7/14 reservation and have been told I'm 2022. Is Ford Production forecasts this poor for '21?

[firsttimefordbuyer]

I’m probably on an island here, but I don’t think the situation is as dire as many think.

A Ford exec told CNBC they had “almost” 190,000 reservations on 10/28 this would include people with 2 reservations as well. Assuming 50% of these become hard orders, you’re left with 95,000. And then assuming 30% of those orders defer to 2022 (mansquatchs, etc) you have about 70,000 orders for 2021 models which basically matches the planned production of 10,000 units per month for 2021. So in theory enough cars, although dealer allocations could complicate this significantly.

Of course, no one is going to know the conversion rate until the order window closes in March. I’m personally not going to worry about it other than if I find out I can get a 2021 model say in November, maybe it makes more sense to convert my order to a 2022 model and wait a few months additional for a model with additional features and/or color options.

I’m also likely too much of an optimist, I live in DC and also think Inauguration Day is going to go off without a hitch tomorrow.

Good response, yeah don't disagree. For me, the unknown is the dealer part. If I stay at my assigned dealer, I've been told as of today with the information they have (and will change) I am looking at 2022 with a day 2 res. I guess I could start reaching out to 20-30 dealers that in driving range to see if I can navigate getting above the line for '21 based upon their allocation but I don't think I should have to. I'm crystal clear on all other communication but that one seems stupid.

I'm all in to wait until May and then bail out if it's going to be another year but hopefully, it will work out and will get a '21. Thanks for the example

Sponsored

 

[mrhaj]

I guess I'm glad I ordered a new F-250 Superduty instead of waiting on my Bronco. I'm sure in a couple of years things will be much easier getting a Bronco.

 

[shoelessjoe]

Why cut off reservations, everyone reserving now gets a 2022MY at the earliest?

 

[detroitcarguy]

And this thread is the exact problem with a smaller dealer taking tons of reservations. They will not have allocation! I live outside of Detroit. Outside of Galpin in California, we have the largest Ford stores in the country. Allocation is based on so many other things, regardless of reservations. I was late to the forum party, but I knew this was coming.......

 

[Brichan]

All of you who think you just missed the allocation cut-off or are on the bubble need to go ahead and submit anyhow. I gave a more real world example to our Texas group but it applies here and to all as well. A bit of math for you:

Little Johnny reserved his Bronco on 7/15 at 8am, is number 160 at Brand X dealership, and is upset he is not going to get a MY21 Bronco.

Brand X dealer reservations prior to 9/18 = 300
Estimated dealer allocations = 90 (it has been determined that all dealers received 30% of their pre 9/18 reservations)
Estimated conversion rate per Ford = 70% (all of us here assume it will be much lower)
Estimated buyers wanting MY21 = 80% (based on some internal surveys 20% are wanting to wait for MY22 available options)

If Lil Johnny does not care to have any of the MY22 options and submits his order to Brand X dealership, will he receive a MY21?

The answer is: Yes!*

With only a 70% conversion rate before him, Lil Johnny becomes #112 on the list. (160 x 0.7 = 112)
With only 80% of those converted buyers wanting a MY21, Lil Johnny becomes #90 (112 x .8 =90)
Now, Lil Johnny can sit back and relax and wait until Q4 for his MY21 Bronco arrive.

*Disclaimer (and must be read fast in radio lawyer voice): assuming an equal conversion rate across all dealerships and not taking into account the other 50% of the allocation formula (competing sales and national sales) which we have no way of accounting for at this time. Also assumes that Ford can build the 60k units they said they could for MY21 and does not drastically reduce that number. Also does not assume a Covid factor for there is no telling how that will affect the supply chain.

There’s also the possibility the dealer converts a higher percentage than expected and Ford increases their allocation number. The first allocation number will be different than the actual number.

 

[Brichan]

And this thread is the exact problem with a smaller dealer taking tons of reservations. They will not have allocation! I live outside of Detroit. Outside of Galpin in California, we have the largest Ford stores in the country. Allocation is based on so many other things, regardless of reservations. I was late to the forum party, but I knew this was coming.......

All dealers are being given about 30% of their reservations for their allocations. Doesn’t matter how big or small they are.

 

[PaBronco]

Covid my friends. Delays everything. 400k dead. You can wait

 

[shoelessjoe]

It's the afternoon of the 19th! Has anyone actually, you know, DONE IT YET??

I am pretty sure once

You give Ford way too much credit. They operate in the stone age when it comes to manufacturing and sales. They are strapped for cash and it shows. They only really started this program, the Bronco, maybe, maaaayyyybbee, 1 to 1 1/2 years ago, not the 5 or so everyone is lead to believe. The majority of the content in the vehicle is sourced from 3rd parties and this makes planning a nightmare. They have a giant dealer network that gums everything up, as we have already seen.

edit: Oh, and I forgot to mention the unions.

You think the program only started 1 1/2 years ago? How long do you think it took the designers to come up with the final rendition? Then clay models are made, prototype parts are made. Production Die development takes probably a year minimum. Things just don't happen overnight.

 

[dgorsett]

I'm there with you. Reserved on 7/14, but because of time difference, got reported as 7/15. Just got an email today from dealer saying I'm #53, and their MY21 allocations run out at 45. I assume if I switch dealers, I will miss out as well. Oh well, maybe a good thing to take advantage of new colors, fixed bugs, etc.

If all they did is fix the interior color schemes, it would be worth it.

I would hang in there. I would bet many of the first 45 drop out or order late availability items

 

[JaxGtc]

How can Tesla take a million reservations and not have this much problem. Besides they never fill them?

 

[Compta38]

Covid my friends. Delays everything. 400k dead. You can wait

Then they should have delayed the ENTIRE launch until they had the capabilities to produce information, a competent BnP, material and the capability to fulfill up to at least damn day 2 reservations. We have had dealers taking reservations for 6 months now and Ford can only build enough Broncos to fulfill not even 2 days worth of orders.

 

[Razorbak86]

You give Ford way too much credit... They are strapped for cash and it shows.

That’s simply not true.

Ford ended Q3 2020 with $30 billion in cash and $45 billion in total liquidity. By the end of the quarter, the $15 billion in revolving credit it conservatively drew down in Q1 to maintain financial flexibility in the early days of the pandemic had been fully repaid.

Source: Middle of Page 2...

https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/Ford-3Q-2020-Earnings-Release.pdf

Furthermore, 13.7% of its estimated market valuation is its net cash balance.

 

[Lilj4425]

How can Tesla take a million reservations and not have this much problem. Besides they never fill them?

Because Elon Musk is an American hero and your sensei. Bow down to him.

 

[Mcfly]

A LOT of people placed 2 reservations on7/13 as the information on reveal was very scarce as to how it all worked. Not knowing if you wanted a 2dr, vs 4dr, WT vsBL, etc, almost everyone I remember posting that night made 2 reservations. I’d say this behavior continued the remainder of the week, before it was known that you can change your model at order time. Therefore, especially with day1/day2 reservations, I expect a good chunk will end up cancelling their second order, or holding on to it as leverage for a MY22.

Do hang in there- I’d say you have a very good chance of locking in a MY21 with a 7/14 reservation, once all those duplicate reservations cancel out,

Sponsored