Yeah, I'm a math guy, so I'm figuring dealers will get allocations in the mid 30% range....my 8/14 looks unlikely to get fulfilled in the next year.
I spoke to my dealer today. He read me the info he got. I can not quote his exact words. I was on my cell. Had I been in the office, I could write it word for word. (all calls recorded)
sigh, while some folks seems to be gleefully announcing certain people are screwed big time... let's do some math estimation before falling into a pit of doom and gloom. Ford had 165k reservations in the first two weeks, from the chart on this forum (above) showing distribution of reservation dates, the data is locked so I cannot get an exact number in the first two days, but it eyeballs upwards of 80% was in the first two days.
Three assumptions (which may be false and skew everything, make no mistake, but I believe they are all conservative and will be fairly close)
(assumptions) My first assumption is that the dealer is assuming 100% conversion rate at their specific dealership and the second is that the 80% or so reservations in the first two days holds true for reservations off the forum as well. The third is that Ford gave them a number for allocations and not a percentage of their reservations (which is almost certainly true)
So right off the bat (if the assumptions hold) the dealer has allocations for 80% of all their reservations if they are allocated enough to cover the first two days worth.
If the dealer converts at the 70% (see assumptions for all numbered items) rate which is Ford's best estimate of the conversion rate, will yield some interesting results. (using 200 reservations in the first two days at a hypothetical dealer in the math to come, just so give a better feel for what is happening, it would scale to nationwide if the assumptions are vailid)
1) If 80% of all their reservations were in the first two days and they had 200, then they have 200/0.8 or 250 reservations all together.
2) Since we are arbitrarily fixing the number of reservations in the first two days at 200 and the dealer says they have allocations for that many, they got 200 allocations.
3) if the dealer just took those 200 allocations and went down the list until they counted 200 slots they covered the first two days. That means the dealer assumed 100% conversion rate, meaning 200 (80%) get their '21 and the remaining 50 get a '22 (20%) (maybe true maybe not true, we will circle back at the end).
If the dealer (and by extension most/all dealers) get the 70% conversion rate Ford expects and this dealer still gets 200 units allocated, but will only use 140 of his 200 allocations on the first 200 reservations that gives another 60 for the rest of the post first two day orders. That covers all of them even if they got 100% conversion on the last 50 reservations.
If the reservations convert at lower than 70%, it will mean even more people get their truck in 2021.
Bottom line is that, worst case, 80% of people get a '21 and best case is all of them do with allocations left over, which fits in with Ford having around 30 weeks of production available @ 5000ish units a week on average (150k total units produced) and 195K reservations (70% of which would be 136500 units requested).
This is actually extremely positive news for people that want a '21 and not so great for anyone who wants to be pushed to a '22 unless they are making a reservation today (and if they cancel an earlier one, the move back up one in line as well, so it may not make a difference at all if the commodities all come through.)
to be more precise would require the actual two day numbers from the chart at the top, and verification that the dealer got a set number of allocations (the real number is not needed, just verification it was an actual number and not a percentage)
of course just an exercise in percentages and assumptions, the key take away is even if dealers only get enough allocations to cover the first couple of days, it is almost all the reservations and the remaining ones are going to come relatively quickly.
That was a lot of work...unfortunately Ford has said building 70K Broncos in MY21 is their goal, and your assumed number is almost double that. A lot less people will be getting them than you've figured for.
sigh, while some folks seems to be gleefully announcing certain people are screwed big time... let's do some math estimation before falling into a pit of doom and gloom. Ford had 165k reservations in the first two weeks, from the chart on this forum (above) showing distribution of reservation dates, the data is locked so I cannot get an exact number in the first two days, but it eyeballs upwards of 80% was in the first two days.
Three assumptions (which may be false and skew everything, make no mistake, but I believe they are all conservative and will be fairly close)
(assumptions) My first assumption is that the dealer is assuming 100% conversion rate at their specific dealership and the second is that the 80% or so reservations in the first two days holds true for reservations off the forum as well. The third is that Ford gave them a number for allocations and not a percentage of their reservations (which is almost certainly true)
So right off the bat (if the assumptions hold) the dealer has allocations for 80% of all their reservations if they are allocated enough to cover the first two days worth.
If the dealer converts at the 70% (see assumptions for all numbered items) rate which is Ford's best estimate of the conversion rate, will yield some interesting results. (using 200 reservations in the first two days at a hypothetical dealer in the math to come, just so give a better feel for what is happening, it would scale to nationwide if the assumptions are vailid)
1) If 80% of all their reservations were in the first two days and they had 200, then they have 200/0.8 or 250 reservations all together.
2) Since we are arbitrarily fixing the number of reservations in the first two days at 200 and the dealer says they have allocations for that many, they got 200 allocations.
3) if the dealer just took those 200 allocations and went down the list until they counted 200 slots they covered the first two days. That means the dealer assumed 100% conversion rate, meaning 200 (80%) get their '21 and the remaining 50 get a '22 (20%) (maybe true maybe not true, we will circle back at the end).
If the dealer (and by extension most/all dealers) get the 70% conversion rate Ford expects and this dealer still gets 200 units allocated, but will only use 140 of his 200 allocations on the first 200 reservations that gives another 60 for the rest of the post first two day orders. That covers all of them even if they got 100% conversion on the last 50 reservations.
If the reservations convert at lower than 70%, it will mean even more people get their truck in 2021.
Bottom line is that, worst case, 80% of people get a '21 and best case is all of them do with allocations left over, which fits in with Ford having around 30 weeks of production available @ 5000ish units a week on average (150k total units produced) and 195K reservations (70% of which would be 136500 units requested).
This is actually extremely positive news for people that want a '21 and not so great for anyone who wants to be pushed to a '22 unless they are making a reservation today (and if they cancel an earlier one, the move back up one in line as well, so it may not make a difference at all if the commodities all come through.)
to be more precise would require the actual two day numbers from the chart at the top, and verification that the dealer got a set number of allocations (the real number is not needed, just verification it was an actual number and not a percentage)
of course just an exercise in percentages and assumptions, the key take away is even if dealers only get enough allocations to cover the first couple of days, it is almost all the reservations and the remaining ones are going to come relatively quickly.
When I was in 5th grade I don't remember even caring about politics, religion, or even dating.
Ur too smart and I’m too dumb to figure all of what you just said, but it makes sense to my cornfed, whiskey drinkin ass..I think
sigh, while some folks seems to be gleefully announcing certain people are screwed big time... let's do some math estimation before falling into a pit of doom and gloom. Ford had 165k reservations in the first two weeks, from the chart on this forum (above) showing distribution of reservation dates, the data is locked so I cannot get an exact number in the first two days, but it eyeballs upwards of 80% was in the first two days.
Three assumptions (which may be false and skew everything, make no mistake, but I believe they are all conservative and will be fairly close)
(assumptions) My first assumption is that the dealer is assuming 100% conversion rate at their specific dealership and the second is that the 80% or so reservations in the first two days holds true for reservations off the forum as well. The third is that Ford gave them a number for allocations and not a percentage of their reservations (which is almost certainly true)
So right off the bat (if the assumptions hold) the dealer has allocations for 80% of all their reservations if they are allocated enough to cover the first two days worth.
If the dealer converts at the 70% (see assumptions for all numbered items) rate which is Ford's best estimate of the conversion rate, will yield some interesting results. (using 200 reservations in the first two days at a hypothetical dealer in the math to come, just so give a better feel for what is happening, it would scale to nationwide if the assumptions are vailid)
1) If 80% of all their reservations were in the first two days and they had 200, then they have 200/0.8 or 250 reservations all together.
2) Since we are arbitrarily fixing the number of reservations in the first two days at 200 and the dealer says they have allocations for that many, they got 200 allocations.
3) if the dealer just took those 200 allocations and went down the list until they counted 200 slots they covered the first two days. That means the dealer assumed 100% conversion rate, meaning 200 (80%) get their '21 and the remaining 50 get a '22 (20%) (maybe true maybe not true, we will circle back at the end).
If the dealer (and by extension most/all dealers) get the 70% conversion rate Ford expects and this dealer still gets 200 units allocated, but will only use 140 of his 200 allocations on the first 200 reservations that gives another 60 for the rest of the post first two day orders. That covers all of them even if they got 100% conversion on the last 50 reservations.
If the reservations convert at lower than 70%, it will mean even more people get their truck in 2021.
Bottom line is that, worst case, 80% of people get a '21 and best case is all of them do with allocations left over, which fits in with Ford having around 30 weeks of production available @ 5000ish units a week on average (150k total units produced) and 195K reservations (70% of which would be 136500 units requested).
This is actually extremely positive news for people that want a '21 and not so great for anyone who wants to be pushed to a '22 unless they are making a reservation today (and if they cancel an earlier one, the move back up one in line as well, so it may not make a difference at all if the commodities all come through.)
to be more precise would require the actual two day numbers from the chart at the top, and verification that the dealer got a set number of allocations (the real number is not needed, just verification it was an actual number and not a percentage)
of course just an exercise in percentages and assumptions, the key take away is even if dealers only get enough allocations to cover the first couple of days, it is almost all the reservations and the remaining ones are going to come relatively quickly.
Thank you for your response. I look forward to the email.
2025?
