyone with an order an email with the expected "window" of production date for their unit. Which may or may not actually happen, it is their best guess with the factors known at that time.

Ford wants to build units and get them sold, they do not care about the dealer, dealers are a necessary evil, picture sharks swimming in the water. This is a large messy operation ran by humans, there will be more bumps in the road for sure; my advice is get your order in if you want to actually buy one. The great filter will be March 19th.

 

[chtucker]

To recap, dealers have no F'n idea how many they will be getting. Everyone is forgetting WE have the reservations not the damn dealer. We chose who would do the paperwork on the unit, that is it. My best guess is that Ford will ship the ones they can produce, based on the above factors, to the dealers that placed the order for them. "Allocations" do not mean a damn thing except for 'stock' orders, of which, there will be zero in 2021 and first of 2022 at least.
Ford has stated they will be sending everyone with an order an email with the expected "window" of production date for their unit. Which may or may not actually happen, it is their best guess with the factors known at that time.



Where have you been? allocations DO factor into being able to fill reservations for 2021. And

 

[toymaster]

^^^^^^^^^ Ford has said they have no idea as of now, after March 19th they can start to make guesses.

If allocations mean something then timestamps do not, you can't have it both ways.

 

[chtucker]

^^^^^^^^^ Ford has said they have no idea as of now, after March 19th they can start to make guesses.

If allocations mean something then timestamps do not, you can't have it both ways.

It's both.. time stamps matter at your dealer, your dealer is only getting a certain number of 2021 Broncos. Some dealers are going to fulfill 7/13 and some 7/14 reservations- others may not.

 

[chtucker]

It's both.. time stamps matter at your dealer, your dealer is only getting a certain number of 2021 Broncos. Some dealers are going to fulfill 7/13 and some 7/14 reservations- others may not.

Some Broncos will be delivered to people with later reservation time stamps because their dealer has 2021 Allocations,
Example
Two reservations, same build, two different dealers, One reservation is 7/14 second is 7/18 at a smaller dealer who didn't try to go national.

7/18 might get a 2021, 7/14 gets a 2022 because their dealer doesn't have an enough allocations

 

[toymaster]

.....7/18 might get a 2021, 7/14 gets a 2022 because their dealer doesn't have an enough allocations

What you are calling "allocations" is determined by converted confirmed orders. These factors are NOT known as of yet. What you have posted is a guess, educated or not it is still a guess, I refer you back to the truism in my first post. If you what you type is true, which it may be, then the timestamps do not mean a damn thing. The truth is, from Ford, the timestamp is the first thing in the equation, followed by options on the order. A 7/18 order may indeed be received before a 7/13 but most likely due to a communities issue.

 

[PSUTE]

When we make conjectures about this, has anyone considered that Ford wants them on the road ASAP in every nook and cranny of the country to build excitement and free advertising? May be an additional algorithm...

 

[TJconvert2.7]

I know it sucks but this may make it more clear for you.

Let's say hypothetically 500k people reserved within the first 2 days. Realistically you can't expect Ford, with a max production run of a fraction of that, to be able to produce a Bronco for everyone just because they reserved in the first 2 days.

I'm using hyperbole to make a point. But reality is it doesn't matter if you were day 2 or not. A LOT of people reserved their Broncos within those first few days!

My dealer told me it took four weeks or something to hit 90k reservations

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